in my view, are apparent from the statements made by Scarlett to-day during the CC. Originally, we were told that the MF trial IND was transferred from Mayo to Geron; now, it is going to Janssen and, hence, Geron doesn't need to add to its staff and will shrink it down to 21. This change is a bit more time-consuming and, hence, the MF trial delay. Thus, Geron is practically out of the trial and Tefferi will be working with far-better hands than at Geron and the trial, once begun, will move much faster and more efficiently as Janssen is well-liked by the FDA. Geron, on the other hand, is to concentrate on further research for NEW products in the field of oncology (primarily in hematological applications but may go beyond) as Janssen takes over the MF/MDS trials and also work related to further applications of IMET. In simple words, IMET is being sold to Janssen and, if Geron succeeds in developing exciting new products (very likely in my view), Janssen may grab those too to develop those as commercial products!! In my view, thus, the stage is set for eventual merger with Janssen, meaning, down the road, we Geron shareholders will become J&J shareholders!!
All in all, I am excited with these developments because IMET is now in good hands and Scarlett may be shown the door out by the board (his job is done!!) to get someone more acceptable to Janssen and who is more apt for further research. (Would that Russian doctor who developed IMET be brought back?) Perhaps a right guy from Janssen may be the best candidate to replace Scarlett!!
I think this is best for the shareholders who want to hold the shares for a long-term investment. Of course, mon...key traders will be mad (who were looking for quick profits) and will selloff to-morrow! Shorts, primarily the hedge funds, will exit too, gradually. Buying opportunities for long-term investors are being created. -Huh may have to quit Any thoughts? Only serious responses, please!
These successful rich guys hire experts and knowledgeable specialists for building the funds they invest their money into. Meaning, if these funds invest substantial amounts or a substantial percentage of shares of a company, that decision is not taken without an exhaustive study. In short, if they have a substantial interest in Geron as shown through the filing(s), there is a pretty good chance that Geron shares are an attractive investment. I will not read it beyond that!! And, for me, it's sufficient to know and feel assured of my investment in Geron. I will not be a fool, if I am a retail short, to keep shorting it!! The real puzzle is who really are the people shorting 30M shares of Geron? Are they fools too?
The stock trading is manipulated currently to keep the SP low so that those given chance to accumulate will get a decent profit when the SP jumps up, perhaps within a month and when the shorts rush frantically to cover. All other talk and Bollinger-band or wedge theory garbage doesn't apply to overall trading of this stock. WS controls and not mom-and-pop trader!!
If the 'invention' is a reality, Irish, even if other telomerase inhibitors develop, IMET will remain a pioneer and with J&J on the side of Geron, it will remain a substantial force. And, there will be further research continued by both Geron ad Janssen to improve IMET further into a more effective enzyme. Substantiated by genomic studies, I am sure, several cancers will find IMET to rule the treatment practice for decades. And, do not forget the global spread in the forthcoming global times.
I suspect the MF Ph 2 would be modified to allow a wider scope trial with a peep into potential mult-applications of IMET, if not for immediate clinical use then for data collection to jump later to other applications in addition to MDS and AML. This could be one of the reasons J&J got into it and is taking longer. Once IMET is approved fast for MF perhaps through FTD, the orphan-drug use and status will then have been facilitated. All this expansion and sophistication of the multi-use potential of IMET could not have been handled by the small cookie Geron and its incapable management. J&J involvement and Tefferi's/Mayo's direction were necessary. I suspect that J&J will say ta-ta to Huh and Scarlett and takeover or place their own guy to handle Geron sooner or later. My thoughts, of course!! Any comments?!! Please be relevant. Thanks.
Nothing on partnership, if any. They have $4.4M cash in hand and another $18M. Burn rate $9M for 2014 and if we assume approx,. $12M for 2015 and higher in 2016, they will need to look for funding or partnership some time next year. That will be better because by then they will have some encouraging results from both SMD and AMD from both the trials in the U.S.A. and Europe which should give them a better bargaining strength. I think, it's time to accumulate because the institutions may wait till later this year. I think they are on the right track and we need a bit more patience.
I now have a suspicion that the FDA had deliberately placed the hold to force Geron to tie with a large pharma like J&J to properly plan the Ph 2 and, hence, speed up the process to final licensing. The FDA may have preseen IMET's potential. Note that the BTD or FTD status can not be granted until the FDA is convinced of a clinical-stage pharma to cope up with global demand with adequate manufacturing, control, distribution and further research capability. Geron with a staff of only 40 certainly would not have been seen as that kind of outfit unless it collaborated with a right large pharma. Thus, the decision to join hands with J&J may have been a joint effort by not only Geron and FDA but also Tefferi/Mayo. My thoughts, of course!!
RPE cells show mature effect within 6 months to a year after injecting, meaning SMD Ph 2 results should have clearer effectiveness demonstrated by end of third quarter 2015 if the trial starts soon: and, 2nd quarter 2016 for AMD if that trial starts a quarter later. Hopefully, the FDA may grant the fast track to the SMD trial in early 2016 and to the AMD trial in late 2016 or even earlier if Ocata management can analyze results well and fast and is quick in sending its request for the FTD to the FDA. Any comments? Only serious ones, please!!
Ryan and Jack, both of you have excellent posts; Ryan's excellent summary and overview and Jack's informative post. Thanks to make coming to this board worth the time and help reduce vermin control the board. Please keep posting.
If this works out well, along with a partnership deal before year-end 2015, the company may not need to raise thre float as much since the NASDAQ listing this quarter and the trial results available may jack up the share price by early 2016 to a level that may require the issuance of added shares to minimal quantity. Then, you may be better off accumulating now since, dilution if any, will be neutralized by the rise in the SP. Those afraid of dilution may then be regretful if they do not see this.
trying to keep the SP dragged down!! The retail holders of shares, neither are long institutional holders, are not going to give up their shares, yet these nuts sitting in the Manhattan high rises and trying to please their bosses through trading profits are apparently playing all stupid games, including manipulating SP through fake orders or through cooperation of MM. If they are chasing our shares, they are in their dreams!!! Idiots!!!
Very evident to-day. These lazy bums will never give up their habit of making money without sweating!! God bless them when they can't digest all the money made through manipulation and lies!! They call themselves smart doing so; I call them societal cancer!!
These new developments (Sienna's interest in the bladder- cancer diagnosis, IMET's hold lift, and potential new applications of IMET and its modifications for general applications to all cancers - all of these based on the telomere-telomerase concept) should make Geron a household name in the cancer arena and, hence, Geron's merger or acquisition by J&J should bring Geron shareholders decent return on their investment. This all started after Tefferi/Mayo came on board!! To get Tefferi/Mayo to do the MF trial, thus, was a landmark decision, isn't it?!
the presentation was to CEO's, not Wall Street guys or in a hematology conference!! It was designed to be informative to an audience most of which did not have any idea what Geron is and where it is now; nothing else. I have been at pains to tell you guys this for some time and was not expecting any breakthgrough announcement important to CEOs, beacuse that announcement (specifically, the J&J deal) is out already!! This is to build up awareness of a smart-group of people who were otherwise ignorant about the company and where it stands now. If you review the presentation wih that in mind, you will understand the value of it!!
Black, Geron must have something up its sleeve in terms of at least one exciting new product and Janssen will take advantage of its clinical-stage small-outfit organization to develop it to trial stage. I do not think a merger is in the wings soon!! For a company like J&J a few hundred million dollars saving you are talking about is out of consideration in view of a much bigger prize later!! Just do not dream about it!!! Be patient and watch what comes later. Scarlett may be out soon (because his million dollar plus is too much to oversee pure research work and a staff of only 21. The board will have to squeeze him out.
I am in for a long term!! The J&J deal and the Mayo confirmation of IMET power are the best thing that has happened for this company - It's a recognition by two highly reputed outfits of the power of IMET. I further believe that multi applications of IMET beyond MF and MDS) will also become a reality. The target first must be get license for MF so that the orphan-drug usage can be started. J&J are not a foolish company to give guarantee for q billion dollars to a 40-person small biotech. IMET is a gem and Janssen-Mayo are out there to put a bright shine yo it.
Yes that plus the SA article. Also, it takes institutional guys some time after the CC to analyze situation and digest before they start jumping in. I think there are several other reasons for the interest to-day: 1. Now, it's all Janssen doing everything to take IMET to commercialization and also take it to multi applications 2. Geron is going to do what is good at doing: research in development of other compounds, for which it has a good stream of money flowing in so that it doesn't ever have to worry about financing, meaning very low probability or none for foreseeable future and for SP dilution. With Mayo's solid performance of proving that IMET brings about CRs and Rs for late-stage MF patientswithout serious side effects and Janssen taking over fully is convincing enough to some at WS now that IMET is NOT going to fail as often happens for many clinical-stage drugs in Ph 2. That doubt is almost mute. Thus, I see, one by one, a lot of institutional buyers will get into this stock. You perhaps had the last chance when it was well below $3.00 to accumulate cheap. From now on, the SP may be on a continuous rise to level above $5. My assessment, of course!!
Do not forget that Geron still owns a lot of patents and did develop IMET, the BTD drug that brought history's first CRs and PRs for those dying cancer patients. Its Further development looks bright. Yes, those shareholders who held the shares since 90s have been frustrated and rightly so. But, that can't be true for those who became shareholders just a few years back. If those early holders keep their shares for a few more years, it may not be so bad. I think the company had IMET up its sleeve and decided to concentrate on it which resulted in expulsion of Okarma and bringing in Scarlett. Now that Scarlett's job is pretty much done, he will be given a decent severance package and let go. Stay tuned! My views, of course!!