I thought the Q1 earnings was good (good core earnings and reversal of the incentive fees) and bought some shares back. Wish I had bought more.
I thought the win rate for May was poor (had to happen sometime, but still not good) and agree with market maker that they didn't seem gung ho to me on the buyback on the call. Given the huge stock increase, I think it decreases the attractiveness and likelihood of buyback, so I sold my shares -- not that compelling of a value to me at these levels.
IMO, the increase in share price is not the buyback. Yes maybe it is someone buying in anticipation of the buyback, but if is just that I think there will be disappointment I thus see no real reason for the price increase over the past few days.
I will grant that marketmaker and I have been totally off on the share price and you have been 100% correct. That being said, I still agree with a fair amount of marketmaker's logic, although his approach is too incendiary for my tastes.