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Teavana Holdings, Inc. Message Board

motsam 370 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 14, 2014 10:57 AM Member since: Jan 11, 2002
  • Barring some unforeseen catastrophe, I assume there was a downgrade today. They jus raised 160 million and on top of a cash balance already I project their cash balance EOY to be over 300M with no debt. At these prices, this is a pure value play. Next two years will be profitable with the strong PJM auctions so know the stabilility in the short term is there. Not sweating this!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ENOC 2nd half of year and beyond...

    by motsam Aug 29, 2014 3:52 PM
    motsam motsam Oct 8, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    Agree - another note of interest. Looking on Their website and it looks like they are in the process of ramping up their Korean operations. Lots of job openings, wonder if news is pending there....

  • Hopefully We will start to see some solid traction and ramp-up in the Customer and Utility EIS side by EOY as they try and upsell their existing customer base as stated on the calls with the idea that 2015 and 2016 this biz will explode - that's the dream.

    Regarding DR - I think Japan and Europe is going to be a late 2015 story but potential for huge revenues.... keep in mind that the price we pay for a MW in the US is practically a third less than what most countries around the world are used to paying. If a 5 MW market like Aust/NZ can generate 50M in Revs in 2013 what can an 80 MW overseas generate? JP - I think your crazy to jump off this ship now as I think there are some great stories yet to be told on this front.

    GLTA!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PJM Results for 2014

    by lesserfool75 May 23, 2014 5:25 PM
    motsam motsam May 24, 2014 5:43 AM Flag

    Contracts are structured based on what they refer to as 'splits' (Basically shared percentage of revenue received from DR programs). Using basic math - lasts years' clearing price was $59 and it jumped up to $120 this year so doubling. Assuming they secured the same amount of DR as last year (about 4 GW), we should see about $280 Million in revenues announced come Tuesday morning. The drop-off in DR amounts in this year's auction I find interesting. I suspect this is due to consolidation in the industry and small time players not being able to compete with the big boys anymore as well as the increased regulatory scrutiny and requirements for DR. Unsure what the impact of the court ruling on FERC exactly means - its clearly not good for DR and DR aggregators but I believe this story broke during the day while the markets were open so market reaction appears to already have been baked in at this point.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on Earnings

    by jpmarketer May 3, 2014 8:51 AM
    motsam motsam May 3, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    JP – Nice encapsulation. I’d like to add some surprising upsides in the short run that have not been mentioned on this board at all. One is the story in the NYISO where revenue for DR is set to double and expand. Go to Greentech Media and search New York Demand Response and you’ll see what I’m talking about. This will be an immediate benefit to EnerNOC’s numbers in 2014 and I believe could be a catalyst for increasing their revenue numbers.

    Another potential other catalyst I believe in recent highs is the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the decision to regulate smog generated from coal plants that cross state lines – this will create additional pressure on the coal industry and increase the attractiveness of renewable energy and demand response.

    Regarding The EIS SAAS solution – EnerNOC is right on the money that this is a huge market but here are the biggest hurdles: Customer education, customer adoption AND differentiated markets. A customer in the PJM marketplace is going to have different EIS challenges than a customer in the PG&E marketplace. This is not a straightforward cookie-cutter, one-size-fits-all application that is needed. Throw on top of that the varying challenges on how the customer needs the EIS to work and you have a very complex system that needs to be created. I’m not saying it’s a pipe dream, but I believe they are just in the process of laying the groundwork of getting there at this point and are still 2 years out from the holy grail.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • motsam motsam Mar 12, 2014 12:49 PM Flag

    Their Big conference is two weeks away. Usually companies like to make big splash announcements prior to the conferences to gain momentum going in. I wouldnt be surprised if we see that this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Effect Of All This News?

    by citamar Feb 13, 2014 6:08 PM
    motsam motsam Feb 13, 2014 6:53 PM Flag

    My comments at this point based on results and the Conference Call:

    Fantastic news on their penetration into the European market. They are executing as promised on their International strategy over the past few months.

    The Japanese DR market is 170 GW, Germany 80 GW, and Ireland 5 GW. These are sizeable but are at least 2 years out before any meaningful impact to the bottom line. Nationally, Texas is also a ppotential catalyst but sounds to be a few years out as well.

    The SaaS strategy is the real deal but is going to take time to develop. Their biggest problem is not market penetration as they are already in most of their potential customer’s locations with a DR offering but customer education. They are right on the mark with what is slowly happening out there – a need for an enterprise energy management system that all stakeholders can rely on and go to but internally to these customers it is a complicated sell. My feeling is this thing will take off but is at least 2 years out before it grows exponentially. For now I suspect a slow growth as early adopters proof out the concept.

    Solid 4th Quarter with no big surprise. The guidance is disappointing as I feel it is scaled back from previous expectations.

    What up with Healy and his attitude on the conference call? At times he seemed annoyed and others very indifferent. No idea what to make of that.

    So overall – its hard to get the valuation right at this juncture. If you look short term, and slap a multiple on then you are where you guys say you are. If you go pie-in the-sky longterm on the potential market growth in DR and substantial traction in their SaaS offering then who knows?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Load curtailment from demand response programs is set to nearly triple over the next seven years, growing from 57.8 gigawatts (GW) to 140.5 GW in 2020, according to a new study from Navigant Research.

    “Today, nearly three quarters of demand response activity takes place in the US,” said Brett Feldman, a senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “With a few exceptions, utilities in Europe and the Asia-Pacific have only recently become interested in using demand response to balance the supply and demand of electric power.”

    “Many utilities in these regions are expected to ramp up their adoption of demand response in the years ahead.”

    Navigant Research notes that one of the most important developments in the demand response market in the last ten years has been the automation of processes.

    Automation involves minimal or no manual intervention, points out the market-research company, and has led to major improvements in the efficiency, cost effectiveness, reliability and speed of peak reduction and grid balancing.

    Data gathered by Navigant Research indicates that more than 37,400 sites across the world were enabled for automated demand response in 2013.

    It expects that figure to rise to more than 151,000 sites by 2020.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Already down 27% in pre-market.... curious to see if it has an impact on ENOC's stock today but lets hope not!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    White Flag

    by jpmarketer Jan 14, 2014 2:44 PM
    motsam motsam Jan 15, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    JP - In spending some time getting my head around this I believe the cause of the spike is really due to pure market psychology - nothing more and nothing less. A few factors to consider is there has been a lot of media coverage of the clean tech sector in the past few weeks (Anyone see the 60 mins story even though it was negative did provide for some heavy discussions) and the sale of Nest Labs to Google for 3 Billion this week gave this sector a lot of attention.

    Is ENOC getting ahead of itself? This can be debated all day based on the numbers and what we know. The fact they are working on entering new international markets and trying to pioneer the Energy Info Sys market creates a great story and high hopes. Two big factors that, given an optimistic market, can fan this stock higher and ignoring the fundamental values of value investing. Hard to know if this is the case of course until its too late!

    -Motsam

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    White Flag

    by jpmarketer Jan 14, 2014 2:44 PM
    motsam motsam Jan 14, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    Sorry to be right for your sake JP, it has been quite a ride the past few weeks.... Any thoughts from anyone as to Nest Labs getting bought for 3 Billion? Its on the consumer side of this market but they do in ways perform the same functionality that ENOC does - provide a service that helps reduce energy consumption and provides a software platform to provide visibility in order to do so. Its hard not to speculate but you wonder if this entire sector is just going to skyrocket this year. We are in a bullish phase here so its hard not to get too over-excited on what may be happening.

    - Motsam

  • motsam motsam Jan 12, 2014 9:39 PM Flag

    Points well taken. It is difficult to gage the speed of adoption of their enterprise software solution since A) it is still in its gestational stage and how it plays out remains to be seen.

    For what its worth and being from the area, I had taken the liberty to actually visit their office in Boston to validate my long position a few months back and was really impressed with what they call their 'NOC' and more importantly the people that were running it. Employees were really committed to 'the cause' of 'changing how the world uses energy' which definitely gave me an extreme vote of confidence that this was a real company with people who are really committed to making things happen. Of course at the end of the day you still need a plan and a product to succeed and that is what they are attempting to set out to do.

    On a valuation note, I am a firm believer in GAAP reporting as the rule of book but it is interesting to note that there is a multiverse out there that believes in finding the true valuation on Non-GAAP financials which would put ENOC ~ $1.55 a share in earnings for 2013. Put in a 15x earnings valuation and you get $23.25. If this valuation method is coming back into vogue then higher days are indeed ahead of us...

    - Motsam

  • motsam motsam Jan 12, 2014 12:16 AM Flag

    I don't buy the fact that the latest jump is the result of ENOC's involvement with the Polar Vortex DR programs. Keep in mind they get paid on previously determined capacity payments regardless if they get called upon or not. The Deep freeze, if anything, confirmed their business model and the importance their service provides to the stability of the grid.

    With that said, my initial reaction of the sizeable run-up is that they are essentially being bought. JP - you have been remarkably accurate in your post predictions but No way would I consider going short with the momentum this stock is beginning to show. More positives than negatives at this point. I still believe their SAAS strategy is the real pony that could make this stock go gangbusters long term - and if the market buys into that then absurd valuations are in its future (Workday and Salesforce anyone?).

  • Reply to

    Impact of cold weather

    by shabdul83 Jan 8, 2014 10:14 AM
    motsam motsam Jan 8, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    One thing I havent seen mentioned at all is that in the last two years since the last FERC ruling, ENOC has substantially built up their regulatory and lobbying efforts - this should not go unoticed. They are no longer a wimpy green energy company rolling with the Big Guys (PJM) punches. They have some slout to influence decisions. I optimistically suspect the movements over the past few days is the result of an anticipated favorable ruling.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Price Action looks Rough

    by jpmarketer Nov 25, 2013 10:35 AM
    motsam motsam Nov 25, 2013 1:11 PM Flag

    I pretty much share your sentiments here. I will say, however there are potential catalysts that could shoot this thing up short term:
    1) Large, unanticipated utiltiy contracts
    2) Announcements on entering new markets (Japan, Germany, China)
    3) Favorable Regulatory rulings
    4) Company being purchased

    Long term, I find it hard to believe that there is absolutely no interest out there from larger fish on making #4 happen. Company is now profitable and more easily given a valuation and has some nice profitable growth for the next few years at least. I really think the 30s are in our future in the next few months. Next year's earnings I think can get over $1, NON-GAAP earnings well over $1. Lots of revenue growth in its future with new international and local markets and transforming the company into a market leader in EIS make this stock very compelling. High potential for stock to blow up when EIS takes off. I have no problem sitting on this long term for all the above reasons...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • motsam motsam Oct 29, 2013 10:09 AM Flag

    My pessimistic perspective is the Analyst Day is to do damage control from a bitterly disappointing 3Q report

    My optimistic perspective is the Analyst Day is to build upon the momentum from a blow out quarter with beats on Revenues and income and a FY2014 estimate that is way beyond analysts expectiations.

    How's that?

  • This is pretty exciting deal. Australia's largest electric distributor using ENOC as its facilitator for DR. Validates their cloud software platform. I would anticipate more and more deals similar to this to be done in the near future...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • DR has been all over the media this past week with the Heat Wave in the North East. EnerNOC of course along with it. The key takeaway for Q2 earnings is not what Q2 earnings are but what their projections for Q3 are. The company appears to be shining this week in pulling MW off the grid. Should be interesting what happens in TX next week with a heat wave about to move in to that area. They don't have nearly the reserves or DR capacity programs that PJM or IS-ONE has and could be caught with their pants down as a result. May be a HUGE wakeup call for ERCOT to get their act together and get with the program!

  • Reply to

    Lessorfool

    by kingsalt Jun 7, 2013 11:26 AM
    motsam motsam Jun 21, 2013 7:42 AM Flag

    I think everyone is looking into the sales of Brewster and Healy way too much. These are very common 10b5 selling plans that the insiders set up. They are scheduled and agreed upon sales that take place. Also keep in mind that Healy and Brewster each have well over 1 Million shares of the company and he is selling them at the rate of 10K per month. At this rate it will take them over 10 years to sell all their shares. This also does not take into consideration that they are awarded shares as part of compensation every year as well.

    I see no alarms in their recent sales and look at it as a very rationale financial move as the executives have essentially all of their wealth tied to this company. It only makes sense they want to pull some of that wealth out and diversify their personal finances.

    The recent director purchase is a very positive sign that insiders are bullish here. It'd be great if we see some more of that happen. Outside of any BIG news coming out regarding future expansions or contracts it will all come down to if they can knock it out of the park in Q3. All signals point north.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Takeout candidate says Raymond James

    by stocktries Jun 4, 2013 1:39 PM
    motsam motsam Jun 9, 2013 2:00 PM Flag

    I think they'd be crazy to seriously consider offers at this point. Great visibility over the next 3 years and many more markets for their business to enter and expand in. Cash flow-positive company, they are not on death's door here so there is no urgency in cashing out! Stay the course and let the stock rise naturally into the 40s -50s over the next few years and then start courting offers...

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