It baffles me as to why Scarlett_Kelsey and company branded Imetelstat failure for solid tumopr application last fall and caused that massive share-price slide!! I wonder if it was a deliberate action and, hence, a fraud or as Stifel's Klein argues the flawed trials plan by the mangement? What was Kelsey upto when he was privy to all the information when Scarlett openly stated the solid-tumor trials had failled? If I were to hold the power to change the company management, I will fire Scarlett, Kelsey and Huh and bring in more dynamic and mature replacement. None of them really is fit to run Geron. Instead of growing the company, they have managed to shrink it to dangerously low level. They have reduced once well-known outfit to one of the lame oncology research outfit. For what reasons?
No, I do not think they can short but it truly baffles me. Could that be a fraud to get the share price down so that scared retail shareholders selloff and vested interests grab the shares at cheap price?! What else can this apparently Wall-Street chasing greedy management have in mind?!! It's the one which told us that they had many "interested parties" for the stem-cell partnership (was it an outright lie?) and, yet, decided to sell it wholesale to West-Okarma team for peanuts!! If they were harboring overoptimism for Imetelstat then, it didn't show when they stated that the solid tumor trials had "failed" - a half truth?!!! Perhaps the fraud argument has some sense.
You can see the charts and read conclusion w.r.t. this randomized study under Presentations on the Geron website. It's clear from the data that Imetelstat is effective in improving PFS for short-telomere NSCLC. The company is now looking at expanding this study to other solid tumors with short telomeres which I think should conclude similarly.
One question bothers me is that why didn't the management begin its original FDA trial for solid tumors, which they announced to have "failed" causing a massive share-price slide last Fall, specifically for short-telomere tumors? Stfel analyst Klein then is right in concluding that the management plans for trials were flawed. And, yet, they get hefty raises and bonuses!! What an ethic!!
Black, I have not been paying attention to EXEL for the last few weeks. But I suggest you read an article by a Seeking Alpha author that appeared about a week or two ago (Check in Yahoo Business under EXEL). It's a pretty comprehensive study, unusal for being on Seeking Alpha!! Its Cabo has future, no doubt, but it has to go through some huredles. And, I do not like M. Morrissey, the CEO, who reeminds me of Huh at Geron in greed and stupidity!!
I think it's purely trader-driven activity in absence of any news or silence from the company. I do not think long-holders are selling. Just be patient till next Spring and sit tight!
This started some time before Obama; but, yes the trend you pictured is true. The doctors are selling practices to hospitals because insurance companies reimburse hospitals much more than to private practitioners for the same service!! And, the hospital-group service quality is far worse than private practitioners'! When I called my insurance company about this, the first guy didn't know the reason!! The other guy stated that it's because the hiospitals have higher costs than private doctors for the same service and, thereofore, they get reimbursed more!! The reimbursement is not based on quality of service but based on what the projected cost of service is!! This practice began after HMOs came into existence and MBAs started running our medical system taken away from doctors!! Clearly, the culprits are lawyers and MBAs, not doctors!!! It's not just Obama; it's our bloody entire body of legislators who created this mess!! This country is no longer for the people, by the people and of the people; it's for the rich, by the rich and of the rich!!! If you are not wealthy, your legislator ignores you because you can't give him a lot of money to get him reelected!! And, you know, why it costs so much to win an election? It's bloody the TV advertising!! Media executives are behind all this political corruption!!Get it right buddy!!!
boxman, My post was for the situation on April 8th when suddenly the slide reversed, apparently, without any obvious reason. And, hence my inquiry for any ideas as to why! I do not disagree with you about the low-volume rise.
With to-day's announcement of SCLC test data presentation at AACR conference emphasizing short-telomere cases (which was not announced through AACR conf. papers earlier) it has steadied at the current level. However, there must have been some people who had advanced knowledge of the forthcoming presentation and were the buyers as it looks NOW. I get the right answer to my querry on April 8 now!! The word must have been allowed to leak which we were not privy to!! That's Huh-Scarlett style!!
I have to add more: There is no body like ACTC's Dr. Lanza at Geron, who is widely respected and, alongwith his assistants, are persistence in their goal unlike anybody at Geron. Rabin also is much more transparent than the tight-lipped and coward members of Geron management. Thus, for all the reasons I stated above, I consider investment in ACTC to be better than in Geron. Of course, this is my view and you can do your own study to guide you further.
I am also increasingly uneasy; but, holding on because there is still value left if you keep in mind the potential success in the hematological applications, $94M cash in hand, no debt, 150-some patents, and still incomplete stem-cell deal. I think Huh screwed up (deliberately?!) and Scarlett is a short-sight and had placed too much faith in Imetelstat. When you look at the effort that is being spent all over the globe on finding car cures, it appears to me that the company should have concentrated on its telomere-telomerase concept and worked deeper into it instead of stupidly hanging on to the Imetelstat. That shows the naivety of also the borad members. None in this board, nor does Huh or scarlett, have any standing in the oncology field and are a non-factor, unlike Dr. Lanza at ACTC, and we are actually stuck with these two bozos, including another non-factor bozo Kelsey (from "home")!!
He appears to be intersted only in preserving his ties with the Geron board at no personal financial loss! Afterall, he is a New Yorker, isn't it?!!!
Last night, I looked at all abstracts and prsentations at the on-going AACR annual meeting and I found nothing except one with respect to the SCLC trial which is already a known fact that it did not work except perhaps with short telomeres. However, some of the important presentations/articles by well-known researches have pointed out importance and need for teleomeer-length based relationship/inquiry, suggesting that Geron's original philosophy of targetting telomeres and telomerase is gaining importance and its patent for measuring telomere length is a valuable asset. Nothing else!! I do not think traders have that in mind (too complicated for them)!!
carl0s, Scarlett and Huh both are basically medical professionals and my family and friend-circle are full of medical professionals. Therefore, I know what ethics and social service means tio them in general. In fact, they are taught ethics in the medical school and, I belive, that is also a requiremet for getting the board license to practice medicine. Ethics is NOT an unknown animal to them like for modern-day Wall Street executives!! Where is that sense in either of the two when they each asked for a million-dollar remuneration from a comopany which is hard-pressed for cash and that cash could have been used to do a lot in the on-going trials!! What example does it set for staff scientists and technicians who have toiled for years in the company trying to find the product called Imetelstat?!
gosmoke, it came from its HESC program that studied telomeres and its functions in the past. But, the drug itself is not an HESC product and Geron is no longer in need of any pluripotent or differentiated stem-cells that are obtained from the HESCs to be called a stem-cell company. This is what I meant and truly that makes it a non-stem-cell company, unlike ACTC.
What bothers me about Scarlett and Huh is that both sold the companies they owned or were partners of and must have a lot of money to squeez any cash compensation from Geron at this time when the company is hard-pressed for cash, especially if both have decided to steer the comopany out of trouble. This clearly demonstrates their lack of sincerity and, in my opinion, greed for money (whether they agree or not). I remember that the exCEO of Citi Bank Pandit decided to take only a token dollar in salary and benefits after the company faced serious financial cruch after the 2008 crisis until he was able to put the bank on an even keel. Of course, hardly any current-day CEOs are expected to do this. But, both Scarlett and Huh belong to the medical profession and these professionals have much more sense of ethics than the current-day executive class. I am really saddened see that these two have forgotten their profession's normal sense of social duty and have gone after greed for money.
One thing you point out is right: Geron is no longer a stem-cell company in its ongoing activity. Imetelstat is basically a chemical that is not developed from stem-cells or HESCs although it affects inhibition of CSCs. Thus, the company studies effects on stem-cells but doesn't use stemcells for any product anymore. There is a lot of prevailing ignorance about this not only on this board but a lot of crummy Wall Street writers and, of course, half-educated traders. You can't educate all these people. Just know it and ignore what they say.
Yes, you're right. I wish other insiders, like Huh, Kelsey and Behr should have also added some at market price!! That hasn't happened yet!!