If you look at last years chart of UNG the high wasn't reached until mid April to late . Storage levels are much lower now. That's why people still hold UNG. It decayed over 7 years because it s a trading vehicle, not a buy and hold. Do you have any idea what you are talking about???
No jc, you made the statement that starting in April we would see all of these 100+ injections which would drive down the price. I went back and looked and there wasn't one last year in April. Yes, there was one in May but then not again until the fall shoulder season. My whole thesis is that with the historically low storage levels the futures prices are telling us there will be a bid under prices thru the summer.....enough said.
You and I are pretty much on the same page billy. I was prepared to trade DGAZ this spring but with the low storage levels I'm not so sure we'll see the pull back of prior years. I feel the futures prices are saying the same thing. And if the administration oks shipping LNG to East Europe, Watch out, we know what the prices are over there.
I never said prices this winter have been rational, quite the opposite. "futures curve", did you make that up?? And go back and look at the EIA's historical prices last year. There was not one 100bcf build last spring. do some homework son.
Agreed Billy but my point is that you should see some seasonal price variation built into the futures by this time of year, backwardation. There is none.
You obviously haven't looked at this summers futures. Aug is exactly where April is with only a .05 range in between. Trading without doing your homework is a childs game. Do some homework son. Contango, you must think that's a dance.
Have you looked at the futures prices thru the summer? There is virtually no backwardation thru August. The futures markets are pricing in tight supply thru the shoulder season and summer. I only see a surprise to the up side if any surprise at all. Like a few hurricanes in the Gulf this summer. Next Fall should be interesting.
I just looked back over the last couple of weeks and you could have made some $$$$. Not really for me but if you did that Fri you will be handsomely rewarded tomorrow morning.
June and July have moved as well. I think they are telling us that we may have higher prices thru the shoulder season.
Three weeks from tomorrow storage will be 900 bcf based upon powerburn numbers. There is only one way Nat Gas can go from here. Hello 6's
You make pretty good arguments for lower process Captain but....by the time the next four storage draws are announced, 3/20, storage levels will be around 900bcf. If you think current prices factor in that you need your dead examined.
I think the April contract will be well into the 5s by the end of the week. Maybe approaching 6 by the end of next week. The next two draws will have storage near triple digits.