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Radian Group Inc. Message Board

mrmojorisingdoors 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 24, 2014 8:14 PM Member since: May 2, 2001
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  • mrmojorisingdoors by mrmojorisingdoors Nov 24, 2014 8:14 PM Flag

    1) DTA. Per the last CC, MAY release in 2014 (albeit probably a slight chance). When DTA is released, I would speculate that we could see a pop of a couple of dollars.

    2) "The Sell". Could be worth $800k= $1.2B. CC also indicated that there was a chance that this could happen by EOY. I would again speculate that we could see a pop of a couple of dollars.

    3) PMIER's. Radian is thinking that the final could be published by EOY. If it is, and if the rules are relaxed a bit (which I think is where folks are leaning on how this will play out), then I would yet again speculate that we could see a pop of a couple of dollars.

    4) IF the above were all to happen within a few weeks of each other (which they would have to in order to occur by EOY), then I would further speculate that we would see a little bit of a squeeze worth a couple of dollars as a result of the fairly significant up trend in price over a short period of time.

    The DTA is not speculation... it's going to happen, question is when. The "Sell" is a little speculative, RDN hasn't actually said that it's going to happen, but I think they've pretty much indicated that it's where their leaning. The PMIER's... they may not be relaxed, but the final will not be any worse than the draft.

    So with that said, if these things don't happen over the next few weeks, I think they will in 1Q15, which leads me to believe that we'll see the mid 20's over the next few months.

    Thoughts?

  • mrmojorisingdoors by mrmojorisingdoors Nov 13, 2014 10:58 PM Flag

    RDN is near their 52 week high... some would say that may be a good time to short.

    My opinion, we have a chance to see a breakout between now and year end.

    Why?

    1) PMIER's - Not sure when the final will be posted, but Radian has stated that their expectation is by year end. The final will not be any worse than the draft. I think the draft is already priced in. Any improvement in the final over and above the draft would be a boost to the stock price.

    2) DTA - Radian has hinted that we could see this in 2014 as opposed to the 2015 timetable previously discussed. A 2014 release of DTA would be a boost to the stock price. Not releasing in 2014 would not be a negative, as 2015 was already projected.

    3) "The sale" - What's the number's on this... something like between $800 million and $1.3? Radian has also said that this might be resolved by year end. This happens... another boost to the stock.

    All of these things could happen over the next 6 weeks.

    Anyone want to speculate what all of this, happening at almost the same time will do to the price?

    If the above happens, you are probably also setting the table for a squeeze..

    Naw.... let's go short.

RDN
16.78+0.180(+1.08%)Dec 24 1:03 PMEST

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