I think if we can make or break 8.6 million ebitda next Tuesday we could rally up past $5.50 going into sept....
if we miss...we could go lower.....
the rest is already baked in......Can McKay and Hogland deliver...I think they can.
Jonesey...don't go getting yourself all excited....FVE is a part of the russel index....so when it sells off guess what..... what happening here is FVE is now about 10 days from reporting Q2...yes we're expecting some one time items again.... But hopefully some decent EBITDA ..anywhere above 8.6 would be very decent in my option... Don't worry about the white noise....this is not Apple vs Samsun....this is a real estate play first and foremost..... With a hint of operational value....it's not that hard to figure out what our true value is.
Gold is crashing....Oil is crashing...u.s dollar continues to strengthen......Fve should hit some decent EBITDA numbers on Q2..Q3....I like our position here.
in my world the sky is blue and sun rises in the east and sets in the west......And with a host of Republicans led by Trump and Jep...I'd say Hilary and Obama care look solid for another two terms going forward...Healthcare and anything related SNF ect....should certainly perform we'll for the next cycle or two.
It will be interesting when RMR actually starts trading on the NYSE ....and a perspectus is filled .
I have a fealing by then five star will be privatized.... Portney will now begin his exit strategy.
like I said....give Portney 300 million and unlock 2.5 billion in FVE and SNH is a no brainer....Pay the devil and well all get rewarded......Portney has an exit strategy...he got his first 160 million...he s next pay day is on the way...and so is ours.
joneses..I warned you about taking a double hit off your crack pipe without taking a break....your two dollar scenario is full of manure......FVE has 31 owned facilities with a replacement cost of probably 900 million and 5 years to construct...these are prime facilities...many ,many upgrades to memory care...Fve operates over 200 facilities and own outright close to 3000 units.... Get real son... We have a game changer...
U.S real estate continues to drive forward.....I don't see many road blocks in front of us hitting $7.50 by year end.......
way to much momentum working in our favour....as the wheels are at work to unlock our Value
Investment App.....I liked your article as a general reference....The housing tailwinds should continue support the seniors housing sector as a whole alone with demographic support of the baby boomers and the present silent generation...most of the greatest generation are almost all gone....New seniors housing construction along with absorption numbers continue to play in our favour...relatively low.
Brookdale the largest.public senior housing operator will eventually convert to REIT and spin it's management operations....as did sunrise seniors a few years back.....I believe Portney is setting up SNH and FVE the same way......With his new formation shareholders will get a look at all the operational metrics of RMR...Yes shareholders we're held up by Portney ....but as Portney gets his cash out....the market should reward shareholderrs with a higher than present metric..
Jonesey, why do you keep hangin around...hoping to find a few crumbs...why don't you debate Arthur Williams....he.s the guy that doubled his position to 5%. Why would a private seniors housing firm take up his only position into Fve.....that's what you should be debating....not weather we get a .20c correction in the stock price..sheshhh boy...I don't mean to keep whipping on you...but give me some insights on your though structure...Portney this..Portney that... The world knows all about the Portney factor....Let's taalk about the Brookdale factor..what happens when it converts and FVE becomes the biggest operator ?How much of a bump comes with that....nobody reads Seeking alpha...the was no no Fve bump....Q2 and Q3 should show very decent ebitda numbers.....and FVE is way discounted so it's an easy buy and hold for now.
Could mean something is in the works......
Some type of merger would put FVE in a Reit conversion ..or spin-off situation...
our discount would almost instantly evaporate.....
Big #$%$ volume and price spike to close the week... some Multi-Nationals buying up a few hundred thousand at market price..scopping what they can.... can you smell what the market is cookin jonesey.
I think FVE..or SNH will take a run at private firm Seniors Star... They have about 12 owned communities in IL.AL, and Memory Care....
They could become a patch over to five star seniors... so obviously Auther Willams is setting himself up for a seat on the board.... This guys knows senior housing..and obviously thinks FVE is a great deal at these prices.
Does.nt take any other position in any other other company..just FVE...ever...one company...more than interesting
Its funny this guy doubles his initial position from his first buy in "2006"...never ever sold a share...then just recently doubles his holding to 5%......... This guy is wild... Either portney is going to buy him out...or Thomas is buying FVE... big private owner buys shares...and basicly says when the time is right we ll close a deal.
William F. Thomas. Doing a quick search, he is the owners and operator of a competing senior housing chain called Senior Star with ~3k units. There is also potential that William Thomas could potentially make a bid to purchase FVE's owned 3064 units to help unlock its value. Less
"back up the truck jonesey".... enougn of you red thumbs down..LOL we know its you !
I think the artical is conservative in its multipul discount...its more like 400% discount compared to its peers...either ways it looks like the bottom is in....
DASHBOARDSHome Macro View Investing Ideas Portfolio Strategy INSIGHT CENTERSAlt Investing Dividend Investing Earnings Center ETF Hub Income Investing MY ACCOUNTEmail Settings PREMIUMPremium AuthorsMost Popular Newest PROTop Ideas First Look Idea Filter My Authors
Portfolio News Articles StockTalk Marketplace PRO To screen ETFs by asset class, performance, yield and more, check out the ETF Hub. ETF Hub
Subscribe to our daily Investing Ideas email for our best long and short ideas and new IPOs.xUser 7131201My FeedInbox (1)ProfileWrite Instablog PostSettingsSign Out
Go to inbox for more notifications
Long/short equity, value, hedge fund analyst
Profile| Send Message| xAuthor Following Options: Learn more» Follow this author See their articles on your Seeking Alpha homepage and in your feed. Real-time alerts on this authorGet their new articles emailed to you as they are published. Daily digest on all my authors Get all your favorite authors’ new articles emailed to you in one daily digest.Follow(2 followers)
The Long Case For Five Star Quality Care - 100% Base Case Upside Must Read | Jun. 24, 2015 8:49 AM ET | About: Five Star Quality Care, Inc. (FVE), Includes: BKD, CSU by: Investment Apprentice
Subscribers to SA PRO had an early look at this article. Learn more about PRO »
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
•Five Star Quality Care (FVE) is a senior housing operator of ~30k senior housing units (beds) - including 3000 owned units.
•Owned assets is worth 50-115% premium over current stock price.
•Industry tailwinds of 8% population (demand) growth an
For my Hard Catalyst, I believe there is a strong possibly for current shareholders to launch a public campaign against FVE. There is significant unrest at the shareholder level. For the 2013 proxy, substantial voters either voted against or abstain from voting. The 2014 proxy (recently) was better, but still above average unrest. Also, there is an activist investor Osmium Capital, who owns ~5% of the company's shares as well. Osmium recently waged a campaign against Rosetta Stone (TICKER: RST) and has successfully put the company into a sale process. It feels like there is an opportunity for them to do the same with FVE.
Secondly, there is a large 5% shareholder named William F. Thomas. Doing a quick search, he is the owners and operator of a competing senior housing chain called Senior Star with ~3k units. There is also potential that William Thomas could potentially make a bid to purchase FVE's owned 3064 units to help unlock its value.
says even in bankrupcy FVE is worth 50-115% up-side from its current price... WOW
also nore two possible senarios for take out..
1) activist hedge fund has now taken a 5% position
2) large private senors housing player has taken a 5% position...
A joint venture of Health Care REIT and closely held Revera Inc. offered C$12 a share for Regal, one of Canada’s largest senior-housing owners, according to a statement from the companies Thursday. The bid is 27 percent more than Regal’s closing share price on Wednesday. All directors of Toronto-based Regal agreed to the transaction, which is set to close by the end of 2015, according to the statement.
Regal shares rose 28 percent to C$12.07 at 10:05 a.m. in Toronto, the most since the company had its initial public offering in October 2012.
Health-care real estate investment trusts have been expanding their senior-housing operations in North America as demand for the properties increases with the aging population. Toledo, Ohio-based Health Care REIT acquired Canada’s HealthLease Properties REIT for C$950 million in 2014.
Regal owns 23 private-pay retirement communities with more than 3,600 suites, primarily located in Ontario.