You can't fault GW for doing exactly what the FDA tells them to do. If I had to speculate, I'd say they will get breakthrough status for Epidolex sooner than later. You can't keep this secret for very long. Too many people involved.
Then start edging higher. This stock is looking for any reason to go higher. Switzerland? What's that - 130 patients? I imagine if we get real news (positive USA trial results), it will jump big.
I'm too nice. Go to the SEC Edgar search page and search for ticker GWPH or GW Pharmaceuticals company name. You will see a list of forms submitted by GW. Click on the documents button for form 424b4 (May 2, 2012) - the prospectus. Then click on the first file (HTM file). There it is at the top.
From the SEC filings. It's the capital structure. This whole ADR thing and trading on 2 exchanges must confuse Yahoo.
According to SEC filings, there were 3.5 million ADR's issued. I don't know where these other numbers are coming from.
Just a heads up. The Yahoo key stats for shares outstanding are wrong. There are 3.5 million ADR's on NASDAQ, that convert to 42 million ordinary shares. There are 135 million ordinary shares on the London exchange giving a total share count of 177 million.
It's on the fence until we get some news. The Sativex trials are still recruiting so any news from that is still months away. What I'm waiting for are early results from the Epidolex field trials. If the data is positive, GW will jump again. If it's negative - ouch.
Canaccord Genuity projects $2 Billion in sales from the cancer pain and MS spasticity indications. Nothing for epilepsy, colitis, etc. The analyst has been very conservative and has a $39 price target this year. If the $2 Billion in sales materializes, Otsuka gets about $500 Million (25%). So $1.5 Billion for GW. Drug companies typically sell at 2.9 times sales or more. So Gw should have a market cap of $4.35 Billion after it's products are available to patients. 10 times the current price. Again, nothing for the other promising areas. Excellent risk reward ratio. Things have changed with the state #$%$ laws proliferating and the FDA will have little choice but to approve something and GW is already front and center.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You have to be concerned though. Cannabidiol is a powerful therapeutic compound with no side effects. Is big pharma and their buddies at the FDA going to let this little UK company have it to themselves? Maybe the FDA will let GW do all the work and then crush them with a "ruling". Big USA pharma picks up the pieces and introduces a new class of wonder drugs based on cannabis. It's the FDA - Federal government. They can do whatever they want without accountability.
28 is too high unless you give Sativex any credit at all. The problem with waiting is that the FDA could move quickly. Their biggest concern is patients self medicating, making them look irrelevant in chronic intractable conditions. Any positive news will make this stock jump again.
I just looked at the 2 indications seeking Phase III trials. The others are too far off. Epilepsy in kids may get special treatment, but wouldn't be a big revenue producer. Great PR though.
Let's say the FDA approves Sativex for cancer pain and MS spasticity. What are the potential revenues? 400,000 MS patients, 100,000 with spasms uncontrolled. $750 million after partner gets their cut ($10,000 yearly cost). Cancer pain is tough to calculate. 400,000 with pain not controlled by opiates, but Sativex can reduce the amount of opiates needed for ALL cancer patients. A wild guess is maybe 1 million patients get Sativex. $6.5 Billion. Let's say $7 billion total and then cut that in half just because. So $3.5 Billion divided by 177 million ordinary shares. So $19 per share multiplied by 12 shares per ADR equals $228 revenue per ADR. Let's cut it in half again because I see through rose colored glasses. $114 in revenue per ADR. Biogen trades at 10 times revenue. Amgen at 5 times. What am I doing wrong?