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Archer Daniels Midland Company Message Board

morpheusmeyers 15 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Nov 21, 2000
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  • Reply to

    earnings seem pretty good

    by georgesmarsh 14 hours ago
    morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers 8 hours ago Flag

    "Your "earnings seem pretty good" statement.

    Companies in growth mode don't lose 7,000 lines, and 30,000 in their core business.

    Whatever happened to that supposed TMobile deal? Lefar talked about white labeling months ago, yet when he was asked about it specifically during today's call he had nothing to say. "Stay tuned," is he for real? He couldn't provide any clarity on the Brazil roll out? He commented about how much they have learned during the launch but they haven't learned how to forecast sales despite having rolled out to 10% of the addressable market?

    If the Brazil roll out is successful then that will hopefully stabilize the core business while VBS continues to show strong growth but that is a big if right now because Lefar doesn't seem to know himself how it's going. He did say that BasicTalk should be stronger in the back half of the year. Whether that's just him blowing hot air or not I have no idea.

    All told just a terrible quarter. Even with recently acquired VBS adding 23,000 lines and a new country roll out Vonage somehow still managed to lose 7,000 lines.

  • Reply to

    earnings seem pretty good

    by georgesmarsh 14 hours ago
    morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers 9 hours ago Flag

    Jasiop,

    I just listened to the earnings call.

    The q&a session didn't provide any answers, just more bull from Lefar. He was asked about white labeling and he said "stay tuned." He was asked about Brazil and said it was too early to be able to predict sales. He blamed the poor performance of BasicTalk on Walmart. He's "pruning" direct sales.

    I've listened to the last 20+ VG earnings calls. This might have been the worst.

    The core business is god awful. VBS gained 23,000 lines so that means the core business lost around 30,000 lines. GLA's sucked and ARPU was down. Thank god they have VBS or the PPS would be far lower than the mid $3's.

    Priority #1. Lefar needs to go ASAP.

    The new CEO should consider divesting the core home business. Sell it to private equity for the cash flow and make yourself a pure play so the company can be valued along the lines of a RNG or EGHT based on its strong growth outlook of VBS.

    I guessed this one wrong. I reloaded recently around $3.50 and was looking to sell some off today on a pop.

  • This will take place as of next Monday, July 28th. Seeking Alpha lists several reasons for discontinuing its relationship with Yahoo including high aggregate amounts paid to Yahoo per click.

    This pertains to Vonage only to the extent that the very few Vonage specific Seeking Alpha articles will no longer be displayed by Yahoo.

    Thought you all would like to know.

  • Reply to

    Facts COUNT - Jasiop - Abridged

    by dgroves0 Jul 22, 2014 9:14 AM
    morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Jul 23, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    "he failed to live up to his reputation."

    Lefar came to Vonage from Cingular Wireless which merged with AT&T Wireless. His reputation was a marketing guru, a dollar driver.

    Even in the article announcing Lefar's hiring way back in 2008 top line growth is mentioned. That was 6 years ago. And ever since Lefar has been dangling the carrot. Remember in 2010 when he said the back half of 2011 would show revenue growth? Then Q3 and Q4 2011 were the worst two revenue producing quarters of that year. It's only in the last few months that Vonage has finally been able to show top line growth and that was because of an acquisition.

    For someone who was grossly overpaid he failed for 5+ years to deliver on the thing he was supposedly an expert at, top line growth. No matter. He'll be out the door before the end of the year and the BOD will turn over the reigns to someone that can hopefully grow the business.

  • Reply to

    Facts COUNT - Jasiop - Abridged

    by dgroves0 Jul 22, 2014 9:14 AM
    morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Jul 22, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    I don't think anyone would argue that had Vonage not received liquidity in the form of a loan shark like loan with high interest rates and convertible debt that the company would have gone BK (especially after the patent infringement lawsuit). Good on Citron and the others who enriched themselves for putting up the funds. Not sure how much credit Lefar deserves for the debt deal but he did release Vonage World in 09' which slowed the bleeding (of lost lines) and stabilized the business.

    Did Lefar save the company? Debatable, but let's say yes.

    My issue with Lefar has always been two things. 1) He's grossly overpaid and 2) For a marketing guy (former CMO of Cingular Wireless) he has for years not delivered on his promises.

    Thankfully I purchased my core position in the $1's and have traded in and out over the last few years to make some extra bucks, but I am in no way happy with Lefar's performance. If he had delivered on things like a cheap SMS plan which he called "low hanging fruit" then the stock might be at $6, $8, or $10 now instead of stuck in $3-4 land. I will be glad to see him go. Get Kellum or anyone else in who can drive real top line growth and let's get the PPS back to it's IPO price of $17.

  • morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Jul 12, 2014 11:14 PM Flag

    FWIW, Leslie Arena VG's VP of Investor Relations the last few years just took a similar job at Angie's List.

  • Reply to

    In at 33.80

    by goldoking7777 Jun 17, 2014 11:58 AM
    morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Jun 18, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    The miners have been garbage for so long that some investors think they are forever trash. If they have really bottomed, though and gold can move back to 1,300-1,400 an ounce as some have forecast then this 3x could really rip.

    IF, an investors favorite and most hated word.

  • morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Jun 4, 2014 9:39 PM Flag

    No one ever asks questions during the shareholder meeting except me. A couple of years ago I asked the only two questions. Last year I don't think anyone asked any. This year same.

  • morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Jun 3, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    Jake,

    If you check Level 2 that was me that just bought 15,000 shares a couple of minutes ago at $3.529. Been waiting for $3.50 for awhile after selling off some in the $4.50's.

  • morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers May 15, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    ...here and now.

  • morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers May 15, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    "I have a friend who uses Whatzapp extensively."

    I read recently that a huge chunk of all messaging in Mexico is Whatsapp. 80-90% if I remember right. Also, it has been forecast that Whatsapp could handle more message traffic than ALL current texting traffic in the next year or two. It's literally THE way to message in many countries.

    Yeah, we have discussed the offnet texting fumble before. If money had been poured into that instead of AMDOCS then the PPS would likely be at all time highs right now.

    As for the hear and now...let VG continue to buy shares in the $3's while Vocalocity continues to grow and Brazil produces new revenues.

  • morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers May 15, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    Unfortunately, the push to $7-10 PPS is going to be like watching grass grow.

    Woulda coulda shoulda...VG should have offered offnet texting when their mobile app was released. If they had they could have been a player in the mobile market. Maybe even a Whatsapp instead of an after thought.

    Brazil will help, but how much? Wait and see over the next few quarters.

    International roaming? Sounds cool but will it be a money maker? Hopefully VG can license it to bigger operators so they can monetize it.

    Maybe they will announce another deal similar to the one with Datora? Mexico or India, maybe?

    Thankfully they bought Vocalocity. Like the growth outlook. Need that segment of the enterprise to become a larger piece of the pie. If so will make sense for Kellum to take over.

    Silver lining? The company can buy back shares in the mid $3's instead of the $4's for the time being. That's not a bad thing.

  • morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers May 15, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    Virtual shareholder meeting again. No shock there.

    Have you ever known a VG shareholder meeting to be anything other than a 30 minute in and out with no material news? That's been the last five of them, anyway.

    VG is far more likely to issue an 8-K on the same day as earnings. I can't remember them ever doing so in conjunction with an ASM.

    In short, VG ASM's are a non event. That's not a bad thing but if you are looking for breaking news you're due for a letdown.

  • Reply to

    irrational drop

    by zencamebronson May 15, 2014 10:36 AM
    morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers May 15, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    Jake,

    If you recall, I sold a big chunk of my position at $4.65 a few months ago and said I was looking for a $3.50 PPS to reload. Since then I have traded in and out of a few issues but haven't bought VG back. I do still own shares in it, though.

    Anyway, once again the PPS is getting to the point where I am keeping a close eye on it. Doesn't mean I will necessarily buy but at this level it is getting interesting again.

    At $4+ with a forward multiple well into the 20's, no way.

    Side note, one thing unappealing about VG (and small caps in general) is that you're not paid to wait. There is no volume in call buying so it is difficult to write covered calls unless you want to get waxed by the market maker for little premium, and it doesn't pay a dividend. So as a long you're just getting blown with the wind.

  • morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers May 1, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    This was a good quarter, especially on revs. Looking forward to catching the earnings call reply this evening.

    As far as Brazil's potential, I want to see the results. Q2 will give investors more clarity since Brazil went live this month.

    BasicTalk expansion via more retailers...that's a bonus. Interested to hear what Lefar says about it during the Q&A session.

    All in all, solid quarter. Would have liked to have seen more than 2 cents in GAAP earnings, but a top line rev increase is the big story here imo.

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