You should really learn something about retail before you short the stocks. Abercrombie doesn't "make" anything. They source. I've shopped there for 15 years and never found anything made in America. Abercrombie sells (or sold) VERY high quality garments made in Sri Lanka, pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam.
Abercrombie has the best quality garments in spec retail. They were always the cheapest because they didn't wear out. There was a brief time after 911 when sourcing was an issue and quality for everybody got worse because some source nations couldn't get anything into the US.
As I said before, Abercrombie probably doesn't want you as a customer. They want people that are willing to pay more for product that's better. The average American is a slob. They want piles of stuff for free. They are too undisciplined to understand that gorging is bad. They take out home euity loans to buy flat screen TV's. They wolf down slob food. Retailers have to lie to them, because being honest leads to bankruptcy.
The actual cost of a pair of jeans is dependent on a number of things. First, which store they sell in. Internatonal margins are double US and ANF margins are higher than Hollister.
One thing that;s usually not factored in to Abercrombies "cost" is they are VERY agressive as an innovator. As much as we may dislike Jefferies, it's hard to believe anybodies gonna out work the guy. Rhuel, Gilly, Hollister and International were HUGE endeavors. Like quarterbacking in the NFL, if you think it's so easy, you do it.
During the depression, my grandfather manufactured high end furniture. He sold to Buffalo's elite. My mothers didn't even know there was a depression. If Abercrombie can accelarate their store closings, and concentrate on cites and international, they should be able, on 3.5 bn or so in sales, to generate between $4-5 a share in EPS by fiscal 2014.
The article I read said that. Certain cities, like Boston are booming. I think it has to do with the industrial base. Now might be a good time to buy property in detroit.
There was another article about it today. Young people want no part of their parents suburban life. People forget why people moved to the suburbs. To get away from blacks. Nobody will admt this publicly. But today, the high cost of driving, the absurd cost of suburban life, and the crushing boredom of suburbia is driving them to cities.
One can only wonder how the other spec retailers will adjust to this. Abercrombie has been making this move for years now.
My two favorite "brands" in the world are Ralph Lauren Clothes and Barton and Guestier wines. They combine high quality, commitment to being consistent and truly incredible marketing.
RL makes you feel good about buying their stuff. For years this was ANF. That's where the brand needs to be. IMO, they need to shed hollister. A Wellesley grad, female CEO with a brain would do wonders at ANF.
The Apple brand isn't good because people liked Jobs, it was good because they sold superior poducts. Nobody wanted Rhuel or Gilly's poducts. Go into any Hollister and the theme is "so what?"
IMO, Jefferies grunged the brand.
This is an absurd comment. Abercrombie's two latest experiments, Rhuel and Gilly ended in total closures. If Jefferies made the brand the store would be called jefferies. The brand is the name.
ANF needs a stylish 20 something FEMALE ceo. The time is high
Not sure anybody can really qualtify that. Gas is down 14 cents year on year. Gnerally gas use corresponds to job creation. People have to be going somewhere and to work is a biggie.
Where I live job creation has been extremely strong. Also, increased gas use is coming in during non vacation months. The August - October drop off didn't happen.
All in all, it's a tough call.
This can be seen nin very strong gasoline consumption. After 5 years of free fall, 2013 gaoline consumption is up about 8%. Also, one of America's biggest industries, oil refining, is running flat out. A few other areas are also doing well, most ntaobly, high end universities. Foreign enrollment is exploding with the weak dollar.
The down side is, the "markets" cannot withstand the double whammy of a decling trade deficit and rising interest rates. A significant rise in GDP could cause the markets to unravel.
ANF has a market cap 1/4th that of luulemons. The right buyer could easily justify 60-70, but would they have to? The market clearly doesn't think ANF can make money. Like I said many times, ANF is a small cap, in turns of share number. In todays market, it's all about what index your in.
If ANF has a good Feb eps number, and the market is still up, this stock could eaisly go to $100. All they'd have to make is $3, or $250 million net. That's hardly reaching for the stars.
They manufacture their equipment in China and flat screen displays in apan, two countries likely to bee at war within 5 years. It's likely most of their technology was already stolen by China, They don't own their manufacturing processes and their technology is inferior to Andriod.
They have 150 bn in assets, mostly overpriced stocks and bonds sitting in some hard drive in the carribbean and to even touch those, shareholders are going to file a class action lawsuit.
AAPL is just another Nasdaq ponzi stock. Great to trade, but in the long haul, probably not worth much.
Nobody seems to notice in the hype, that with 6 less shopping days between black friday and Christmas and the stock market at record highs, the black friday should have been one for the ages.
Studies also show when the economy slows, rich people cut spending more than poor people.
Lastly, Obama care is turning out to be an even bigger disaster than anyone imagined. I have a friend who needs a colonoscopy. The operation is about $10,000. His out of pocket for 2014 will be 7,000 for the insurance, 3,000 for the deductible and 3500 for the 50% co pay to the limit. He's going to pay 13,500 for a $10,000 operation.
These plans are going to monkey hammer the economy and people who are signing up are going to cut the )(*& out of spending.
We haven't really had a President since Reagan. We've had an endless supply of palm greasers. Reagan hated Bush, justifiably.
Hahahaha... As usual, it's Reagan fault. ederal law forbidded Air traffic controllers from striking. They were siubject to the arbitration rules. So, not liking laws, they simply broke them. PATCO wanted to blackmail America. Reagan stopped them, which is why he wwas reelected. You're funny.
As Rus Napier said, 2014 will be a year of deflation. The current debt cycle is over, regardless of how much money grandma yellen likes to print. The 2014 elections are going to be violent, just as they are in Turkey, Ukraine, Egypt, Thailand and a dozen other "democracies".
There is now no question that the three Amigo's Ried, Pelosi and Obama have effectively destroyed the middle class. There is real fear among health care economists that 2014 will be a disaster. 80 million people will lose theior heath insurance and be forced into government programs whose costs will explode. As many as 60 million more will be forced into Medicaid, a system that is already broke.
Many Americans, due to high premiums and absurd deductibles will be literally unable to get into hospitals, standing in long lines behind drug addicts, slobs, men who practice lude sex and hypocindriacs. A government program of health insurance will be eventually tailored to lobby groups.
Even though health care will crush the middle class, energy will be worse. Led by a cadre of total idiots, America now has squandered 6 years in idiotic renewables plans. Natural gas at $4 /100cu ft, the lowest in 10 years, in not competitive. The natural gas transport sector is collapsing. Shale gas is all but dead, and energy companies are just now starting to take massive losses on it's shale plays. At $94 for WTI, it takes 7 years to beak even on a shale oil play.
That said, industry insiders, of which I am one, know that much of what's put in production reports is pure bunk. Most miscible gas is being reinjected into oil wells. Haynesville is a disaster.