only 'cause you asked here's one theory: there are some marginal risks, but the thing that is most up in the air is the timing of getting paid due to waiting on the approvals for antitrust mostly imo. Because getting paid may push into next year that is a problem for those folks/entities who get evaluated (pronounced get bonuses based on performance, get promos, get add'l clients, etc. etc.) on each year's return for them or their fund, etc.
Im just a regular joe (but that is NOT the case for many many others that we wonder why aren't they getting in!)... I don't care if I see my return on dec 31 or jan 2 next year (in fact as general rule better to push tax implication gains to next year) but tax benny is swamped by my main theory. So most in this deal and types to drive it up are eying timing. If some breaking news were to indicate the deal will pay/close prior to year end, oh youll see a mighty fast increase. mighty fast. lastly,I already told you, I mean a diff handle, why using the term 'annualized' makes little sense here.
all in my opinion. I have no special knowledge and am not an expert. Do your own due diligence. make your own decisions.
Stay thirsty my friends.
Nice to see there are arbs and others believe enough to show this thing has real legs- all things considered and in my opinion only. do your own due diligence. I have no special information.
By John Masefield
I must go down to the seas again, to the lonely sea and the sky,
And all I ask is a tall ship and a star to steer her by;
And the wheel’s kick and the wind’s song and the white sail’s shaking,
And a grey mist on the sea’s face, and a grey dawn breaking.
I must go down to the seas again, for the call of the running tide
Is a wild call and a clear call that may not be denied;
And all I ask is a windy day with the white clouds flying,
And the flung spray and the blown spume, and the sea-gulls crying.
I must go down to the seas again, to the vagrant gypsy life,
To the gull’s way and the whale’s way where the wind’s like a whetted knife;
And all I ask is a merry yarn from a laughing fellow-rover,
And quiet sleep and a sweet dream when the long trick’s over.
Uh, who is giving me a thumbs down just for stating a factual reality??? LMAO Uh duh!
since right after deal agreement 'reached' will use june 1 the sox is down 15% while altr is down 5%.
that should give folks here a measure of comfort and basically confirms the hypothesis of last post. all imo only.
longs who stay the course- long and strong!
... but it will be money parked for a while until any 'new news' is allowed out.
all just my opinion only! I have no special knowledge. do your own DD.
You said '"all but guaranteed " ...
filings said, in part,
'The consummation of the merger is conditioned on the receipt of the approval of Altera's stockholders, as well as the satisfaction of other customary closing conditions, including domestic and foreign regulatory approvals and performance in all material respects by each party of its obligations under the Merger Agreement. The Merger is currently expected to close within six to nine months of June 1, 2015. The Merger is not conditioned upon Intel’s receipt of financing.'
You and Mr. market appear to differ on your interpretation of 'all but guaranteed'
I've explained why it appears to simply be moving mostly with the Naz per force due to index fund rebalancing, and other issues, etc.
I have no special info. I am not an expert- all in my opinion only. do your own DDilgnce. having said all that I just think it is a matter of patience.
Ps assuming my hypoth. is for most part correct consider also why there is*any* trading at all.. altr is part of a bunch of indexes like naz, sox,etc. consequently here is some 'forced' buying and selling as it is a component. has the market gone up or down of late? if you do a simple compare to Naz it shows last month they basically follow each other tho diff by less than 1% which divs will paly a role there. SoX is down 2.5% MORE than altr. so that is a nod to the cash deal imo helping to 'pin' altr higher.
all imo only I have no special knowledge just a generally bright guy lol. do your own research and dd!
twin is right of course it is not 100% because that would mean payment has been made ;-) Time is the biggest unknown imo. as this could stretch past end of year which doesn't help if a fund needs to show annual performance that includes the payout for example. Btw what is the typical time value of money for on avg for any takeover deal ?Until you know that how can you understand what 8% here means? (the div paid already represents bit under 1/2%)
Next, if one reads the online Edgar filings one can see what is written about all the possible risks inherent in this deal. This is easily google-able. If you have not done even that then you deserve some amount of yahoo! board shame.. and that's saying something!
But also consider this is basically almost fully held by institutions and has tiny tiny volume now --as everyone has taken their positions already (incl. this long) who plan on trading it and all else are now holding for the payout. consequently there are no buyers to drive it up and only a few sparse sellers (who need capital back, have margin needs, cant wait into next year, etc.) who are selling. In the end it almost seems like what we have here is a virtually no volume wait and see game. all imo only. im no expert and have no special knowledge do your own DD.
well it gave you a pretty good hint: 'The stock's average price for the quarter was $47 per share.'
That's as good a we're going to know I reckon..
Roulette is NOT a 50/50 prop. How do you think the casino makes money silly?? lol Hint: green is zero (and in most of US a second green for double zero hence a 5%+ edge to house). now do you see your mistake? oh brother....
Gabelli purchased 745,000 shares of Altera Corp., a 0.21% portfolio weight. The stock's average price for the quarter was $47 per share.
Mario Joseph Gabelli (born June 19, 1942) is an American stock investor, investment advisor, and financial analyst. He is the founder, chairman, and CEO of Gabelli Asset Management Company Investors (GAMCO Investors) a $30 billion global investment firm (assets under management (AUM)) headquartered in Rye, New York. Forbes magazine's 2006 Forbes 400 rankings listed him as #346 on the list of wealthiest Americans and estimated his net worth at $1 billion as of 2011.
rules bar that imo and it would be complete peanuts in any event why bother lol. also you dont give any effect ot the time value of money etc. which is odd. also you forget to divide volume on yahoo by 2 to get actual number. much of volume is just marketmakerts to eachother themselves. all in my opinion only do your own DD. much of this is well known and found on the 'interwebbs' so I will leave you to your research. glad I could help tho.
No they are not. what you see is tiny tiny float trading hands. Dont you see the volume each day on yahoo!?? It lets u see there is no decent volume of shares to buy. that's cuz at least 93% of the share are obviously going to wait for th e$54/ share. glad I could help you understand this. imo only
from yahoo: % of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 93%
Does that help answer your question?
Altera's board of directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per share, to be paid on September 1, 2015 to shareholders of record on August 10, 2015.
So figure what an ex-div date three days prior I guess. Not bad to get paid while you wait. I think it is fair to assume 0.18 a qtr. till deal closes. all in my opinion only I have no special knowledge and no expert knowledge! do your own due diligence.
Fitch Ratings-Chicago-22 July 2015: Fitch rates Intel Corp.'s(INTC)$5 billion senior notes offering 'A+'. Intel(INTC) will sell a mix of five-year, seven-year and 10-year notes in part to fund the $16.7 billion acquisition of Altera Corp.(ALTR) , which is expected to close by the end of 2015. Fitch currently rates Intel's(INTC) long-term and short-term Issuer Default Ratings 'A+/F1'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. Pro forma for the debt issuance, Fitch rates $18.2 billion of debt. A full list of current ratings follows at the end of this release.
Gotta love it. Another nice data point while we wait...