Thanks, End, for your thoughts. While you see the glass half full, I see it half empty until the FDA lifts the hold and grants Geron's MF trial the Fast Track designation which it already slowed down. Hope Imetelstat application to AML and MDS are expanded at Mayo and Mayo finds those very encouraging. Perhaps, before that, Geron will have merged with a large pharma.
IWS, your presumptions appear very credible to me. Hope that's what is going on. However, it will be a mistake to rely too much on Tefferi giving any substantially new information except perhaps repeating more strongly what he declared a month ago. Yes, we have to wait till 12th to make a better judgment.
Yes, rusty, the hedges don't stay in stocks that are not flying now! They are day traders primarily and may have thought that Scarlett really did not give any time line for the FDA lift or starting of the MF trial, they are leaving to find greener pasture elsewhere. Of course, that's what I think about the selling pressure this morning.
End, I have a feeling that since Tefferi had to face some substantial criticism from Jakafi lobby-influenced patients and others in the MPN forum for blurting out aggressive comments in favor of Imetelstat against Jakafi, he is much more cautious and perhaps wants to make double sure that what he stated then still stands true. Jakafi lobby IS much stronger than we expect and he seems to have realized that. I think, he will publish the data once it's thoroughly reviewed. As long as his delay in publication of the findings doesn't mean he is doing that at the cost of his patients, he is going to wait till he is fully ready. And, since the FDA already has caused the delay in starting the MF Ph 2 trial by Geron, he gets that much longer time to be patient!!
Well, Geron has already been beaten down enough to go market way when Scarlett's presentation gives no negative news! Do you remember when after Tefferi presented the MF trial data, it kept going up despite market's direction?
Well, Maine, the WS world is greedy and lack any ethics while seeking to be wealthy. You can't ignore some such factors. You just experienced apparently what such an influence at the FDA can do. They create enough road blocks to cause unwanted damage, hoping you to fail!! Of course, truth prevails; but, often, at what cost in this greedy manipulating world?
Despite absence of any negativity in Scarlett's presentation, the trading so far shows that the selling pressure sightly exceeds the buying pressure, although the trade size is generally below 50K. .Do you think a hedge fund is doing that? If so why? Any thoughts?
Box, I find End's summary pretty accurate. I did not have time yet to critically examine the presentation details. I hope to do so sometime to-day and, if different than what End has assessed, I will certainly post my thoughts. Thanks.
End, the judges at various courts where the suits are filed will not be all the same; some are likely to be influenced by vested lobbies and, hence. their judgment will be somewhat unfavorable to Geron. However, where, honest and respectable judges decide, the suits are most likely to be rejected. In that situation, I do not think that Geron will end up paying any damage. Remember that Geron too will have its lawyers and facts on its side. #$%$ lawyers seeing that the ground is slipping from under them, will quietly withdraw and try to find some other scapegoats. I think, especially if shareholders do not cooperate, it will happen fast. However, you have to expect that there are crooked shareholders or those shareholders that are planted by vested interests. And, they will muddy the water for Geron to foot some cost.
Those of you who have watched to-day's presentation by Scarlett, must have been convinced adequately not to cooperate with any of the law firms by accepting their offer for being plaintiffs. It will be self defeating to do so. The company is on track and Imetelstat is doing well. Let the WS dogs keep barking because they will have to stop doing that and the suits will disappear automatically!!
Thanks, ETW. I was waiting for your summary, the only one on this board who always gives precise and complete assessment. My Flash player got stuck and will not for some reason get updated to required version and was frustrated not to be able to watch the presentation.
I wasn't expecting Skip to give any new information/data on the MF trial nor the timing for FDA lift up of the hold and expected this to be primarily in response to the threatened law suits and indirectly asking shareholders not to cooperate with the bloody law firms. I think he may have adequately convinced those in doubt. At least, I am!
Thanks for posting the summary so quickly after end of presentation.
Lobbies MUST be abolished from the face of this country!! But, alas, this Supreme Court won't allow that to happen!!!
Black, we all have been overspeculating. To get better clarity of what is ahead, we must wait at least till what Chip says to-morrow and what Dr.Tefferi says in the MPN forum on 12th. I personally think that Skip is giving to-morrow's presentation primarily in response to the litany of litigation actions taken by the law firms and kind of giving hope to institutional investors that the matter is not out of their hands and will be resolved. He simply can not give any more information on the Mayo trial than what Tefferi has announced so far; he is not authorized to do so. He will also be restricted to say any thing about when the FDA is likely to lift the hold because that too is none of his business!! Thus, all he can say is when and how Geron is going to submit its response to the FDA, if Geron has already done most of that work. A good and credible such response, that the Wall Street likes, will be the turning point for the SP move upward. If his statements are unclear,, which is also likely, the SP will just remain laggard. I will not expect any thing more or worse than that.
ptennis, thanks for the reply. I am also a long holder; but haven't suffered real loss as I haven't sold off (that saved me)!!
However, the action by FDA is incomprehensible to me and your argument that the personnel reviewing the ET-PV trials were completely unaware of the trial by Mayo and its success is unbelievable as it makes those guys ineligible to review!! Also, slamming a complete hold is a serious matter and the person who is the manager or supervisor of the team reviewing, plus the board of consultants, can't be ignorant of the Mayo's trial and will not allow the ignorant members of the team to proceed without their approval for such an action. I simply do not buy that argument.
On the other hand, I believe that there is some vested interest that may be influencing the action by the FDA and for which the person in the leadership must be held responsible for the action.
I guess next day in New York Times, Yellen or someone higher up at the Fed was quoted as stating that not all but only certain parties using the HFT are bad!! In other words, some crooks will never be stopped and the practice will continue!! Our systems are influenced by the power of money and only those evils that are clearly and publicly exposed are dealt with; but, the bigger culprits remain untouched, just like Pfizer-run trials do not run into problems like those run by small outfits like Geron!!!
Black, once again keep in mind that Chip[ is NOT the captain of the ship; he is just an executive who is responsible for day-to-day operation of the company and not the company policy matters, etc.. COB can fire the COE!! But, on the other hand, Chip can not fire the COB!! Who do you think then is the captain?
Looks like you are not aware of how the corporate system for such small companies work. For such small companies, Chairman (COB) is generally the Owner of the company and he hires COE to run the company under his general direction. If the COE doesn't perform or misbehaves, the Chairman just removes him!! If you understand this well, you will not see Chip as the captain and will not put the blame squarely on him!! Yes, he may have recommended to the board to give the MF trial to Mayo; but he could not have proceeded without the board's approval. Also, note that Huh was hired before Scarlett was hired. In my view, currently, Huh has more hold on the board than Chip. You should check the company charter to get more information about hierarchy.
I understand that Geron-sponsored trials are on hold, not Geron-supplied drug to trials by parties other than Geron!! If that's the case then even Mayo can not run its trial for patients already in!!
Black, please come out of your overly pessimistic view seeing Scarlett as the root cause of all that is happening to Geron!! Just be objective and see things in proper light, please! I understand that Scarlett may be a party to blame; but do not loose sight of the fact that the entire board, including Chairman Huh, may have to do more for the blame than just Scarlett. Yes, if Geron had ties with a big pharma, this complete hold may not have been imposed. However, it's also true that with ET-PV trials' 90%+ effectiveness and CRs and PRs in the Mayo trial may have led the Geron board not to look for partnership until Ph 3 as that would give the opportunity to squeeze the best deal, again in the best interest of Geron shareholders. Therefore, I, for one, will not in that case blame them for doing what they did.