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Jarden Corp. Message Board

mpharbold1 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 24, 2014 8:14 PM Member since: Oct 21, 2004
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  • Reply to

    CAT Results

    by richoncat Jul 24, 2014 7:39 AM
    mpharbold1 mpharbold1 Jul 24, 2014 7:46 AM Flag

    Stock buyback seems unwise to me at these levels. They will either burn up a lot of their 4 billion in cash or they will increase their debt to over 40 billion. Considering how expensive CAT currently is, I think they're making a bad decision.

  • Reply to

    2nd Qtr Earnings

    by mpharbold1 Aug 4, 2014 5:13 PM
    mpharbold1 mpharbold1 Aug 5, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    I'd be deeply concerned about the declining revenue on both a quarter by quarter basis and a year by year basis. I speculate FRP is losing customers to competition. I don't care what the company claims. Also, in the conference call for 1st qtr earnings, the company indicated that revenue would be higher for the 2nd and 3rd quarters. As it turned out, it was not even close. It was about 5 million less in the 2nd quarter. Based on the weak balance sheet loaded with debt, declining revenue on the income statement, and total cash being much lower at 6/30 than it was at 12/31, I think FRP is worth less than $5 and I expect it to get there.

  • mpharbold1 mpharbold1 Aug 18, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    It's being manipulated higher for the time being. Analysts are getting all the mileage they possibly can with the company soon splitting into 2 separate companies. There is a large short position on BKS and the pundits are playing it, squeezing the shorts. Fundamentally, BKS looks disastrous to me. Last quarter they were expected to lose .59 and they reported losing .72. The stock has moved up about 15% since then. I expect it's only a matter of time and BKS comes crashing down. There is a large short position for good reasons.

  • mpharbold1 mpharbold1 Aug 20, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    If you want to buy a brick and mortar retailer with declining revenues and with large losses, I'm not going to stop you. You ever consider the possibility that AMZN is pretty much killing BKS (and many other brick and mortar retailers). While you're at it, why don't you buy JCP. And better yet, go out and buy RSH. I'm sure they look incredibly cheap to you also.

  • Reply to

    cash flow, dividend increase, Alibaba

    by dbtunr Sep 20, 2014 10:41 AM
    mpharbold1 mpharbold1 Sep 24, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    I agree I have never seen an AU55 that is as nice as MS62. I have however seen AU55 that is as nice as MS60. You say that CLCT is making boatloads of money. I hardly consider 7.359 million net income applicable to common shares for the past 12 months "boatloads of money" when the company has a market cap of 189.14 million. I quite simply am skeptical of this company selling for such a high market cap.

  • mpharbold1 by mpharbold1 Sep 24, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    Stock crawls higher on low volume. Not a compelling move and more likely to reverse than if volume was high. Look at historical data and this stock usually gets clobbered when volume exceeds 100,000.

  • Reply to

    cash flow, dividend increase, Alibaba

    by dbtunr Sep 20, 2014 10:41 AM
    mpharbold1 mpharbold1 Sep 23, 2014 5:50 PM Flag

    I collect both coins and sports cards. I am very familiar with both PCGS and PSA. As time goes by, I think more and more that these grading agencies are a gimmick. Take the $50 Kennedy Commemorative for instance. There is no difference between PR69DCAM and PR70DCAM. I have even seen a few rare cases where the 69 looks nicer than the 70. It has become more buying a holder than a coin. And then if PCGS wasn't enough, there is now a CAC designation. PSA10 for sports cards is rather similar - the hobby has also become buying a holder more than a card. In the world of coins you have Old Green Holders where automatically people think they can resubmit the coin and get a higher grade. I think collecting coins and cards is becoming a pasttime. If you go to coin shows today, collectors are mostly older white males - the hobby could be in trouble down the road. And sports cards is rather similar. Everyone remembers the sports card craze of the '80s when every pack you bought was worth more than what you paid. Card collecting is dieing. I use to go to packed shows - today there aren't near as many shows and there are far fewer people. I predict people will grow tired of both PCGS and PSA and totally turn away from coin and card collecting. Just one man's opinion.

  • Reply to

    Volume

    by mpharbold1 Sep 24, 2014 3:12 PM
    mpharbold1 mpharbold1 Sep 24, 2014 8:14 PM Flag

    3 month cycles would be logical, but when I look at the 1 year chart and the 2 year chart, I do not see it.

  • Reply to

    In about 3 days, short the hell out of this!

    by hot1tip Jul 22, 2014 12:20 AM
    mpharbold1 mpharbold1 Jul 22, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    I wouldn't short it that soon. If you look at history when it has jumped up, it could be a month from now when it peaks. If you go back to 10/18/13, CMG rose 70.67 in one day. It wasn't a good short until 11/15/13. I think it is way overvalued, but I also think you can find much safer shorts.

  • Reply to

    Leonard Riggio

    by mpharbold1 Jun 30, 2014 4:30 PM
    mpharbold1 mpharbold1 Jul 16, 2014 6:14 PM Flag

    Riggio won't pay more than $13.50/share for BKS.

  • mpharbold1 mpharbold1 Aug 20, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    I do not own AMZN, TSLA, or NFLX. I think they are all overvalued. I think most of the entire market is overvalued including BKS and JCP. If BKS is so cheap, why did Leonard Riggio dump a lot of shares? Why is over 20% of the float short? I'm sure wrb335 is much smarter than all of these shorts.

  • mpharbold1 by mpharbold1 Aug 4, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    Revenue of 225.6 million actual. Expected was 227.41 to 233.82 million. Earnings per share -.86 actual vs -.69 expected. Cash on balance sheet up slightly compared to 3/31/14; however liabilities slightly higher also. Looks like a weak quarter to me, especially for a stock hitting a new 52 week high. Look out down below.

  • mpharbold1 mpharbold1 Aug 20, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    I think Riggio will make an offer for Barnes and Noble Retail. He'll offer single digits for it.....LMFAO!

JAH
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