I think that should happen around the end of the year or earlier if the "Jakafi lobby"'s influence wanes.
That was a dream of End!! To-day's announcement of completion of the offering including those awardrd to the underwriters proves that End's expectation wasn't accurate. Of course, the trading volume was twice the size of offering, perhaps indicating, in my view, purchase by institutions that may have doubts about the anticipated success of Imetelstat. The company's coming out with the offering, despite having $66M cash in hand, proved to those institutions that Imtelstat success is a given story among the company insiders and they added heavily to their portfolios. Once that has taken place, shorts and monkeys have jumped in, dragging the SP down. I believe the institutions are done for the time being; however, some may take opportunities when the SP is driven too low to let go their desire to add more.
marco. I believe that institutions and insiders now hold almost 50% of the outstanding shares. These parties are in for several years. Out of the remaining 50%, a majority are long-term retail holders who are convinced of the success of Imetelstat. Thus, just a fifth (may be less!) or so of the shares is in the hands of traders, primarily hedge funds. These dogs will activate the trading when there is a potential news, that in turn activates all monkey traders. So, just watch the fun and, if you are an investor, add more when there is a selloff if you have money to do so; otherwise, just relax and wait until at least mid-2015 to decide if you want to take your profit or stay in longer. A lot of these traders go by chart technicals and that's what is going to have predominant effect on manifestation of SP variations until the FDA grants the FTD or BTD status, followed by some serious talk of a merger or a takeover. I expect the former to happen late this year.
That's a typical behavior of monkeys! A monkey jumps in and out, following other monkeys!! As long as there is a jungle, monkeys WILL be there!!!
Spectro, I whole-heartedly agree with you. You have hit the nail on its head. In my opinion, it's one of the most precisely and well-written posts on this board I have come across for quite some time! Thanks.
Well, I read a lot of posts except non-relevant junk. The post by Elk was well-intended to provide some knowledge; but, it missed clarity about the practicality of such research for clinical use. I agree this is a Yahoo board and not a scientific platform; but, if you present scientific information, it should be balanced so that even idiots do not misinterpret.
Oh God, we will be missing those cheese-impacted colon stories and a constant presence!! God bless you with luck in the seafood business.
Geron's stem-cell assets may be loosing value with advancement in technology developing hESCs or hESC-like stem cells from adult stem cells or "super cells" along with progress in genomic studies. What is not loosing value is Imetelstat. In fact, it may remain a wonder drug for years to come for treatment of cancers, especially hematologic ones, and perhaps for solid tumors if further research shows it can work wonderfully in combination with other drugs. I think the Geron management did the right thing, as a business entity, to give up stem-cell work and concentrate on oncology or just Imetelstat. I was very upset about that decision a couple of years ago; not any more, especially not after Mayo's study.
It's one thing to prove efficacy of treatment on rats in a lab trial and is another to prove so in the FDA's human trial!! Such researches exist in hundreds all over the world and existed for at least the last decade!! The thing is, before such trials become human clinical treatment, it takes a decade or more. Also, ACTC's RPE cells derived from approved hESC lines, without killing the embryo, are going to be much cheaper and much more expedient for delivery on site than those pluripotent cells derived from the cord blood. So please do not get carried away with half-baked knowledge. Study all aspects thoroughly before trying to present something that misleads others. Thanks.
I agree. They hired an idiot who made all changes and screwed up bad. Must be a cousin of someone higher up! Well, favoritism in the name of changes is a norm!!!
eoi, the ACTC SP went up due to expectation by half-baked pundits that Lanza and Hawkings are going to discuss the RPE treatment as a kind of breakthrough treatment. Since that did not happen and, on the contrary it was described that the adult stem cells and super stem cells can be used to produce hESCs by certain gene manipulation, it threw the cold water on the idea of the BT. Well, as I explained above, RPE cells treatment still has future and Lanza's presence at ACTC WILL make a difference. But, ACTC has tough financial issues in hand, and dilution is in the horizon. Thus, the ACTC SP is most likely to drift downward, whereas Geron's SP is most certainly headed higher.
Of course, Lanza was the first one to appear on the show, I do not believe the show referenced RPE cells as a breakthrough product. Yes, the RPE cells will be the best product before the technology for the pluripotent and super stem cells catch up which can take a decade or more. But the ACTC trials are still in Ph 1 which will end soon and move into Ph 2; i.e., it has a few years to pass before the RPE-cell method gets approval for going to the market.
He did not include any foreign revenue. I commented about it and my comment appears below the article. I believe that if Imetelstat is the first-of-kind and a breakthrough drug, it may fetch a substantially greater revenue through global sale. And, therefore, I believe, the company must be merged to a large pharma soon after reaching Ph 3 so that other applications can be advanced much faster and a hug global market can be reached fast. Since the IP expires in 2025, faster and larger the sales before 2025, the better would be the profits. Also, Geron doesn't have any mangement capability and has no other product in the pipe line; hence, its survival as a stand-alone company would be suicidal.
This show aired last night actually indicated a brighter future for Geron's Imetelstat (in controlling cancer) than ACTC's RPE cells developed from hESCs to regenerate retina cells. The use of hESCs to generate differentiated stem cells may have competition from adult stem-cell manipulation using the four genes to create hESCs or use of the "Super Cells", both from a person's own body to do that. Anyhow the ACTC betters had expected that the show will emphasize ACTC's RPE cell regeneration technique to be a "breakthrough" technique, but alas, it didn't do so and instead pointed to Geron's Imtelstat to have that potentia in my opinionl!!
Black, please do not blame Scarlett since you really do not know if he has been talking to the FDA w.r.t. the BTD or FTD or not. I am of the opinion that not just Scarlett but also Tefferi have been talking to the FDA and I will not be surprised if Geron's Ph 2 plan is being prepared in consultation and some guidance from both the FDA and Tefferi. In my view, all three parties want the drug out in the market ASAP, but in full compliance to the regulations (perhaps to minimize litigation).
abeman, what a thorough review. The only complaint I have is that the title of the post misleads! Based on the arguments you present that are very reasonable, you are optimistic and not pessimistic!! Anyhow, thanks for taking the time for a thorough review of the 8K and presenting your logical thoughts. (P.S.: I gave you thumbs up in all!!)
is still a puzzle to me! EXEL and PLUG both had similar recent offerings and both priced those above the market price of their shares. The stubbornly higher Geron SP after announcement of the offering does mean that the WS also considered that to be low. The myth is why did the management do so, especially if the cash in hand is $66M, enough to go for more than a year?!! Was it the consortium of WS underwriters that manipulated management for doing so or was it simply the stupidity of the management or was there something else? Any thoughts?