Note that this is only from myelofibrosis application as estimated by analysts. Add to that prospective application to other hematological conditions and whatever "tiny" value and future income coming from the stem-cell divestiture. My $10 assumption is, of course, thus conservative.
rj, I tend to agree in general with your assessment now. I am not sure though that all except Okarma benefited that much. It's possible that the then board wanted out from the stem-cells, let go Okarma, and pass it over that to him. That decision may have been encouraged successfully by Huh who may have successfully argued to the board that keeping the stem-cell portfolio meant getting bogged down in the unbearable expensive licensing and was risky with questinable guarantee for the success. He may have impressed them about the better course for developing Imetelstat application, instead. That may have made them to get Scarlett . This looks like the scenario to me. My frustration, then, is why didn't the board make it so clear to shareholders? What really was the need to do so, unless the shady deal with Okarma going to BioTime and take away the entire stem-cell portfolio for pennies on a dollar?!!
My optimism for the share-value rise considers FDA's new policy of accelerating licensing of "unmet" medica-need drugs, especially in the area of oncology, besides the fact that second cohort of 11 patients with tripled dosage frequency has already been taken up at the Mayo Clinic due to very encouraging results for the first cohort. The name Mayo Clinic has a solid influence at the FDA and at large pharmas world over. Therefore, the trial at and success at Mayo will be a big push for speeding up licensing and injection of interest at major pharmas. Geron management, holding themselves hundreds of thousands of the company shares by end of 2014 will try to get the best partnership or merger deal with a large pharma to realize success of their efforts. With the success of Imetelstat as indicated from what Scarlett presented, it will be very likely that interested big pharmas would pluge in a race for merger or partnership. Note also that Imetelstat then will be tried for wider oncological/hematological applications and that potential will lure big pharmas' interest even more. Thus, it will be wise for those holding Geron shares to keep holding and add more.
boxman, while I have been critical of Scarlett-Huh team, the statements by Scarlett during the shareholder meeting does reveal its confidence in the success of Imetelstat for myeloid/hematologic application. In my view, this time, Scarlett appears to be much more credible than at any time in the past. There is a good chance that Geron WILL see $10 value by end of 2014. That''s my view and you have your reasons to disagree which I will not object to.
As Scarlett pointed out during the shareholder meeting, the market for myelofibrosis is $800M annually. If, Imetelstat gets just half of that for say atleast 5 years (until an alternate is available), we are talking about the product being worth at least $2B. This can bring the share-value at least 10 times what it's now, isn't it?
I feel the same way as you do, eo. Kelsey, the British guy, was a disaster. and unfit to be the Chief MO. Did he misdirect the trials OR was he clueless?
Will Durrant stated, "One who knows what he knos and knows what he does not"!! You not only exhibit your idiocrisy but also your ego! God bless you if you ever succeed in your life sticking to those!!
Look, buddy. Get the background check on people whose advice you are inclined to follow. There are day traders who have short sight and there are investors (like Buffett?!) who have their sight set in the farther future. Which one you want to be?
If you are an investor, just buy and hold this stock and you may not regret holding due to the "unmet" medical need of the treatment ACTC is running trials on. Yes, the current cash balance is worrisome; but, they have that financing deal with Lincoln Park. If this financing is used prior to any major pharma partnership, some dilution should be expected. However, looking at promises of ACTC's products/research, it is also possible that a major pharma may begin showing interest prior to beginning of Ph III of the SMD/AMD trials. Also, note that the FDA is now accelerating trials for all unmet situations and this one is not going to be an exception especially due to its non-embryo destruction technique, proven saftey, and efficacy shown during the safety stage of the trials. This company has also other cards in its portfolio. Thus, it should be a good investment.
Opi, w.r.t. the monetary situation, Geron had $100M cash in 2012, now it's down to some $76M while only one trial going on!! Where did the money go? Geron's greedy managers Okarma-Huh and company squeezed millions in salary and bonuses for doing a lousy job!! At least, the folks at ACTC (Lanza and company) are not greedy and did come out with positive and remarkable products. No body knows Scarlett and Huh except Geron shareholders; Lanza is a famous and well-respected scientist. Also, Geron's management is crooked and not transparent at all; Gary Rabin has been much more open and straight forward. Geron now has only one product and has nothing else for the future. ACTC's portfolio is FULL!! What a difference between the two!
Of course not!! Too many trials like Geron; but, the Ph I results for AMD/SMD so far show no serious side effect and even show some efficacy! Aso, Lanza is no Okarma. The story looks similar but if you dig in deeper, it's very different and much more positive. Note also that to get Geron's differentiated cells the embryo was destroyed; to get ACTC's RPE cells or MS cells do not destroy it - a major difference!!
boxman, the company started shrinking after Barkas's death, especially after Huh beome the COB. The lie about many interested parties for the stem-cell during Greenwood time and later disappeared. If Okarma was let go with a promise to get the stem-cells at pennies a dollar, that may have been after Barkas died and Huh became the most influenetial person in the board. Generally, for a research outfit like Geron, the COB is more powerful than theCEO who is just an administrative chief whereas the policy matters are controlled by the board. Therefore, I am more inclined to place the blame onHuh than Scarlett. Okarma was never the COB; it was Barkas during his time.
Is it Okarma, Huh or Scarlett? Why?
My belief is that it's Huh who must be instrumental in killing first the stem-cell part and then knockwd down all onclogy programs except the MF for Imetelstat so far. Okarma was just a dreamer and built the programs on a collapsible deck of cards. Scarlett is just implementing what the board directs him to do. However, I may be off on my assertions.
Let us know your thoughts. Thanks.
I do not think we can get an honest answer to that question unless a few of us retail shareholders drag the management to the court for violation of shareholder rights!!
I too agree with Black's advice. And, consider investing some in American Graphite Technologies, Inc. (AGIN). Perhaps this company would let you recover some of your frustrating loss on Geron. I just can't place too much faith in the capacity and vision of the bozos at Geron.
It's you who is lunatic and hypocrite!! Just look at the original post''s subject: It is about them contacting us to vote!1 Why would the company seeking retail shareholders to vote, dummy!!
Taz, I voted to withhold for Huh. I think he is the one who may have screwed up Geron shareholders' long-term interest. He should be fired.
If ACTC's products/patents bring $6B in a sale of the company, $3 share price is reasonable. $26 requires the company's worth of $52B+ which is a far cry.