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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

mqwlaser 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 24, 2014 12:25 PM Member since: Sep 24, 2003
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  • No need to extrapolate. Pill total was 272,160. Holding nicely at new higher levels.

    Have a great weekend

    Laser

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mqwlaser mqwlaser Oct 7, 2014 11:52 PM Flag

    Belkin,

    I couldn't agree more with you general commentary about those two posters on the Ihub message board. They are truly an insult to all intelligent thinkers. Their bashing and nonsense while one, learning curve, claims to own nothing, and the other touts his 100 share trades really diminishes the generally positive and worthwhile contributions of others on that board. If this board had not been removed for some reason from the Yahoo home page for MSLP, and were more active, I would never even look at the other board.

    For whatever its worth, I represent a very large block of shares; more than anyone posting on either board owns. I couldn't be more bullish on the long term prospects of the company. I couldn't care less about daily fluctuations. This company is executing perfectly and is the lowest long term risk, highest long term reward stock on my radar.

    Buy and hold. Buy and hold. This one will triple over time. Relax and enjoy.

    Good Luck to all Longs

    Laser

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Aside from paying down debt..

    by timberbug12 Oct 6, 2014 12:00 PM
    mqwlaser mqwlaser Oct 6, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    Timber,

    I have spoken to Ian about this in the past ( prior to the ALZ data) and he offered some relevant insight. Assuming approval of our Migraine device (AVP 825), AVNR will be expanding the sales force well beyond its current size.

    The most recent sales force expansion was designed to increase coverage and sales of N in the LTC and retail sectors. While there is some crossover in the retail sector with Migraine (neurologists are called on for both), we currently do not have a force calling on GPs (general practicioners).

    As such, the launch of Migraine will encompass much additional expenditures in sales and marketing. The company was going to have to raise money for this even if ALZ hadn't been so successful. Now, they were able to take advantage of ALZ; raise money much less dilutively at higher prices; and will not have to raise money after the presumed approval of AVP 825.

    This should keep any rally after approval from hitting the usual "fundraising" wall which inevitably follows a new product approval.

    AVNR has set up everything perfectly, but the funds they have will certainly be put to good uses there, before other external matters are addressed.

    Good Luck to all Longs

    Laser

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Total capsules: 264,120 up .6% (second consecutive weekly record sales number)
    Retail: 117,180 down 4.2%
    LTC: 147,000 up 4.9%

    Nice trend in September. Looks good for the fourth calender quarter upcoming.

    Good Luck to all Longs

    Laser

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mqwlaser mqwlaser Sep 23, 2014 11:55 PM Flag

    Hondo,

    This is a reply to your question and to the thread of responses as well.

    The strength in the stock after the announcement should not be that surprising. In effect what was said is the following: B of A/ Merrill Lynch, DeutscheBank, and JP Morgan are all going to be officially covering AVNR, and since they are promoting the SPO (NOT a private placement), they will be initiating with BUY ratings.

    Its that simple. The big boys are playing and they want in. That was the news of the day.

    Re Gordon's comment re: timing, it is an offering with no price and terms set. It has to be shopped, and will be. Hence the offering will not be immediate. AVNR has the right to do nothing if the terms and market interest do not meet its satisfaction. Given the players, this is HIGHLY unlikely.

    The money raised will avnr in play, as it will allow it to credibly grow its business and pipeline. Any suitor will have to pay up big time as AVNR is saying to the market that it is more than prepared to build its business well into the future. That's how the game is played. Pedal to the medal until someone pays you to stop.

    I loved the news and am so happy to see management continue to execute aggressively.

    Good Luck to all Longs

    Laser

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • To All;
    First to Tom: Your source, just like everyone's source for these numbers, is Ian Clements at AVNR. They aren't secret and are provided to many investors. Anyone who asks for them can get them directly from the company by email each week. Thanks for posting them when you do, but I don't want others to think that they must wait for you or have some secret contact to get them.

    Ian sent the numbers out late today.

    They are very good.

    Total Capsules: 261,240 (new record by a nice bit); up 4.6% w/w
    Retail: 115,080; up 6.1% w/w
    LTC: 146,160; up 3.4% w/w

    Have a nice weekend longs!

    Laser

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How about this....

    by congoisking Aug 14, 2014 3:09 PM
    mqwlaser mqwlaser Aug 14, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    Congo,

    I also believe that at some point in the future, if AVNR stays independent, they will need additional capital to fund ALL of the programs that will have running simultaneously(presuming success of the earlier stage programs currently initiated).

    However, your numbers currently are a bit alarmist and don't add up with the recently provided guidance from the 10Q.

    Specifically, the company has used 116M in total operating costs through 9 months, and has forecast a high end through the next Q of 145M. That is 29M op ex for the fourth fiscal Q. Net revenue for the current Q was 28M, and should be higher in the upcoming Q due to continued N sales growth.

    As such, the burn for the next reported Q will be substantially less than the past one. AVNR indicated on their CC that this past Q included increased expenses due to a milestone payment to Optinose, as well as increased clinical expenses.

    I don't mind thinking long term, and in a successful future clinically, AVNR will need money to run all of the trials for DEX related products. But there are many possibilities, including partnerships with large Pharma domestically, that may appear presuming favorable clinical data for DEX.

    The money they have in the bank will suffice for a few more Qs, during which time many milestones will have been passed/achieved, before they have to consider funding options.

    Just keeping it real. The stock price will be determined by the clinical data and 825 approval, not their balance sheet at present.

    Good Luck to all longs

    Laser

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow's Action?

    by roy_alzua Aug 5, 2014 6:01 PM
    mqwlaser mqwlaser Aug 5, 2014 7:35 PM Flag

    No. the motion to dismiss was granted WITHOUT PREJUDICE, which means they can refile. It will be a while however, which delays the process nicely.

  • mqwlaser mqwlaser Aug 5, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    Par appeal was dismissed on procedural grounds. Will be refiled at some point in the future. It is a nice delay of the appeal process, which is in AVNR's favor, but the issue has not been legally ended and there will be an appeal. Just to keep the record clear.

    To me it is a NON ISSUE and not something I factor into my AVNR assessment. Growing sales and demonstrating a path forward for DEX based products is the whole ballgame for avnr.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow's Action?

    by roy_alzua Aug 5, 2014 6:01 PM
    mqwlaser mqwlaser Aug 5, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    The litigation news was corrected. The appeal was dismissed on procedural grounds as there has not been a "final judgement" in the underlying litigation to appeal from. There needs to be a removal of an entry from the Orange Book first. Bottom line is that the appeal has been delayed several months and will likely be refiled when it is ok procedurally to proceed. It just moved the appeal down the road a nice bit.

    It is a NON EVENT. Nothing to trade on one way or the other.

    Laser

  • Reply to

    Par Appeal Dismissed

    by mqwlaser Aug 5, 2014 4:22 PM
    mqwlaser mqwlaser Aug 5, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    Gogh9,
    You are correct. It has been dismissed without prejudice and can/will likely be refiled.
    Thanks for the detail. I was listening to the CC when I read the dismissal. Didn't get all of the meat.

    Best

    Laser

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I follow the CAFC daily disposition sheet in another investment I own, and today was entered a dismissal of the appeal by Par. It is officially over.

    Just thought longs would like to know

    Laser

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AVNR
13.15+0.76(+6.13%)3:03 PMEDT

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