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Radian Group Inc. Message Board

mrmojorisingdoors 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 6, 2014 8:55 PM Member since: May 2, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Earnings Expectations ?

    by enroutehoney Aug 6, 2014 3:12 PM
    mrmojorisingdoors mrmojorisingdoors Aug 6, 2014 8:55 PM Flag

    Rick let me borrow his algorithm... it came up with $1.22..... but $1.23 when factoring income from Clayton.... and -$0.15 when factoring in the face on that comet. But be forewarned, there were no input parameters for the 18m share dilution, the $300m Clayton money giveaway, or the executive bonus bonanza weekend. Rick's got more programming to do.

  • mrmojorisingdoors mrmojorisingdoors Jul 27, 2014 12:09 AM Flag

    No, not enough said. Back when this thing had a $50-$60 stock price, it also had a $45+ book value to support that stock price. Personally, I'd much rather hear your thoughts on how the company is going to get their book value back up into that historic range, as opposed to wild speculation on what the stock price is going to do with no basis for your claim. Where we are today is the private MI's don't have close to the market share they had back then. The current book value is close to 7. The company has not returned to "normalized earnings" yet. Plus they are doing dumb stuff with what precious little money they do have like paying tens of millions of dollars to their exec's in bonus, and paying $300 million for some company that makes $1 million in a good year (what kind of ROI is that???). Even if that company increased their profit 10 fold it would still be a lousy investment. So yes, I know things are looking better, but even if they got back to "normalized" and started making quarterly $2 a share income, and we got some benefit from the DTA next year and such, probably the best we could hope for is a book value in the 30's in three years. So I can see a $30-$35 stock price in three years if they quickly get back to normalized earnings, but short of a squeeze or some unfounded speculative buying, not sure how you support your $50+ price target IMO.

  • Reply to

    Radian in no hurry to post earnings

    by enroutehoney Jul 23, 2014 11:52 AM
    mrmojorisingdoors mrmojorisingdoors Jul 23, 2014 7:33 PM Flag

    Well, not sure what your basis is for your conclusion. Five out of the past six years they have announced 2Q results in August. So are you saying that it is a bad sign that they're being fairly consistent with their reporting date?? But I totally agree that they don't appear to be in a hurry, nor have they been historically. JMO

  • mrmojorisingdoors by mrmojorisingdoors Jul 11, 2014 12:13 AM Flag

    You guys might recall that MTG and RDN were set to do a merger right before the bottom fell out. So here we are today. RDN says they're okay with the new requirements. But they want to grow, and they can't do that if they're forced to keep all of their money in a savings account. On the other hand, MTG, which has a profitable and fairly attractive forward looking book of business (as does RDN) is strapped for cash and can't meet the requirements (unless they raise more capital... and come on... do the shareholders really want them selling more stock?). So wondering what collectively RIF and cash would look like if they merged? Time for Tommie to crunch numbers and Rick to fire up his subroutine.

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