Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board
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Think forward guidance. That will be key.
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Who is buying the assets from Cerberus?
Remington....Marlin.....Bushmaster....and more. All up for sale
If Rgr picks up any one.... The shorts are twice fried and then baked. -
This is one sweet string. Valuation suppressed until it pops. Becoming painfully obvious .
. Too painful to bear once they look at guidance. The December quarter will be strong but the follow on quarters will be blowouts. I only wish I could be outside the swhc and rgr plants to see how many shifts they are running. The funds, esp the hedgies get this info. Everybody got theirs? Must have else today would have been chaotic. Good luck all ye gunnies. -
Great post. Thanks for commenting. Magooo says that while Big Five is an excellent harbinger for gun stocks, its not a pure play on guns. They had single digits but rgr and swhc will be in the high double digits on TOP of the pre- existing y.o.y. growth. You might see a 3-5 buck pop on the and swhc tomorrow.
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Magoo says that 4th quarter revenue will be good, but not raging good because the s did not hit the fan until mid December. This is great because guidance for Q1 will be spanking great. So, there will be awesome forward guidance.
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The shorts are going to try to keep this cool
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Tomorrow's action should be pretty tame. Until it isn't.
Look for some action close to closing. It'll be like last chance before bar time. -
Rgr has room to run. Earnings will be great tomorrow, but to make the value stick, Rgr needs to show up with one or more of these strategies:
1) share buyback
2) special dividend
3) purchase of marlin or Remington from Cerberus
4) outlook at the current run rate which runs further than expected.
You decide. -
'Tis but a dumb thing to short a company under the circumstances:
FACT: SWHC has great earnings,
FACT SWHC has little debt,
FACT: the financial strength of the company is not recognized in the the stock prce,
FACT: Gun control is going nowhere fast.
FACT: SWHC has backorders for the next three years.
FACT: No short will go near this,
FACT: the shorts cannot come up with a compelling rationale that gun control will affect this company going forward.
FACT: Shorts are afraid of the excess cash on the books which can be used for special divvies, buybacks, and acquisitions of additionla businesses. -
no one selling at these prices. Expectations are high for earnings.
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SWHC HAS A LONG WAY TO GO - I say SWHC should be 1.75x or $13.13 per share.
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RGR's forward P/E is 22.12 while SWHC's forward P/E is 9.15
by blueskyys2001_neighbor •Feb 25, 2013 10:36 PMSWHC valuation metrics are all exactly 1/2 of Ruger metrics. Forward and trailing PE, PS, PB, EPS. SWHC has a long way to go to catch up to RGR valuations on a relative basis. I am not saying SWHC is worth $55 a share, I am saying its worth up to 2x its current PPS today. A 50% appreciation in value is not a stretch at all.
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Retailers are selling everything within minutes of arrival. Factories must be going full bore. Sales are going to double this year.
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I am good with that. Swhc will be the stealth stock this week reacting to rgr revenue blowout. Swhc seems to have more room to run, but I do not know why it's not higher now.
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No debt. An acquisition will make it double. Will ruger speak of this at earnings call? Last call they said they were acquisitive and now Remington, marlin, bushmaster are all for sale.
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Agree. I think mgmt will just let it rip. They don't get too many opportunities to be the daily darling, sort of neat to go to the earnings call and tell everyone that orders exceed production capacity for the next 18 months!
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cross topic: swhc valuation is almost exactly 1/2 of ruger's
by mr_magooooooooooo •Feb 24, 2013 1:29 PMI would like to agree on ruger but will the market give that much more credit to ruger for forward earnings? Rgr does have better mgmt and a very diverse product line. Swhc has practically no debt but it does not score as high in mgmt or product line. I will hold both and hope
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Swhc stands a great chance to pick up 50-100% appreciation to catch up with Sturm ruger
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That's not GAAP. I would be po'd as a shareholder and they would be in deep with the sec if they pushed earnings down. Face it, it's a blowout and there is nothing that can be done about it.
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Only so much smoothing they can do. They had a boatload of sales and took in a boatload of cash. They will probably tone down forward guidance though.