I searched for any news w.r.t. the deal with Geron, especially the Janssen site and several of its divisions - nothing!! It's interesting to know that Janssen lists its R&D emphasis in the area of oncology. Any one having any knowledge about the deal being mentioned or discussed at Janssen?
I am actually a bit more comfortable holding GERN now because:
1. IMET is a golden egg and J&J is looking after it now.
2. Geron financing is all in its common shares and no other financial paper like preferred shares or bonds and such other commercial paper(s).
The second reason is important if you are just a common shareholder; i.e. Geron shares define the value of all Geron's assets (including the intellectual ones) and nothing else.
Yes, Geron's income from IMET revenue when it's commercialized will be shared by J&J and to that extent its real share value will be affected. But, if Geron was going to do it all the work without J&J, would the commercialization not have been delayed excessively and, consequently, creating risk of another competing drug coming into the market to beat it? And, wht about need for several offeringsresulting in substantial dilution of share value? Also, if the patent expires in 2025, how much loss of revenue would have been caused if the license is delayed by several quarters (or even years)? Therefore, I think we are better off with Janssen handling all work related to the trials, licensing and commercialization. I do not think bozos like Scarlett or Huh are good to do direct all that.
beaver, wasn't Merrill Lynch and two other WS firms the underwriters for the last offering? And, how many shares were given to these WS firms to underwrite? At that time (i.e., when the offering was issued), wasn't this J&J deal in progress? If so, what was the need for the offering?
If you ask yourself these questions and seek answers, you will perhaps get some idea about the huge short volume and who is behind all this!!! I am baffled and getting a bit confused. Of course, it's clear that while, on the technical side, the pull comes from J&J, Tefferi and perhaps the FDA that on the financial/security side, the pull must be from ML and those other WS dogs. It's intriguing to seek where the Geron management stands in all this!! What I mean is that there are two sides of the current situation with Geron, and not just one!!!
beaver, these WS guys take advantage of such news and paint it either bad or good, depending on how they want to manipulate traders, especially the mon...key traders. As a result, the SP is moved like a yo-yo. The MM is happy because more trade, better is his business! This mechanism aided by fast computers and private software developed by the institutional hedgies to make money for their rich clients is a fact of life in the modern-day market. We, as retail investors or traders, have no choice but to get in low and get out at high without being too greedy. For Geron, I think, I will remain a long-term investor at this point without worrying about daily swings and manipulation. I will remain so until IMET applications and fate of Geron as a company become clearly visible.
Ryan, when the IND is transferred fully to Janssen and other work related to other applications of IMET also goes to Janssen, the original deal with J&J should have been revised. Note that Geron still has the patent. How the rights are divided and how the financial terms are adjusted are unknown to us; say, still kept in secrecy!! Perhaps the deferment is a result of that revised deal. We simply should hope that the Geron board did not sell the deal cheaper at shareholders' disadvantage. Keeping in mind now 50%+ investment by institutions, it will be risky to do so, if so. These institutional guys may not take it easily. We retail investors have no clout and, hence, we just should wait with our hands folded. Of course, Scarlett and Huh already have pocketed hefty deals for themselves. It's up to the board to look out for shareholder interest and, I hope, it's doing its job. Medically, the transfer to Janssen is very good as I explained in my other posts on this board since yesterday.
Very evident to-day. These lazy bums will never give up their habit of making money without sweating!! God bless them when they can't digest all the money made through manipulation and lies!! They call themselves smart doing so; I call them societal cancer!!
Yes, greg, that is perhaps a very strong reason for the IND transfer to Janssen since IMET is now recognized to be an exceptional drug for oncologic applications including perhaps solid tumors in combination with other right drug(s). I will not be surprised to find IMET a part of standard chemo treatment for most cancers down the road!! An orphan status will allow oncologists to be able to try it for their patients suffering from other than MF or MDS. This will help expand benefits of the drug - a right step in that sense.
Yes, the 900+M dollar commitment from J&J!! Buddy, pose questions that are good, not baseless!! Of course, I am not Skip's great admirer; but, transparency is imposed not by just Skip, it must be the decision of the board. Too many posters on this board fail to understand what CEO's powers are and what of those of the board.
The question should be: What was the reason for the lack of openness? My answer is: This is a biotech business and certain matters need to be kept behind the door until the time is ripe. In the case of IND transfer to Janssen, apparently, there must have been heated exchanges among Geron board members, Janssen guys, Tefferi and even the FDA before it was determined that it should be Janssen which must take full charge of the multi-center trials and also the aftermath to advance IMET commercialization and potential faster and in a proper way. I bet this debate went on for several months and even Skip did not know just a couple of months back what was going to transpire. But, in the end, it is the right decision for the patients and the science as well as for shareholders; otherwise, with Geron in charge, the trial and the commercialization would have faced unwise delays and that would have been not in the interest of shareholders. Remember, the patent expires in 2025; i.e..in just 10 years from now and the trial must end fast and commercialization brought ASAP to rip rightful benefits. Geron with a staff of just 40 and management inexperienced in handling global multi-center trial of a BTD drug was clearly inept.
Yes, vey true. I too do not expect any BT status grant to the MF trial before enough progress is made in Ph 2; but, with Janssen now doing all of it, it should be attained much faster than had Geron be doing it. Tefferi's involvement must have this precondition OR Janssen wanted Tefferi on the team. Whatever it is, I think, IMET is now in the right hands and, if Geron board is wise to look for its shareholders interest, the change is better for us.
Do not forget that Geron still owns a lot of patents and did develop IMET, the BTD drug that brought history's first CRs and PRs for those dying cancer patients. Its Further development looks bright. Yes, those shareholders who held the shares since 90s have been frustrated and rightly so. But, that can't be true for those who became shareholders just a few years back. If those early holders keep their shares for a few more years, it may not be so bad. I think the company had IMET up its sleeve and decided to concentrate on it which resulted in expulsion of Okarma and bringing in Scarlett. Now that Scarlett's job is pretty much done, he will be given a decent severance package and let go. Stay tuned! My views, of course!!
You may not be able to double so soon because it will take time for institutional investors to see the light at the other end!! These guys may be still waiting to see what comes out of Ph 2 MF trial and weigh its benefits. Yes, you will have to be patient with Geron shares in your portfolio. My view, of course!!
Smiggy, you are wrong to judge such a company based on its past as you perceive it!! This is not a Sears or a Walmart!! I went into it a few years back and can see positive changes since then, although, I felt some times that the company had taken wrong steps, especially when it sold of the stem-cell assets cheap. Now, I see that they knew they had a gem in their hand which they wanted to concentrate on. I think it's been headed in the right direction now. If you do not like what you see, of course, step out to look for greener pastures elsewhere; but, sincerely, I am staying in!!
They did develop a BTD drug that brings about for the first time in the history CRs and PRs to dying cancer patients!! Not a small achievement!!! They may have a next one up their sleeve!!
Black, Geron must have something up its sleeve in terms of at least one exciting new product and Janssen will take advantage of its clinical-stage small-outfit organization to develop it to trial stage. I do not think a merger is in the wings soon!! For a company like J&J a few hundred million dollars saving you are talking about is out of consideration in view of a much bigger prize later!! Just do not dream about it!!! Be patient and watch what comes later. Scarlett may be out soon (because his million dollar plus is too much to oversee pure research work and a staff of only 21. The board will have to squeeze him out.
in my view, are apparent from the statements made by Scarlett to-day during the CC. Originally, we were told that the MF trial IND was transferred from Mayo to Geron; now, it is going to Janssen and, hence, Geron doesn't need to add to its staff and will shrink it down to 21. This change is a bit more time-consuming and, hence, the MF trial delay. Thus, Geron is practically out of the trial and Tefferi will be working with far-better hands than at Geron and the trial, once begun, will move much faster and more efficiently as Janssen is well-liked by the FDA. Geron, on the other hand, is to concentrate on further research for NEW products in the field of oncology (primarily in hematological applications but may go beyond) as Janssen takes over the MF/MDS trials and also work related to further applications of IMET. In simple words, IMET is being sold to Janssen and, if Geron succeeds in developing exciting new products (very likely in my view), Janssen may grab those too to develop those as commercial products!! In my view, thus, the stage is set for eventual merger with Janssen, meaning, down the road, we Geron shareholders will become J&J shareholders!!
All in all, I am excited with these developments because IMET is now in good hands and Scarlett may be shown the door out by the board (his job is done!!) to get someone more acceptable to Janssen and who is more apt for further research. (Would that Russian doctor who developed IMET be brought back?) Perhaps a right guy from Janssen may be the best candidate to replace Scarlett!!
I think this is best for the shareholders who want to hold the shares for a long-term investment. Of course, mon...key traders will be mad (who were looking for quick profits) and will selloff to-morrow! Shorts, primarily the hedge funds, will exit too, gradually. Buying opportunities for long-term investors are being created. -Huh may have to quit Any thoughts? Only serious responses, please!
Center, this board is flushed with vermin traders. Despite optimism expressed by Wotton, there will be vermin attack!! These are guys who were hoping for a partnership deal announced TO-DAY so that they can make some bucks. With no such deal, they are forced to be losers and will vent their frustration. Unfortunately, these vermin have flocked heavily in the market in search of easy money!!
Mon...keys can't digest significant news!! They are blind with their greed to make a quick buck. It's better they get out of Ocat so it has its ownership in better hands.