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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Message Board

mpaulenoff 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 23, 2014 1:43 PM Member since: Mar 11, 2013
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  • A Look at FB Ahead of Q2 Earnings - Heading into this evening’s earnings report, Facebook, Inc. (FB) stock finds itself trading at 4-1/2 month highs, 28% above its post-EPS April low at 54.66, and in mildly overbought condition.

    This suggests strongly that the company needs to produce stellar results for Q2 to trigger a sustainable positive-price reaction from currently “elevated” pre-EPS price levels.

    Let’s notice that FB is pushing up against its July high at 69.96, as well as its April-July upper-channel boundary, now at 70.80, which, if hurdled, will point towards a full-fledged test of its March all-time high at 72.72.

    Only a sustained break of 68.00 will begin to inflict initial technical damage to the currently bullish near-term set-up, while a break of 66.00 is needed to neutralize it altogether.

  • What Next for GOOG? From an intermediate-term perspective, Google Inc. (GOOG) hit a 5-1/2 year high at 614.44 in Feb 2014.

    The question is whether or not the correction into the Apr 2014 low at 502.80 (-18%) represents a completed corrective phase, which, if yes, means that Google Inc. (GOOG) is in a new upleg within its multi-year bull market.

    As of this moment, the answer appears to be yes, and will remain "yes" unless GOOG fails to move higher towards a test of its all-time high at 614.44, and instead reverses and declines beneath key, near-term support at 569-565, initiating the first warning signal that the April-July 2014 advance is, in fact, an "intervening" rally within a larger-developing correction off of the Feb 2014 high.

    Should such a scenario unfold, then GOOG will be vulnerable to a press into critical support at 510-500.

  • My Intermediate-Term Work in Spot Silver Remains Promising - Spot Silver reversed from its 20.34, one-week corrective low off of last week's high at $21.65, to 21.28, which my near-term work indicates represents a completed correction and the start of a new upleg.

    If that proves accurate, then we should expect a climb above $21.65, on the way to a test of higher, multi-month resistance at $22.20.

  • INTC Earnings Reaction May Just be the Start of a Larger Upmove - Intel Corporation (INTC) 6% up-spike in reaction to positive EPS and optimistic guidance about the future of the PC business (after 2-3 years of existential concern) has propelled the stock right to a test of the upper-boundary line of its price channel now at 33.55 from the Feb. 2009 low at 12.05.

    So far, in today's action, INTC is trading just above the upper-boundary line, which begs the question of whether or not the price structure will stall at all prior to embarking on much higher upside trek off of a 10-year base pattern towards 38.00, and possibly to 44.00?

    While I cannot argue against taking some profits on INTC here (for anyone who is long), my work indicates that INTC otherwise is "a keeper," as well as a "buy into weakness" if it should correct into the vicinity of 30.00.

  • XME vs 10-Year Treasury Yield - We can make the technical argument that not only has the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) developed a multi-year base formation, since late 2011, it also has tracked the basing formation carved-out by U.S. 10-year Yield, suggesting that the XME and its underlying components have been extremely sensitive to longer-term interest rates and Fed interest-rate policy.

    Only during the most recent 5 weeks do we see budding evidence of a positive divergence between the Metals & Mining Sectors on one hand, and 10-year Yield on the other (see shaded area of chart).

    The XME is testing its 2014 highs, whereas Yield is nearly 50 bps beneath its December 31, 2013 high at 3.04%, which suggests either that economic fundamentals are improving, or perceived to be so, or, the longer-term rates (Fed Policy) is falling further behind "the curve," or both.

    That said, however, XME must climb and sustain above 43.42 to confirm an upside breakout that points next to 48-50.

  • Dr. Copper is Beginning to Rumble on the Upside - Both Spot Copper and copper producer Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) have the right look of "bottoms-in-progress."

    Whether the back-story is global (US and China) economic growth acceleration, or a very accommodating Fed that overstays its NZIRP, or both, "Dr. Copper" and its derivatives appear to be setting up significant longer-term bottoms-- presumably ahead of a period of sustained upside.

    Copper Miner FCX is leading the metal, and is nearing a confrontation with a 19-month resistance plateau at 38.00, which if hurdled and sustained, should trigger upside continuation that projects to 35.00-36.00 next.

  • Brent is Showing Signs of Turning Higher Again - Brent Crude Oil (BNO) has climbed off of its intraday-- and 8 session corrective-- low at $112.90 to $113.69 so far this morning.

    It is starting to look like Brent has ended its correction from $115.71 to $112.90, which if accurate, also suggests that a new upleg likely is in progress that should propel Brent to a new high above $115.71 towards $117.00 next.

  • WFM is Ready for Continuation of its May-June Recovery Period - My intermediate-term pattern work argues that Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM) completed a major corrective period form its Oct 2013 high at 65.59 to its May 2014 low at 37.05.

    My near-term pattern work argues that the first upmove of an emergent significant recovery period ended at June 13 high of 42.90, and Tuesday low at 38.72 ended the minor correction of the near-term advance.

    If my work proves accurate, then WFM is the initial phase of a secondary recovery advance that projects to 46.00-47.50 next.

  • X Extends Rally In Response to Improved China Eco Data - United States Steel Corp. (X) has gapped up in pre-opening trading to a new recovery high at 25.68, on its way to 26.40/50, and then to my optimal target zone of 26.80-27.10.

    A sustained climb above 27.00 also will take out a 6-month down trendline in X, which only will happen if the economic back story -- improved US and China growth prospects -- continues to drive capital flows into the basic materials sector.

    At this juncture, only a decline that breaks last Friday’s low at 24.85 will compromise the timing of upside continuation.

  • Sandridge Energy Approaches Important 18-Month Resistance - SandRidge Energy, Inc. (SD) continues to climb sharply off of its June 11 pullback low at 6.65 to today’s high at 7.43, which is nearing key channel resistance between 7.52 and 7.67.

    I am raising my stop to 7.23 from 7.10.

  • A Potentially Significant GDX Base Pattern Continues to Evolve - The BIG picture of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is getting increasingly constructive.

    Let's notice that:

    1) the current upleg off of the May 28 low at 21.93 into today's high at 25.76 is approaching a confrontation with its 9-month downtrend, now in the vicinity of 26.60,

    2) this week’s portion of the current upleg from 23.92 to 25.82 represents a thrust off of and above my 13-, 26-, and 52-week weighted MA’s,

    3) all of the action since the March 14 high at 28.03 has the look of a maturing right shoulder of a year-long base pattern, and

    4) my weekly momentum gauge is pointed straight up, and remains quite a distance from an overbought reading, suggesting that the current upleg could have considerably more upside prior to registering upside exhaustion.

  • Brent Crude Oil Continues to Climb - Although the e-SPU (SPY) remains confined within a sideways range and less responsive to the lift in Brent Oil (BNO) than I was expecting, I am thinking that the positive influence of an uber-easy Yellen Fed ahead of tomorrow's policy statement and press conference are trumping an otherwise significant up-spike in Oil.

    Brent is following a very bullish near-term price path that should propel it towards a minimum target of $115 in the upcoming hours.

    A sustained climb past $115 will get the attention of the equity markets-- FOMC Meeting or not.

  • Is HPQ Coiling Ahead Another Upleg? - Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on HPQ on his MPTrader site, noting: Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) has spent the entire past week consolidating its sharp upside reversal gains from the post-EPS low at 31.04 on May 22 to the 34.09 high on May 23, which was one week ago.

    Since the high HPQ has carved out a bullish coil pattern between 32.00 and 32.80, which should resolve to the upside in the upcoming hours.

    My nearest-term upside target is 34.80-35.00, while my optimal next upside target is 36.10/30.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on TLT on his MPTrader site, noting: SPY (Equities) and the TLT (Treasury Bonds) Relationship Gets More Fascinating and More Complicated By the Day - Let's notice on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) chart (below), that last Friday the price structure thrust above a near 2-year resistance line in the vicinity of 113.00/05, and continues to trade above it this morning.

    Today's strength represents a new 11-month high, as the TLT continues to claw its way higher off of a year-long base-like accumulation pattern.

    That said, however, let's also notice that Friday's high at 114.41 was not confirmed by my daily RSI momentum gauge, which is a warning signal that perhaps the upleg off of the Dec 31, 2013, low at 101.17 is running on fumes.

    Purely from a technical perspective, inability of the TLT to accelerate to the upside in the next 1-3 sessions will be considered a failure to follow-through after hurdling a significant resistance line and should result in a violent bout of long liquidation.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on EWG on his MPTrader site, noting: Is EWG About to Start a New Upleg? It’s time to take a long position in iShares MSCI Germany (EWG) to take advantage of the weaker EURO, the benefit thereof to German exporters.

    In addition, Germany is a high-tech country fund analogous to the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on GLD on his MPTrader site, noting: Lots of Noise in GOLD and GLD Chart Pattern - Earlier in the week, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) climbed above near-term Apr-May resistance at 125.60.

    It then followed-through to a high print of 126.60 on the way to a measured potential upside target of 129.00, but reversed in its tracks, leaving a near-term false breakout instead.

    The weakness from 126.60 to today's low print (so far) at 124.00 likely represents a traverse of the basing area above the 123.20-122.40 support zone.

    As long as the above-mentioned support zone contains any further weakness, all recent and current weakness is noise within a larger and eventually bullish-base formation.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on TWTR on his MPTrader site, noting: Has Twitter Bottomed? Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) has recovered nearly 11% off of yesterday morning’s post EPS spike low.

    That said, however, it has rallied right into the area of its prior lows at 39.40/60, which is the initial heavy resistance zone that could stall or reverse recovery-price action.

    If TWTR does chew through and sustain above 39.40/60, then the next higher resistance plateau is 40.70, which represents the 50% recovery level of the entire plunge after earnings were announced.

    My final resistance level is 42.00.

    The ability of TWTR to claw its way above 40.70, and continue higher above 42.00, will argue strongly that TWTR has put in a significant medium-term and corrective low.

    Otherwise a downside pivot reversal from 40.70-42.00 will argue for another test of the low.

  • Mike has posted Mid-Day Minute on MPTrader site: AAPL Has Tailwinds From Last Wed's Earnings Report - At today's high, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has recovered 66% of its entire bear phase from its 705.07 high Oct 21, 2012 to its 385.10 April 19, 2013.

    The bullish channel carved out during the past year points to an upside target zone of 620-640 at some point in the not-too-distant future.

    While my medium-term target zone remains 5% to 9% higher, my near-term work indicates that the current upleg off of the April 15, 2014, low at 511.33 is at or very nearly completed ahead of a rest/digestion period that could/should return AAPL to the 575-555 support area.

    Of course, the vertical advance during the second half of April (+16%) could be associated with the anticipation of new product launches or some perceived "game-changing" product announcement, which likely will keep AAPL well-bid on any bouts of weakness.

37.99+0.46(+1.23%)Jul 25 4:01 PMEDT

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