he's had 5 yrs ...hasn't generated really any new revenue...yet has taken roughly 7 million out of this company.....to date he's only enriched himself
...since 2011 he's taken over 4 million in stock sales out of this company and a 500k + salary..and we'll see another stock sale in early October.......the stock is down now over 5 yrs....its time...long term holders are battered and beaten mr davis....its time
I'd agree if you didn't have a large number of the holders of NE being index related owners...when they get a spinoff they cant hold because the spin off isn't in any index or not the index that NE is in....bk is an absurd statement at this point...no debt maturities until years out and solid balance sheet
the sector is big time out of favor....mgr's got shares of a spin out that they really didn't want...negative tax ruling and a mgt that chickened out from their previous indication of a 1$ div, an inept bod and weak oil.....put it all together and this is what happens..this stock is 1.3x ebitda, 2.5x eps with 8% coupon...its dirt cheap at 6.22, 7.22, 8.22...this is long term GIFT
things are obviously bad in the sector...july 30 goldman had pgn at 2.9x ebitda when stock was 11.42....or roughly 390mil in ebitda....lets discount that now because things are bad by 100mil...a big haircut to 290mil...even with a 40% discount to esv do rig or a 2.5x ebitda multiple you should have a 8.50$ stock...with 5.8% yield...stock is overdone down here in a big way
and that's why if mgt could talk about ebitda it would do a lot more for the stock price than the div
but at 1.6x ebitda...the stock is dirt dirt dirt cheap here...do rig esv still all well over 4x ebitda...even if you discount ebitda by 20% its still dirt cheap...company needs to tell investors that there have been no material changes to their ebitda expectations ...
yup....mgt had an opportunity to demonstrate that they believe their stock is grossly undervalued...instead they bailed out and went with industry div yield....which I understand if they annced a big shareback that would start immediately....if they spent 42mil on divs and 50 mil on buybacks here it would go a long way to cleaning up the overhang...selling below 7 imo is simply holders from NE who are index related...meaning they have to sell spin off because its noty in any index ...but there no way now that the stock can trade 10$ when rig esv do yields are 2x that...
mgt flat out lied when they told investors yield would be in the 1$ range...its that simple
wont be surprised to see lawsuits coming.....saying pre spin off that div would be 1$ then a few months later have it be 50 cts...without any formal change in guidance from company is staggering
...bunch of cowards and tells you someone knew this last month...on the upside...leaves bal sheet in great shape
absurd the valuation is...reading GS note from july 30....they had PGN trading at 2.9x ebitda (lowest in the group) with implied div yield of ' highest in the group"
now assuming things haven't changed dramatically...I doubt it given ceo being at every conference... the stock is now trading at 1.7x ebitda....that's nuts
now given each NE holder got one share of pgn for every three NE held...just among the top 10 holders that's 38 mil shares...digging deeper statest, blrock, and vanguard are all index holder of NE...those 3 received 15 mil shares of PGN and technically cant hold because PGN is not in any index...add in bad industry fundamentals , a buyers strike, and here we are...we gotta be close to meaningful turn...
now we'll see if mgt has the guts to stick with their originally stated goal of 80-90mil div...if they do...stock recovers quick
im sure ole randy stilley sure would like to collect 500k a yr on his stock ownership in div's while he struggles to run the company in a difficult environment..as well as entire bod
..the share decline now gives them the excuse to start a 60ct div and still be well above peers and save a bunch of cash...on the other hand I'm sure mgt sure would like a 90ct div for their own selfish reasons as im sure they all own a boat load of stock...either way this mgt needs to give investors some clarity on revs, backlog, ebitda, free cash flow etc...from all indications its absurdly cheap and heavily shrted...something has to give...
I don't buy the argument that NE did something super shady...too much too lose on that front...now did they spin this off because they saw it as a low/no growth area and ultimately it helps NE's multiple going forward to have it separated...yes...I buy that....but at this level it appears...at least on the surface to be an exceptional buying opportunity...plenty of fear and disgust built into the stock price here
Stock is down 50%...and shrt int up huge.....it's all about what's baked in now....company needs to get a div annced ..even if it's 75cts a yr and buys back stock...stock will get back to 9$ + quick....then broader industry needs to improve....down here stock is cheap???even if you discount eps and fcf
well who knows...company hasn't exactly lived up to their promise of distributing 80-90mil to a dividend or 1$ a share roughly...and given softness in off shore rig mkt its hard to determine what the earnings will be...at very least its probably trading at 4x eps to be on safe side..still cheap....even if company now distributes 70mil in cash flow you are looking at at 10%+ yield...the company just needs to establish a div...radio silence is killing the stock..
tmmrw will be interesting because they present at a conf in Europe...ceo needs to be more transparent about the div
...they keep working hard but cant find any real sellers...tick tock tick tock....could be one exciting fall
...shrties getting nervous cuz they cant find stock??...Merril always seems to start the day with 200 shares...then others follow...yesterday Barclays, gs, ubs and ms all advertising less than 1000 shares....
tick tock tick tock...