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BP plc Message Board

morpheusmeyers 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 8, 2014 4:00 PM Member since: Nov 21, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Responses wanted from investors only....

    by watertownadvisor Sep 5, 2014 11:46 AM
    morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Sep 8, 2014 4:00 PM Flag

    "why or why not buy VG at this level?"

    The last quarter stunk, with lower revenues in Q2 than in Q1. Lefar attributed the anemic GLA's in the core business (BasicTalk specifically) to a Walmart inventory issue and stated that that was a one time thing. So...

    If you buy what Lefar is selling, BasicTalk GLA's should be higher in Q3 than Q2. That will certainly help. And Vocalocity revenue growth should continue to be strong.

    There's your reason(s) to buy IF you believe Lefar regarding GLA's. A new CEO announcement should help the PPS, too.

    Also, Brazil should help revenues, but we won't know by how much until the Q3 results are announced.

    One other thing. Since the share price dropped to around $3.20 this quarter the company should have been able to buy back another 3-4 million shares in Q3 at fairly attractive levels.

    With all of that said, if this quarter shows continued weakness in the core business look out below.

  • morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Aug 2, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    "SMB acquisition."

    Yeah, Pearson alluded to that during the earnings call. Wouldn't mind that.

    The one big positive (Capt. Obvious here) is VBS/SMB. VBS did $19 million in revs in Q1 and $23 million in Q2 which puts it on pace for approximately $90 million in 2014 revs, or about 10-15% of total Vonage revs. If that growth rate continues into 2015 which it should then VBS should produce about $145 million in 15' revs.

    Hopefully Brazil will contribute substantially to Q3 GLA's. Since it was only released to 10% of the addressable market with just a few weeks left in Q2 it probably didn't contribute jack to Q2 GLA's. I still think Lefar could have provided some color regarding future Brazil numbers, but whatev. It was released recently to Sao Paulo so no excuses this quarter. Sign em up.

    Lefar said BasicTalk should be stronger in the back half of 2014. So hopefully the Walmart/inventory issue was a 1 time thing and that contributed substantially to the disastrous 30,000 lines lost in the core biz. No excuse for the rotten Q2 GLA number...just don't let it happen again :)

    211 million shares outstanding with another 20+ million left in the current share repurchase plan. So by the end of 14' the share count should be in the 200-205 million range. Better.

    Hopefully Kellum or whomever is named the new CEO no later than the next earnings call.

  • Reply to

    earnings seem pretty good

    by georgesmarsh Jul 31, 2014 9:33 AM
    morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Jul 31, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    "Your "earnings seem pretty good" statement.

    Companies in growth mode don't lose 7,000 lines, and 30,000 in their core business.

    Whatever happened to that supposed TMobile deal? Lefar talked about white labeling months ago, yet when he was asked about it specifically during today's call he had nothing to say. "Stay tuned," is he for real? He couldn't provide any clarity on the Brazil roll out? He commented about how much they have learned during the launch but they haven't learned how to forecast sales despite having rolled out to 10% of the addressable market?

    If the Brazil roll out is successful then that will hopefully stabilize the core business while VBS continues to show strong growth but that is a big if right now because Lefar doesn't seem to know himself how it's going. He did say that BasicTalk should be stronger in the back half of the year. Whether that's just him blowing hot air or not I have no idea.

    All told just a terrible quarter. Even with recently acquired VBS adding 23,000 lines and a new country roll out Vonage somehow still managed to lose 7,000 lines.

  • Reply to

    earnings seem pretty good

    by georgesmarsh Jul 31, 2014 9:33 AM
    morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Jul 31, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    Jasiop,

    I just listened to the earnings call.

    The q&a session didn't provide any answers, just more bull from Lefar. He was asked about white labeling and he said "stay tuned." He was asked about Brazil and said it was too early to be able to predict sales. He blamed the poor performance of BasicTalk on Walmart. He's "pruning" direct sales.

    I've listened to the last 20+ VG earnings calls. This might have been the worst.

    The core business is god awful. VBS gained 23,000 lines so that means the core business lost around 30,000 lines. GLA's sucked and ARPU was down. Thank god they have VBS or the PPS would be far lower than the mid $3's.

    Priority #1. Lefar needs to go ASAP.

    The new CEO should consider divesting the core home business. Sell it to private equity for the cash flow and make yourself a pure play so the company can be valued along the lines of a RNG or EGHT based on its strong growth outlook of VBS.

    I guessed this one wrong. I reloaded recently around $3.50 and was looking to sell some off today on a pop.

  • This will take place as of next Monday, July 28th. Seeking Alpha lists several reasons for discontinuing its relationship with Yahoo including high aggregate amounts paid to Yahoo per click.

    This pertains to Vonage only to the extent that the very few Vonage specific Seeking Alpha articles will no longer be displayed by Yahoo.

    Thought you all would like to know.

  • Reply to

    Facts COUNT - Jasiop - Abridged

    by dgroves0 Jul 22, 2014 9:14 AM
    morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Jul 23, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    "he failed to live up to his reputation."

    Lefar came to Vonage from Cingular Wireless which merged with AT&T Wireless. His reputation was a marketing guru, a dollar driver.

    Even in the article announcing Lefar's hiring way back in 2008 top line growth is mentioned. That was 6 years ago. And ever since Lefar has been dangling the carrot. Remember in 2010 when he said the back half of 2011 would show revenue growth? Then Q3 and Q4 2011 were the worst two revenue producing quarters of that year. It's only in the last few months that Vonage has finally been able to show top line growth and that was because of an acquisition.

    For someone who was grossly overpaid he failed for 5+ years to deliver on the thing he was supposedly an expert at, top line growth. No matter. He'll be out the door before the end of the year and the BOD will turn over the reigns to someone that can hopefully grow the business.

  • Reply to

    Facts COUNT - Jasiop - Abridged

    by dgroves0 Jul 22, 2014 9:14 AM
    morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Jul 22, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    I don't think anyone would argue that had Vonage not received liquidity in the form of a loan shark like loan with high interest rates and convertible debt that the company would have gone BK (especially after the patent infringement lawsuit). Good on Citron and the others who enriched themselves for putting up the funds. Not sure how much credit Lefar deserves for the debt deal but he did release Vonage World in 09' which slowed the bleeding (of lost lines) and stabilized the business.

    Did Lefar save the company? Debatable, but let's say yes.

    My issue with Lefar has always been two things. 1) He's grossly overpaid and 2) For a marketing guy (former CMO of Cingular Wireless) he has for years not delivered on his promises.

    Thankfully I purchased my core position in the $1's and have traded in and out over the last few years to make some extra bucks, but I am in no way happy with Lefar's performance. If he had delivered on things like a cheap SMS plan which he called "low hanging fruit" then the stock might be at $6, $8, or $10 now instead of stuck in $3-4 land. I will be glad to see him go. Get Kellum or anyone else in who can drive real top line growth and let's get the PPS back to it's IPO price of $17.

  • morpheusmeyers morpheusmeyers Jul 12, 2014 11:14 PM Flag

    FWIW, Leslie Arena VG's VP of Investor Relations the last few years just took a similar job at Angie's List.

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