I don't think they are necessarily shorts, may be potential longs looking to build a position at the lowest possible price. I really don't know if enough people read and react to message board posts (bashing or pumping) to affect the stock price, though. I'm assuming 10 or fewer people are reading posts on the Joez...would love to see a counter.
Over the years, I've noticed that you seem to be a good luck charm for this stock. You start posting, and the stock goes crazy over the following few months.
Great to see you back and good luck!
I looked back and they actually said $42-$48M for Q4 sales combined. I did forget that we'll only have 2 months of Hudson sales in the quarter. Still, already at $45M with current projections, and I think we'll be at the top of that range by presentations in January. Agree with you assessment of Hudson...your projection is more in line with their 10% increase in sales over their first 9 months.
Slide 7, projected Joe's sales for 2013 is $122M, subtract the first 3 quarters and you have $32.3M estimate for Q4. That's actually not a bad projection for this early. Last Dec presentation, they only projected $30.3M in sales for Q4 and wound up with $33.7M when they reported in Feb. They should also do a presentation or two in January. Before these, I wouldn't be surprised if they issued a press release with estimated sales for Q4, they did that last year. Hopefully, it will continue to creep up as they confirm sales...that's what happened last year.
By the way, toss in the $19M they project for Hudson, and it's up to $51.3M in sales for Q4 already projected. Didn't they project $48M at the October CC? Once again, seems as if they project really low to start and slowly go higher...gives me hope for a very nice Q4.
Yeah, surprising drop. I look at:
Pacific Sun- best year in the last 5 is a .77 a share loss. Just reported sales down 4% for quarter, .05 loss, and project .12-.17 loss for Q4. Stock went up 18%, market cap now $232M
Vince-no hope of making a profit in the foreseeable future with 17% of sales going to pay debt. Losing $3.00 a share a year for the past couple of years. Market cap $1B.
App-Look at previous mentioned two, same story. Market cap $132
Joe's looks really cheap to me with a $78M market cap. Maybe Joe's will have a "bad" quarter until cost savings kick-in for the combined companies, but Joe's idea of a bad quarter is breaking even or losing a penny.
Yeah, early sales info wasn't great, but they are probably sandbagging again. Do you remember last year when they were projecting $30.3M in the December presentations, then came out with a press release right before the January presentations saying sales for Q4 were between $30.9M and $32.3M...then when they announced 3-4 weeks later in February it was $33.7M? Not sure where the additional $3.4M in sales showed up from Dec-Feb, but I was glad to see it.
They hope to save 8-10% off of the $100M in CGS the two companies spent last year. Hudson currently pays $35 to make a jean in US, looking to move some to Mexico for $10 less a jean.
Thanks for the info. I ordered on Thanksgiving, and it arrived this past Friday. However, when I placed my order, and as I checked throughout the weekend, the website was moving slow. Hopefully, a good omen for sales. Maybe they will share some preliminary Thanksgiving sales numbers tomorrow.
Yep. At the last CC, Crossman said that they will significantly decrease the $160M in CGS and SG&A expenses the two companies combine for. If they can cut those costs by even 3%, that would add about $5M to operating income, $3.4M to net income, or .05 EPS. 5% savings would add about .08 to the EPS for the year.
I like the growth rate over the past 3 years, up over 40% one year, then 12% and around 10% this year. I think someone pointed out a while ago it is similar to Joe's, but Hudson hasn't added tops, retail stores or a brand like else to achieve their growth, they just sell denim wholesale and through their website.
I think one of the first areas of growth could be tops for Hudson. Hamish mentioned on one of the CC's that Joe's collection items (non-denim) don't have great margins because of the volume of production. If they start making tops for Hudson out of the same factory, and even using the some of the same materials, I'm sure its a win-win for both brands.
In regards to the $148,000 loss...on page 24 it states that there were $1,950,000 in expenses that Hudson accrued for the sale that were included in the SG&A expenses for the nine months.
Looks that way. Hudson's sales are up about 10% this year during the first 9 months. If that continues, they would wind up with about $82M in sales for the year, and they have $60M so far. That would leave $22M for the final quarter, plus Joe's sales, which were $33M during Q4 last year.
Wow, looking at Vince, I can't believe that stock price, and $1B market cap. Sales are $700M compared to Joe's $120M, but they lost $2.97 a share last year, and have averaged a $3.30 a share loss over the last 3 years. Also a ton of long term debt...17 cents of every dollar off of the TOP LINE is currently going to interest expense...($122M in paying off long term debt last year!)
I look at companies like this and APP...and don't get fooled by APP's stock price, their market cap is 50% higher than Joe's, even though they haven't made any money in 5 years....and I really see why Joez went out and bought top line growth with the Hudson deal.
Now the website is really picked over. Maybe they needed to send inventory to their retail stores that also ran the 40% off sale (sale was only online last year). I'm excited to see the inventory run down...but if we find out later that sales were down...then yes, that's a big mistake. After the success of last year's Thanksgiving weekend sale (sales up 40% over the previous year), I would really hope they had a lot more inventory ready.
Maybe they will shed light on Thanksgiving weekend sales next week. They did include some info on that during the December presentations last year.
Joe's website was running slow most of the weekend, hopefully that was due to a lot of traffic. Decent amount of out-of-stocks throughout the weekend. They actually started restocking some items as the weekend went on. I also noticed that they restocked a lot of the items that were out after the sale ended on Tuesday, so they must not be too desperate if they were holding back product to sell at higher prices.
There was also someone on Hudson's FB page complaining about their inventory. Hate to see lost sales due to out-of-stocks, but probably a good sign that Hudson sold more product than they were expecting to.
I like that it's showing support at $1.14/$1.15. I think it will go up, but not sure when. The investor presentation and Hudson numbers give us 2 potential catalysts over the next week to 10 days. Hopefully, we get some good news out of those.
Well, I would be just as ticked as a shareholder if they stopped doing the presentations. The investors conferences have helped get the stock price rolling in the past. I hope they can give a little more detail on expected cost savings. Not just a "This is just as big, if not bigger than we expected" like Crossman said at the last CC.