I simply can't agree with you, End!! The buck has stopped at Geron, period!! Of course, the hold originated at the FDA may have some political reason (such as the Jakafi-lobby influence through a board member), it's naive to think that the Geron management didn't screw up!! Remember Scarlett stated last March that "they" were "surprised" (rather, "shocked"!) to learn about the hold just when it was imposed?!!! Did you ever analyse why he blurted out so?
Do you guys think that use of Jakafi inhibitor approved by the same FDA for similar oncologic application has less severe side effects, especially liver related, than Imetelstat? If no, then what ARE the other reasons for the FDA hold?!!!
End, if Mayo gets partial hold lifted in two months and if the MF application gtes CRs and PRs unlike any other drug in the entire globe, six months and still waiting to release the hold on Geron's use of Imetelstat even only for MF, don't you think there must be something else that keeps the FDA holding this critical application that should really be on the fast track? Aren't your models forgetting something important that jives with the reality?
What a distortion!! Go back and read the post again where I stated that I switched some of my investment to ACTC, not all!! Can you read English well or are just Arabic?!!
What nonsense!! Just reflects your intellectual capacity.
Anyhow, for the benefit of visitors of this board, I would like to clarify that my posts on ACTC on this Geron board compare ACTC and Geron as I see both and,hence, it s relevancy to this board. These are my opinions and observations if those can help any one. My father doesn't work at ACTC so that I need to push it!! Besides, reasons for my optimism for ACTC have been explained through several of my posts in the past. I do not need an idiot to tell me what I should do.
You forgot to mention the appointment of board of advisers made up of well-known experts in the opthalmic area. This means that all these guys also see a future for the company and it also means that the future steps ACTC will take will be very thoughtfully taken so the licensing process goes smoothly since these members will bear a lot of influence at the FDA , unlike two bozos at Geron making all the decisions based on their whims. I also find the new ACTC management is more shareholder friendly than that at Geron. Of course, I hope the FDA lifts the hold on Imetelstat without reservations or conditions. It is too early to say which of the two companies' shares will move relatively in 2015 and later and, therefore, you will be better off splitting your investment in the two. It should be your own decision where to put more.
Regarding your concerns about OPC1, are the investors and WS foolish to take the Asteria SP from $2.60 to current one well above $6 just upon the FDA approval of beginning OPC1 trial? Of course, you will say it's a traders-driven phenomenon!! What a lame argument!!
End, they could have easily joined hands, through merger,,with a large pharma if they were feeling financial crunch to continue on OPC1 and doing further research in the hESC field than selling those dirt-cheap to a small outfit like BioTime!! You will say that they tried and couldn't find a buyer. But, do you have a proof for that? How can you then, disagree with me to deny, as a possibility, that Scarlett and Huh may have treated stemcell assets like a stepson to Oncology, meaning their personal feeling overwhelmed them to ignore shareholder desire and interest. Let us say it wasn't so. How could they screw up ET/PV/melanoma trial and fail to collect the information the FDA is looking for? Also, if they were going to put these trials on the shelf, why did they waste money on going on with those trials until the FDA placed hold on those? Why did they wait to do that until the FDA hold came about? If the hold was delayed, wouldn't they have continued those trials and wasted money? Tell me if are these not management screw ups? If he made such s rash decisions, how could Scarlett ask for $2.3M compensation? He is a physician and must be rich enough to show to shareholders that he will accept only a token dollar in compensation until he brings Imetelstat trial to Ph 2, instead of putting some of those sincere ones on the street!! I am pretty sure that an action like that would have made the shareholders happy; and, also WS!! Mr. Pandit did that when he was the CEO of Citi, why couldn't Scarlett do that for a financially strapped company?
Jack, I do not know how long you have been invested in and following Geron. The fact of the matter is that before Scarlett and Huh joined, Geron was considered a leading hESC company' not just in the U.S.A. but all over the globe. It had a high reputation and there were very high expectation of the company becoming an Amgen and a pioneer in changing the way the medical treatment was being given. OPC1 trial for spinal-cord injury did not fail and had been viewed as the first and only trial that would begin use of hESC-based era in the medical science. Of course, factors other than Huh and Scarlett, especially non-hESC-based stem-cell researchers and vested interests were driving opposition and causing the noise despite none other than the NIH Director expressing publicly that the hESC based stemcells were the "gold standard". And, just like now the FDA coming in the way for a fast approval of Imetelstat, the FDA too then began prodding embarrassingly hard, placing obstacles into the OPC1 trial making it too hard for Geron to keep on going without adequate funding. That's when Huh and later Scarlett were added to the company who decided to put on shelf all stem-cell based activity and make Geron purely a dime-a-dozen oncology-based company.
The company lost its glamour and became almost a non-entity (until Tefferi brought it back to limelight)!! In my view they both drove the board into getting rid of the stem-cell assets and other assets cheap while putting all eggs in just one basket - Imetelstat. Got rid of hundreds of employees who had developed products like OPC and Imtelstat. The solid-tumor trials with Imetelstat were mishandled and declared a failure by Scarlett. And, until Tefferi came along and gave life back with his MF trial, while the two bozos mishandled the ET/PV/melanoma trials (only to be terminated!!), shareholders had been really frustrated so much that some thought that the company may fold altogether!! You perhaps know the last part
Kip, I have been reading a lot of discussion on this board on what really Geron gave away, what rights they kept and what was snatched from it. I have no comment on those since I don't have any full knowledge and find that such a discussion, in absence of authentic data, ma be like four blind persons describing an elephant: One who touched its trunk thought it's like an alligator, the other who touched a foot thought it like a tree trunk, the third one holding its tail thought it's like a snake, and the fourth who touched its tummy, thought it was like a huge ball!! Who do you believe?!!!
End, you appear to be such a hypocrite that you do not really want to get the point I have been making. And, keep on insisting that what you see is the truth, which obviously is without any solid background! Yes, You're the one who misguided others that the hold was coming off in July and now it's September and yet no word when it actually will be!! Let alone that, there is no word yet if Geron has submitted any response to the FDA's six-month old query and actually what date it is going to do that!!
And your statement that both Scarlett and Huh are "eminent scientists" make me even laugh more as you are simply exposing your shallowness and ignorant about what makes an eminent scientist!! Just deepen your knowledge and widen your short-sighted horizon and come out of the hole you are in if you want to come up with an unquestionably respectable status even on this board.
I have a strong suspicion that Huh who worked at Sloan Kettering for years who was actually hired to look for partnership(s) and who is now COB somehow managed to convince the then Geron board to get rid of the stem-cell portfolio and put on the shelf the OPC1 trial under the excuse of its cost and funding problem and concentrate on just the oncology. Apparently, he disliked Okarma or vice versa and the board had to decide to get rid of Okarma perhaps with an understanding that that portfolio go to West's BioTime. Scarlett was hired to replace Okarma; and, Huh and Scarlett, both of who had sold off their clinical stage companies during Ph 2 trials became like-minded close buddies so much so perhaps that Scarlett had his hand in making Huh the Chairman of the board (COB). I do not think, there was any concern to any of the two to make a proper evaluation of the stem-cell assets because they both were too kin to make Geron an oncology-based company. Apparently, they did not care what the shareholders wanted and deliberately kept the matter under the rug. In my view, none of the two has any great vision (like Lanza at ACTC) or even adequate foresight to judge if there is any bright future for Geron's hESC-based accomplishments. Thus, to answer your question: I would say, Huh and Scarlett just gave away stem-cell assets to BioTime and were happy to do that!! None of the two bozos ever thought that those accomplishments had a substantial future scope.
End, analysts indicated in the past (before Scarlett) and many on this board believed then that the SP could go up to $40-$50 and some even expected it to go to $100; but, after scarlett-Huh and company reduced this company to a one-drug oncology based company. Now no body is talking about the share price to go to $40-$50; but. everybody seems to think in terms of the SP reaching $10-$15. My numbers may be off a bit; but my point is that since Scarlett took over, the company's future worth has gone down substantially along with its reputation. That fact you can not deny. Bottom line: He and Huh did not take the company valuation higher, they brought it down. Is that good management? That's why i call them "bozos" who also have been ignoring retail shareholders, although draw fat salaries at the cost of the very shareholders. That's unethical, especially when both are licensed physicians and have signed code of ethics. Of course, I fully understand the future prospects and better prospects of hematological application of Imetelstat than for solid-tumor malignancies; but, do not forget that the drug was developed by scientists who were put on the street and neither Scarlett nor Huh can take ANY credit for development of the wonder drug although they are both going to rip the benefits of success of Imetelstat while depriving those to its originators. And, what about the shareholders who paid hundreds of millions through their pockets to earn those 500-some patents, including Imetelstat, got frustrated and divested out after Scarlett and Huh gave away a lot of them cheap or almost free!! Is it all ethical?
Look I am a senior-level professional engineering specialist, have a graduate degree and have held very high positions in the companies I worked; i.e. I am a science major and not a finance major and do understand intricacies of drug chemistry and effects; but I will not engage into digging stuff I can not have full access or discuss the stuff here. Thanks.
I am surprised, and shocked, End, when a person like you, so highly regarded on this board for technical details and logic, to present an argument that uses the SP of ASTY that has been swinging like a yo-yo!! By the way, it's not the price traders bring about that is valued but the initial price of the ASTY shares ($2.60)?) that counts as the sale price because a lot of Geron shareholders may have sold off their shares at a lot less than $4.00!! And, to-day, the traders took the price to above $9 and quickly brought it down to $6!! Anyhow, you presenting that argument in support of stemcell assets being sold off at a fair(??) price is simply laughable.
Regarding tax-loss is another laughable argument you are making in favor of the asset being sold fairly! How much of that loss did the shareholders have now? What if a shareholder who held the Geron shares for the last ten years and sold off when the assets were disposed off got from that loss?!!
Finally, do you think Scarlett should get annually $2.3M compensation to run a company with only 40 employees and just a one-product company, the product which is on hold for six months and the company doesn't have much to do? Why did the bozos failed to get the data the FDA is looking for in their trials but are now waiting for the Mayo's MF data?
End, I have given my points in two of my posts herein before. You should digest those before asking me an irrelevant question of what SP I am looking for. And. let me assure you that I have been consistently invested in Geron and for a longer time than you have been.
Don't you agree that this management got rid of the stemcell assets too cheap for it to be a smart move? How much did the shareholders pitched in to acquire those assets - 700-800M dollars? And, what did they sell it for? Secondly, why did these idiots you so fondly love wasted their time in the solid tumor trials? Only to announce prematurely and unwisely that those had failed? Did those really? And, finally, what would have happened to Imetelstat's future if Tefferi did not come along? Aren't these bozos are now riding on the success brought about by Tefferi? Yes, you may argue that Scarlett picked Tefferi and not Tefferi picked Imetelstat!! Any proof you have to argue that? And, what would you say if the latter is true? You dig all the details about patients and so forth; but have you ever dug any facts about what went on in the board and what the ex-employees who are off on the street say about this management? Please do not get offended when I stat that you are more apt and spend a lot of time to technical aspects and never on administrative and management aspects, doing what you often loose the big picture. Isn't it?
Finally, you go back and review your own posts just two to three months back and see for yourself what you were telling others on this board about the lifting of the hold!! You were too sure then that it would be lifted soon!! What happened after that is everybody's knowledge!! Don't you learn from your own mistakes?
Well, I respect End who, in my view, is too preoccupied in technical details to give enough weightage to administrative and business aspects that are also important for an investor. Of course, he is smart enough to get out at the right time. Although I never worked as an administrator, I know that the first lesson they give to executives is to see the big picture and ignore details (they say that a detail-oriented guy can never make a good executive - a baloney!!) ; whereas a scientist must pay attention to even minute details. End is a latter type. Just as all fingers in a hand are not the same, it doesn't mean that a shorter finger is less important than a longer one!!