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United States Natural Gas Message Board

mpaulenoff 21 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 16, 2014 2:27 PM Member since: Mar 11, 2013
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  • Bank of America Corporation (BAC) has been struggling since April 11, when JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) earnings (disappointment) triggered a mini-exodus from the large US money center banks.

    Today, in the aftermath of its own earnings release, BAC is down over 2%, while the price structure continues to circle the 16.00 area, which we notice also is the vicinity of its near 2-year support line off of the July 2012 low at 6.90.

    Inability of BAC to claw its way above 16.30/40 resistance will increase the likelihood that the Mar-Apr correction off of 18.03 still has some unfinished business on the downside towards a test of its rising 200-day EMA, now at 15.35.

  • Mike has posted Mid-Day Minute on MPTrader site: Bank of America Corporation (BAC) has been struggling since April 11, when JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) earnings (disappointment) triggered a mini-exodus from the large US money center banks.

    Today, in the aftermath of its own earnings release, BAC is down over 2%, while the price structure continues to circle the 16.00 area, which we notice also is the vicinity of its near 2-year support line off of the July 2012 low at 6.90.

    Inability of BAC to claw its way above 16.30/40 resistance will increase the likelihood that the Mar-Apr correction off of 18.03 still has some unfinished business on the downside towards a test of its rising 200-day EMA, now at 15.35.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on TLT on his MPTrader site, noting: The Flight to Safety into Treasuries Intensifies - Let's continue to keep an eye on this comparison chart of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT).

    In particular, the TLT, shown in the lower chart below, once again is poised to accelerate to the upside off of its 200-day EMA, and in so doing, also will again be positioned to explode to the upside from its year-long rounded-base formation.

    A climb above the Mar 31 high at 111.07 will point the TLT to a test of its major resistance line from July 2012, now at 115.00/03.

    Meanwhile, the reason why the TLT's bid reflects a flight to the safety of US Treasuries precipitated by any and every bout of weakness in the equity indices, SPY in this case.

    The mirror images of these two patterns suggest that the SPY is topping and the TLT is bottoming.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on SPY on his MPTrader site, noting: From a P&F perspective, the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) remains in the grip of a strong up-column of blue X's that started yesterday in the 186.25.

    It has now climbed to 188.00, which we notice as hurdled the near-term resistance line, but has not (yet?) taken out the prior high-print of 188.00.

    The SPY must print 188.25 to "break out" to the upside based on my near-term P&F chart.

    That said, a print of 187.25 will start a new down-column of red O's, which will alert us that the current 1-way upmove in the SPY has become a 2-way trade.

    Barring a 187.25 print, a climb to a 188.25 print should trigger upside continuation that tests 188.50/75, on the way to new highs, projected into the 192.00/50 target zone.

  • Breakout or Counter-Trend Rally in the EEM? The time of truth for the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), which by all accounts has broken out of its Jan-Mar base formation, and could be heading for 43.00.

    Could be?

    Yes, but first this “breakout” must be confirmed with a close above 41.10/30.

    Otherwise, inability of the EEM to close above 41.10/30 will leave open an alternate recovery-rally pattern (upside swing move) that will complete in the vicinity of 41.10/30.

    Should the EEM fail “up there” or lower, and then reverse back beneath 40.20, we will have reason to doubt the integrity of the upside breakout and the bottom pattern.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on SPY on his MPTrader site, noting: The SPY Continues to Defy Gravity

    Late yesterday, we discussed the pickup in volatility after Ms. Yellen’s press conference, but no meaningful directional change in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) chart picture.

    We concluded that the SPY either has to hurdle 187.80/.90, or break below 184.30 to trigger meaningful bullish or bearish price traction.

    So far today, the bulls certainly look like they are the one’s that will trigger the directional catalyst, if the index climbs a bit further.

    A sustained climb above 187.90 should trigger continuation towards a test of the Mar 7 high at 189.26.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on HPQ on his MPTrader site, noting: HPQ Remains in Thrust Position...
    Helped by the Barclays upgrade to OW from EW, and a raise in its target price to 38 from 33, Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) again appears poised for upside acceleration from atop its massive 3-year accumulation pattern.

    A climb above its Feb 21 high at 30.71 should trigger a run at 32.50 quickly.

    Only a decline that breaks the prior pullback low at 28.75 will compromise the timing of the anticipate next upleg.

  • Another Look at The US Dollar-Gold Relationship - I keep coming back to this comparison chart of the DXY and Randgold Resources Limited (GOLD) for two main reasons:

    1) the Dollar Index continues to act weak despite geopolitical tensions that ordinarily would send global investment capital into, not away from, the US Dollar; and

    2) because GOLD continues to grind higher towards the completion of a potentially powerful multi-month double-bottom pattern at $1425, which if hurdled, will trigger upside potential to $1560/80, and possibly to $1650.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on SPY on his MPTrader site, noting: SPY Point & Figure Chart Set-Up Remains Constructive - Despite some sharp intraday moves in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) after the quelling of the Ukrainian "crisis," my Point & Figure work continues to argue that the current upleg off of 183.75 is intact and still viable.

    Also, it is carving-out a sideways, bullish digestion period ahead of fulfilling unfinished business on the upside into the 191.00 to 192.00 target zone.

    That said, however, a print of 186.75 will trigger our first signal that the upmove is weakening.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on AAPL on his MPTrader site, noting: AAPL Near-Term Point & Figure Chart Eyes 550 - Apple Inc. (AAPL) looks like it is on the verge of upside acceleration into a second leg of the advance off of the 516 print low, towards my next target zone of 548-550.

  • SPY Engineers Another Whipsaw Upside Reversal - Increasingly, this morning’s pre-open weakness into a reaction low at 183.83 looks like a bear trap, followed by an upside reversal as Janet Yellen’s testimony appears to have systematically ”encouraged” the shorts to cover their short positions from yesterday afternoon.

    Let’s notice, however, that the upmove from the intraday low at 183.83 to the high at 185.45, so far, has not (yet) hurdled key near-term resistance at 185.60/.65.

    If and when that level is taken out, the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) should take off towards new highs above 185.15, possibly on the way to the 191.00-192.99 target zone projected by my P&F Chart work. Only a sudden downside reversal and break of 184.834 will “lock-in” a post-Feb 24 near-term top pattern.

  • SPY P&F Chart Breaks Quintuple Top - This is what we discussed Friday afternoon: Nothing has changed except for the fact that the SPY has printed at 185, which triggers a P&F Buy Signal... MJP 2/24/14

    From a P&F chart perspective, let's notice that the SPY is bumping up against a quintuple top at 184.75.

    A SPY print of 185.00 will break the 5 X Top at 184.75, presumably triggering an upside breakout that has the potential to propel the SPY to 191.00 - 192.00.

    To me, this will represent an upside blow-off pattern atop an already astounding advance from 173.75 to 184.75.

    It is with this analysis in mind that I prepare to enter a new long position in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), or the ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO), upon a SPY print of 185.00.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on ABX on his MPTrader site, noting: Is Barrick Gold Corporation on the Verge of a Breakout? Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) exhibits a giant, mature 1-year base pattern that is on the verge of upside breakout at 21.00-22.00, which will trigger projections to 26.20/90, and then to 29.60-30.00 thereafter.

    My sense is that I should re-enter the long side to be there in any case.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on HPQ on his MPTrader site, noting: Ahead of Earnings, Hewlett-Packard Threatens to Break Out to the Upside - Today Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) has rocketed from 29.10 to 30.12 ahead of its earnings report due out after today’s close.

    I don't know if the report was leaked or not, but I do know that for HPQ to climb 3.5% from low to high right before earnings, with the price structure perched atop a 2-1/2 year accumulation-base formation suggests strongly that anticipation is building for possibly much better-than-expected quarterly results.

    A sustained climb above the prior high at 30.13 from Jan 22 should trigger upside continuation and acceleration towards my optimal upside targets of 37.50 and 45.00.

    Only a break that sustains below 27.70/30 support will wreck the very constructive technical set up in HPQ.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on SGG on his MPTrader site, noting: Weekly Sugar Looks like it Put in Significant Low - My intermediate-term pattern and momentum work indicate that iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Idx ETN (SGG) put in a significant low at 49.25 on Jan 19, and already has embarked on what should become a multi-month recovery rally period that propels prices to challenge the Aug 2011 down trendline line, now at 60.70 on the way to a 66.00-70,00 target zone.

    From a near-term perspective, I can make the case that SGG is heading for 6.50-57.50 prior to a needing a correction.

    However, should weakness intervene sooner, key “buy zone” support resides a 53,70/20.

    At the risk of missing additional immediate gains at 56.50-57.50, I will wait a touch longer before entering SGG into strength, rather than awaiting a pullback beneath 55.00 to start a new long position.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on AAPL on his MPTrader site, noting: I will have to use the Apple Inc. (AAPL) chart I’ve posted today in my next book, as a textbook example of a powerful, stair-step uptrend in a Point and Figure format.

    Let's notice that the current upleg from 544 to 551 is a vertical up-column of Blue X's, which is still the primary influence within a one-way advance.

    That said, however, a print of 548 will trigger a down-column of Red O's, which will tell us that AAPL's extreme near-term trend has morphed into a two-way trade.

    Only a print of 543 will damage the uptrend. Barring such a print at 543, let's see if AAPL can muscle its way above 544 to a 545 print, which will be consider another P & F breakout that will project to 560-561, on the way to 570.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on ABX on his MPTrader site, noting: Will Barrick Gold Corporation Break Out? Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) is on the verge of breaking out of a mini, 3-week accumulation pattern, and has been since late Jan, which itself is sitting atop a much larger accumulation pattern that originated in early Nov 2013.

    A sustained breakout above 19.95 will trigger the upside potential off of the smaller pattern to an optimal target of 20.85, and then to 21.7090 to satisfy the upside potential of the larger pattern.

    At this juncture, only a decline that breaks 18.80 will put the timing of the anticipated upside acceleration into a question.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on Symbol on his MPTrader site, noting: The SPY/GDX Ratio Continues to Favor Gold Miner Outperformance - From Sept 2011 to Dec, 2013, the SPY outperformed the Gold Miners significantly.

    However, since Dec, 2013, let's notice that their positions have flipped 180 degrees: The Miners have outperformed the overall benchmark index ETF SPDR S&P 500 (SPY).

    Let's notice also that my momentum gauge of the SPY/GDX ratio peaked in July 2013.

    That means that for 5 months the SPY outperformed the GDX within a developing and very significant non-confirmation of SPY strength relative to the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

    That momentum divergence is not one of the factors that is driving the relationship in the opposite direction.

    Judging from the current juxtaposition of momentum and the SPY/GDX ratio, my work is telling me to expect the SPY/GDX to continue lower towards a 60.00-55.00 target zone.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on Symbol on his MPTrader site, noting: The SPY/GDX Ratio Continues to Favor Gold Miner Outperformance - From Sept 2011 to Dec, 2013, the SPY outperformed the Gold Miners significantly.

    However, since Dec, 2013, let's notice that their positions have flipped 180 degrees: The Miners have outperformed the overall benchmark index ETF SPDR S&P 500 (SPY).

    Let's notice also that my momentum gauge of the SPY/GDX ratio peaked in July 2013.

    That means that for 5 months the SPY outperformed the GDX within a developing and very significant non-confirmation of SPY strength relative to the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

    That momentum divergence is not one of the factors that is driving the relationship in the opposite direction.

    Judging from the current juxtaposition of momentum and the SPY/GDX ratio, my work is telling me to expect the SPY/GDX to continue lower towards a 60.00-55.00 target zone.

  • AAPL P&F Chart Shows the Path Higher - After pulling back a couple of points in pre-market amidst Icahn's letter, which indicates it’s ok for Apple Inc. (AAPL) to cut back or eliminate buyback plan, AAPL rocketed from 517 to 528.

    We see this as nearing my secondary, upside target zone off of the base-like pattern carved out on the P&F chart.

    The P&F set-up still points to 534-536, with AAPL testing its dominant resistance line.

    At this juncture, a print of 525 will trigger a column of red O's, which will signal that AAPL has entered a new near-term digestion period, ahead of upside continuation, unless AAPL prints 519 trigger a near-term P&F sell signal.

UNG
26.30+1.07(+4.24%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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