Several big flaws in your assessment.
200-250MM funds flow is not fixed, it is at absolutely bottom oil prices at WTI ~$45. PWE has 75MM in FX monetizing reserve for next year.
As oil prices rise, funds flow will rise exponentially as fixed costs mostly remain the same.
You are not right even close. You are surely wrong. Hiding the truth does not serve for everyone.
If you pay attention to Notes only, it's your choice, but the stock is down and the market says it pays attention to total debts. The company is not out of the woods. They reserved 75M in FX gains for next year to extend covenants compliance to Q4 2016.
Take a look to November presentation. It clearly says Net debts were 2.414B, exactly as I posted. Down to ~2.0B after 400M repayment in Q4.
They may choose to apply entire 400M to Notes, but then their bank facility would rise by 165M. They have 650M undrawn, so it would drop to 500M (700M drawn).
Bank debt is also used for covenant calculation and carries high interest, so it is the zero sum game, the total debt will be 2.0B by the end of Q4 according to Nov presentation. I use 1.9B because I believe that Canadian dollar will rise to 0.80 with rising oil prices by Dec 31 resulting in Note debt to drop by ~100M as they are mostly in USD.
I think the report is not bad at all, inline with my expectations, it marks the lowest point for the company, and the market will realize PWE value, and the stock will rise even in short term, but the truth is important for everyone.
You forgot working capital deficit of 165M that is the portion of total debt..
Senior debt for covenant calculations was 2.249B, but total debt was 2.414B.
This is inline as I expected 2.3-2.35B with monetizing FX that didn't happen.
They will reduce or eliminate WC deficit in Q4 from asset sale proceeds as they did in Q1, but senior debt will get much less for repayment, likely 230M only out of 398M proceeds.
Still inline with my expectations of 1.9B total debt by the end of Q4 with the help of FX if Canadian dollar rises to 0.80.GLTAL