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SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF Message Board

mpaulenoff 21 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 11, 2014 1:53 PM Member since: Mar 11, 2013
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  • Spot Gold Shows a Bit of Resiliency - Below is what we discussed late yesterday. My analysis and outlook remain unchanged. MJP 11/11/14

    I must admit, I was just a bit surprised that spot GOLD relinquished two-thirds of last week's recovery rally in a matter of a few hours.

    The question now is whether or not a relief rally already is over, which would mean that today's weakness represents the start of a new bear leg?

    Although I do think GOLD has another downleg ahead that will press it into the $1080/50 target zone, my work argues that the recovery rally from last Thursday’s low at $1131.85 to Friday’s high at $1179.17 is incomplete, and "needs" another bout of strength into the $1180-$1200 target zone prior to the resumption of dominant downtrend weakness.

    Of course, if spot GOLD is unable to lift from the $1150 area, and instead plunges to new lows straight away, the action will speak for itself, and we should expect $1080/50 soon thereafter.

    For now, however, I am looking for stability above $1145 to be followed by a run at Friday's high. MJP 11/10/14

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on USO on his MPTrader site, noting: Oil vs. Natural Gas Divergence Expands - Nearby Crude Oil has pressed beneath $76.00 for the first time since Oct, 2011, and is threatening to fully test the Oct 4, 2011, low at $74.95.

    That said, however, let's notice that today's new mutli-year low has not been confirmed by my daily RSI momentum gauge (at least not yet), which could be the first indication that the decline from the June high at $107.73 is at, or is nearing, exhaustion ahead of a meaningful, tradable recovery rally.

    As for Natural Gas, it is up again this morning, challenging its modestly down-sloping 200-day EMA, now at 4.095, which might not be hurdled on the initial attempt, but, nonetheless, is in jeopardy according to my medium-term pattern and momentum analysis.

  • Mike has posted a Mid-Day Minute on AAPL on his MPTrader site, noting: AAPL Grinds Higher Towards A Measured Target Zone - In technical analysis, when you have a price structure that is heading for not one, but two, overlapping targets, then the target zone acts more like a magnet than otherwise.

    Such is the case for Apple Inc. (AAPL) as it continues to climb off of its 7-week upside breakout from the Sept-Oct trading range, which has a maximum upside target off 112.00 to 114.20 calculated from the measured move off of the trading range and the upper channel boundary of the post-Oct 15 advance.

    In the absence of a new, bullish catalyst, I will be expecting AAPL to stall and reverse from the above mentioned target zone.

    Otherwise, a decline that breaks 107.40 also will trigger corrective sill signals.

  • FB Heading into Earnings: How Much More Immediate Upside? Facebook, Inc. (FB), coming on the heels of a 15% upmove since Oct 15, tonight's price reaction to earnings, appears to be a tricky situation at best, and a dangerous situation otherwise.
    Let's notice that FB climbed to a new all-time high at 81.16 today, which propelled the stock marginally above its Mar-Oct (dotted on chart) resistance line.
    Thus far, FB has not accelerated to the upside after taking out the line, suggesting that investors are awaiting another bullish catalyst to buy the stock, which may or may not come in the form of a blow-out earnings report later today.
    The juxtaposition of the price structure atop a mutli-month "Rising Wedge" formation in the aftermath of a 15% near-vertical upmove amidst unconfirmed momentum (RSI) seems to me to be a prescription for a "sell-the-news" reaction to EPS.

    While I would not be surprised to see FB knee-jerk to still higher-highs into the 83-84 target zone, its current technical set-up is warning me that any such upmove is unlikely to be sustainable, and instead, will be used by investors to sell the strength ahead of a correction that should revisit the 73.00-70.00 support area relatively quickly.

  • Harry has posted Charts of the Day video on MXWL at TheTechTrader site noting: Maxwell Technologies, Inc. (MXWL), which we put out a swing trade and day trade on Thursday, and later on, after earnings came out, this stock popped. It exploded up toward the 11 1/2 range, and then consolidated. Hearing that there are aggressive, institutional buyers that may be interested in this stock, it could see 12 1/2-13. That’s the swing trade and I’m sticking to it.

  • Harry has posted Charts of the Day video on CLDX at TheTechTrader site noting: Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (CLDX), one of the biotech’s that acted well on Thursday, jumped 90 cents, or 6.2%, on 1.8 million shares. That’s not exceptional volume, but it’s right up against resistance. Watch this one as it could run to 16 1/2-18, and, perhaps, a 21-22 dollar target intermediate-term, if the entire base is taken out with a thrust in volume.

  • Harry has posted Charts of the Day video on AAPL at TheTechTrader site noting: Apple Inc. (AAPL) has been up for about five days now, and gapping almost every day up. Basically, it has broken out of an entire consolidation range to new all-time highs, up 105.05, the highest in its history. My projection, now, is that it could, if it goes to the top of the channel, make it up towards the 108-9 zone. Apple had a clean breakout, and the volume was pretty decent at 71 million shares. So, keep an eye on this one,

  • E-Mini S&P-- The Bulls Remain in Directional Control For Another Day - by Mike Paulenoff,
    In the early morning hours, just as the e-SPZ was bending over towards a retest of Wednesday's afternoon low at 1220.25, better than expected EZ and German PMI data hit the tape, which reversed the index to the upside in a frantic short-covering rally, which was enhanced later in the morning by Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) earnings.

    And so, nearly 22 points higher than the overnight low, we find the e-SPZ heading into the U.S. opening bell.

    Let's notice that the index has established three highs in and around 1941.50-1943.75 in the past 24 hours of trading, which if hurdled and sustained, will argue for upside continuation towards the next target of 1950/56, which my work argues should conclude the entire upleg off of last Thursday low at 1813.

    In the absence of a sustained pop above the recent highs, the e-SPZ will have to press below 1928.50 to regain some downside traction, and to morph the developing Wed-Thurs pattern into a near-term top.

  • Is IBM Plight a Micro or a Macro Problem? In the aftermath of its surprise earnings release before today's open, instead of after tonight's close, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is down about 8%, which reflects a huge miss on EPS, on less than expected revenues, and weak forward guidance (the Trifecta!).

    Purely from a technical perspective, let's notice that this morning's weakness will be triggered by a significant down-gap open, which doubles also as a breakaway gap down from a 3-year topping formation that projects an optimal target in the vicinity 145, and a maximum target of 130.

    Whether or not IBM's woes are a one-off situation indigenous only to the company, or if its problems are a window into the future of the equity market, is a question that will be answered in the days and weeks directly ahead.

  • Standout Energy Sector Performer, Tests Key Support - LITMUS TEST for Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)?

    Let's notice that since Sept 18, when LNG climbed to its all-time high at 85.00 (off of its Oct 4, 2011 low at 3.17!), the stock has dropped precipitously into this morning's low of 64.56-- or 24%.

    Let's also notice that today's low was less than 1.5% from a full-fledged test of the rising 200-day EMA, now in the vicinity of 64.65.

    Thus far, the 200-Day EMA has worked its magic, triggering a U-Turn to the upside from 64.56 to 71.12 (+10% off of today's low).

    Has LNG finished a major correction?

    Perhaps. Granted, LNG is a member of the beleaguered energy sector-- a Natural Gas producer, liquefier, and exporter, which has been under intense pressure from falling oil and derivative prices since June, and certainly is overdue for a period of strength.

    However, my intermediate-term pattern work argues strongly that any forthcoming period of strength should be considered a relief rally within a larger, still-unfolding and incomplete corrective process that should resume after this bounce runs its course.

    Somewhere in the #$%$ resistance zone, I will be expecting LNG to reverse to the downside for a retest of the 200-Day EMA, in route to a test of its major support line, now at 60.00.

  • Has AEO (American Eagle Outfitters) Started a New Upleg? With Goldman Sachs upgrade to Buy (from Neutral), and this morning's pre-open pop to 14.75/85, the Sept rest/digestion period appears to be over, which also means that a new upleg is in progress that projects to 17.00-18.00.

    Only a sharp downside reversal that declines beneath the recent pullback low at 13.41 (Sept 15).

  • TGT on the Verge of Breakout and Upside Acceleration? Let’s notice that the Target Corp. (TGT) has climbed above all of its 2014 rally peaks, including the Feb 28 high at 62.88, which clears the way for upside continuation that projects next to 64.00-65.00 on the way to 69.00-70.00 from a medium-term pattern perspective.

    Nonetheless, I am raising my protective stops to 61.47 just in case the Fed throws investors a curve ball in the FOMC Statement tomorrow afternoon.

  • TGT Attempts to Push Out of its Multi-Month Base Pattern - The Target Corp. (TGT) CEO unveiled some of his turnaround strategy, which is buoying the stock a bit this morning.

    From a technical perspective, TGT is pushing up against important 6-week resistance between 61.30 and 61.65, which, if hurdled, should trigger upside continuation to test more substantial 2014 resistance at 62.60/90.

    This will also complete a 9-month base formation for TGT.

  • Mid-Term and Benchmark Treasury YIELDS on the Verge of an Upside Breakout? Look! Maybe, just maybe, 5-year YIELD is on the verge of a significant upside breakout?

    Meanwhile, 10-year YIELD looks like it is going to challenge major resistance at its 9-month resistance line and at its down-sloping 200-day EMA, both in the vicinity of 2.56%.

    We need to keep an eye on these charts now.

    Something is cooking under longer-term YIELD that could imply the U.S. economy is growing faster than expected (despite last Friday’s dismal Jobs Report for Aug), which also could impact the equity markets going forward.

  • Is GDX Weakness The Start of a Bear Move, or a Healthy Correction Within a Bull Phase? After breaking key-August support at 25.59/61, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has pressed into and below the unfilled gap area left behind on June 19 at 25.14–24.78.

    Right now my pattern work indicates two things: 1) that a new upleg within the 14-month base-pattern formation started at the May 29 low at 21.92, the first phase of which ended at the July 10 high of 27.63, and 2) all of the action since July 10 represents a correction of the prior up-phase that when complete, should resolve in the emergence of a new up-phase that projects to 30.00-31.00 next.

    My optimal corrective-target zone for entering new long positions is 24.30-23.70.

  • AAPL's Interesting Technical Set-Up into Next Week's Media Event - My long-standing target zone for the upleg off of the April 2014 low at 73.04 was 101-103, which has been satisfied and exceed (today) with a new high at 103.74.

    From the perspective of my channel work, however, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has thrust 3%-4% above the resistance line of entire bull channel created during the past 14 months, which usually constitutes a "channel overshoot warning signal."

    Under such circumstances, a channel overshoot in excess of 3% much more often than not increases the likelihood of a reversal that yanks the price structure back below the upper-channel boundary line (now at 100).

    With an Apple Media Event scheduled for Sept 9 (new larger iPhones and an iWatch??), my channel analysis might be warning about a pre or post Sept 9 sell-the-news event.

    Should such a correction develop, the optimal pull-back support (buy) zone is 96.00-93.00.

  • Harry has posted Charts of the Day video on SNSS at TheTechTrader site noting: Sunesis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SNSS) popped on Wednesday, up 74 cents, or 10%, on 5.2 million shares. That’s the biggest volume since the beginning of the year. When it comes to a breakout day, it moved across resistance going back a long time. At this point, look for SNSS to run to 12 short-term, and then 15 intermediate-term. This could be a good one, so keep your eye on it. We may put out a swing trade, but it won’t be until Thursday morning.

  • Harry has posted Charts of the Day video on KERX at TheTechTrader site noting: Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (KERX) is breaking out in tiers. The top of the intermediate resistance in the 18 range was taken out on Wednesday. In the position that it’s in right now it looks like it headed toward the 20 range short-term, and then 22-22 1/2 intermediate-term.

  • Harry has posted Charts of the Day Vvideo on BDSI at TheTvechTrader site noting: BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. (BDSI), one of our swing trades, is acting well. It popped up and through taking out lateral resistance, and a double-top from back in July. The short-term target is 19, and 21 intermediate-term.

  • Harry has posted Charts of the Day video on ANET at TheTechTrader site noting: Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) did very well on Wednesday. It opened just under 76.00, ran up to 83.47, and closed at 83.15, up 6.99, or 9%, on 724,200 shares traded. That’s a lot of volume for that stock, and the best volume in two and a half weeks. If it breaks out across the next line of resistance, this stock could head up towards 92-93 zone short term.

35.59+0.01(+0.03%)Nov 26 4:00 PMEST

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