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mpaulenoff 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 7, 2015 1:48 PM Member since: Mar 11, 2013
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  • AEO Gets Upgrade Right at Breakout Plateau - American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) was upgraded to Market Perform from Under Perform by Cowen research this morning, which has goosed the stock above its 2+ year resistance line at 14.10) to its prior rally peak at 14.48 on Dec 3.

    If hurdled and sustained above 14.48 on a closing basis, AEO should be in route to test much more important resistance at 15.10/15.

    If taken out, it will trigger upside projections derived off of the prior 12-month base-accumulation pattern that points to the 20-target zone.

    At this juncture, only a reversal and break below the 200-day EMA, now at 13.27, will wreck the promising technical set-up in AEO.

  • Benchmark 10-Year Yield Gives Back All of Its Q3 GDP Upside - U.S. benchmark 10-year Yield continues to stair-step to the downside in the days following the Dec 23 upward revision in US Q3 GDP.

    Yield peaked on Dec 24 at 2.31%, but has since slinked its way back down to 2.17%.

    Huh? Strange action in the instrument that is supposedly a sensitive barometer of economic growth.

    Then again, maybe Yield is telling us the truth—that US economic growth of 5% either is a mirage, or represents a brief spurt that already passed?

    Whatever the case, all of the action in Yield above 2.23% last week now looks like a nasty Bull Trap ahead of the resumption of dominant downtrend weakness.

    Meanwhile, related or not, spot Gold seems to be acting just the opposite of YIELD—perhaps reflecting the growth headfake, which will put pressure on the U.S. Dollar, and raise expectations that the Fed might have to reconsider more QE to ward off deflation?

  • The Dollar and Gold- The New Normal? I am not sure what to make of the U.S. Dollar (DXY) vs Spot GOLD relationship recently, because it has certainly been counter-intuitive, not to mention counter-historical.

    It is unusual to have such a strong Dollar concurrent with such a resilient Gold price.

    That said, the relationship is not counter-seasonal, however.

    When the Dollar has a pronounced direction heading into Dec, it usually continues into year end, while Dec usually resides within the seasonally-strong Nov-Mar time period for GOLD.

    Be that as it may, the multi-month DXY uptrend is considerably more powerful than the budding GOLD recovery rally, at this point, GOLD must climb and sustain above heavy resistance at $1255/60 to trigger any meaningful upside traction.

    Bottom Line: My suspicion is that the strong Dollar is approaching a peak in and around 90.00, and that an oversold, under-owned, gold market is ripe for a recovery rally at a minimum, and a surprisingly strong upmove, if, in fact, the Dollar is peaking.

  • Spot Gold Shows a Bit of Resiliency - Below is what we discussed late yesterday. My analysis and outlook remain unchanged. MJP 11/11/14

    I must admit, I was just a bit surprised that spot GOLD relinquished two-thirds of last week's recovery rally in a matter of a few hours.

    The question now is whether or not a relief rally already is over, which would mean that today's weakness represents the start of a new bear leg?

    Although I do think GOLD has another downleg ahead that will press it into the $1080/50 target zone, my work argues that the recovery rally from last Thursday’s low at $1131.85 to Friday’s high at $1179.17 is incomplete, and "needs" another bout of strength into the $1180-$1200 target zone prior to the resumption of dominant downtrend weakness.

    Of course, if spot GOLD is unable to lift from the $1150 area, and instead plunges to new lows straight away, the action will speak for itself, and we should expect $1080/50 soon thereafter.

    For now, however, I am looking for stability above $1145 to be followed by a run at Friday's high. MJP 11/10/14

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on USO on his MPTrader site, noting: Oil vs. Natural Gas Divergence Expands - Nearby Crude Oil has pressed beneath $76.00 for the first time since Oct, 2011, and is threatening to fully test the Oct 4, 2011, low at $74.95.

    That said, however, let's notice that today's new mutli-year low has not been confirmed by my daily RSI momentum gauge (at least not yet), which could be the first indication that the decline from the June high at $107.73 is at, or is nearing, exhaustion ahead of a meaningful, tradable recovery rally.

    As for Natural Gas, it is up again this morning, challenging its modestly down-sloping 200-day EMA, now at 4.095, which might not be hurdled on the initial attempt, but, nonetheless, is in jeopardy according to my medium-term pattern and momentum analysis.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on AAPL on his MPTrader site, noting: AAPL Grinds Higher Towards A Measured Target Zone - In technical analysis, when you have a price structure that is heading for not one, but two, overlapping targets, then the target zone acts more like a magnet than otherwise.

    Such is the case for Apple Inc. (AAPL) as it continues to climb off of its 7-week upside breakout from the Sept-Oct trading range, which has a maximum upside target off 112.00 to 114.20 calculated from the measured move off of the trading range and the upper channel boundary of the post-Oct 15 advance.

    In the absence of a new, bullish catalyst, I will be expecting AAPL to stall and reverse from the above mentioned target zone.

    Otherwise, a decline that breaks 107.40 also will trigger corrective sill signals.

  • FB Heading into Earnings: How Much More Immediate Upside? Facebook, Inc. (FB), coming on the heels of a 15% upmove since Oct 15, tonight's price reaction to earnings, appears to be a tricky situation at best, and a dangerous situation otherwise.
    Let's notice that FB climbed to a new all-time high at 81.16 today, which propelled the stock marginally above its Mar-Oct (dotted on chart) resistance line.
    Thus far, FB has not accelerated to the upside after taking out the line, suggesting that investors are awaiting another bullish catalyst to buy the stock, which may or may not come in the form of a blow-out earnings report later today.
    The juxtaposition of the price structure atop a mutli-month "Rising Wedge" formation in the aftermath of a 15% near-vertical upmove amidst unconfirmed momentum (RSI) seems to me to be a prescription for a "sell-the-news" reaction to EPS.

    While I would not be surprised to see FB knee-jerk to still higher-highs into the 83-84 target zone, its current technical set-up is warning me that any such upmove is unlikely to be sustainable, and instead, will be used by investors to sell the strength ahead of a correction that should revisit the 73.00-70.00 support area relatively quickly.

GDX
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