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Teekay Tankers Ltd. Message Board

msnapp82 225 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Oct 7, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Into the 1's today?

    by alwayshoping 20 hours ago
    msnapp82 msnapp82 12 hours ago Flag

    I'm all for a bold plan. Vicon couldn't muster one, too many relationships to protect. New CEO is much more aligned with IQ 's mindset than Vicon's as far as meeting the current/future market, as opposed to the legacy market.

    Both companies needed to cull the headcount and keep the best. I'm glad to see the make up of the new Board. I think more than a few people are relieved that certain folks are gone.

    I do not doubt the CEO's ability to identify what the market wants. I think he excels in this area. However I do question whether the company has the resources to keep alive long enough to make a difference. And I think Vicon needs to be viewed as more than a wall mounted security cam company.

  • I strongly suspect that TNK will trade at or below these levels for a while. And I suspect earnings will be a trouble spot as they try to talk away one time expenses which will produce a loss.

    Certainly the love stuck longs don't want to hear this, but it's pretty clear that I've been accurate with respect to TNK's direction. Is TNK going to $8 by year end? Of course not. Depending on oil prices, this thing may see the 2's before it ever sees 4. I think oil will remain in the 90's, but if Brent goes into the high 80's and WTI the low 80's, TNK will get nailed because it will imply demand isn't there.

    This is the problem with proprietary research such as that pumped out by Quantuon. He can wax on about ship utilization, but if oil demand falls - and it's falling sharply right now - ships are not in demand, period.

  • This thing may be a buy in the lower 3's. Troubling to see in the investor day presentation slides that they need 10,500 to breakeven on CAD (cash available for distribution). As most TNK longs are aware, TNK pay a dividend below CAD, thus if they breakeven on CAD it means no dividend, or use cash to fund a dividend.

    There have been many days in September when Afra rates were not at breakeven, some days well below. Not good if sailing in the spot market.

    Maybe a buy at the 3.35 range, but if so, I'd be a seller at 3.55-3.60

  • Reply to

    Into the 1's today?

    by alwayshoping 20 hours ago
    msnapp82 msnapp82 16 hours ago Flag

    mitch get real. The CEO's options are just paper, and if he goes to sell them it will send a bad signal and tank the price. There is zero chance a powerpoint presentation juices the stock to $6.

    The CEO first has to stop the bleeding, this will take two quarters if he is successful. While he is trying to keep the company alive, he needs to find buyers for the cameras. Once the company is stabilized (a big if), then he can work on his open systems approach. I applaud his way of thinking, open systems are the only way to go. But he doesn't have time on his side. Both companies were losing money, and this makes prospective customers nervous because they don't want to buy a camera from a company whose phone lines might get disconnected when it runs out of cash.

  • Reply to

    I got filled 10,000 shares today at $2.12 average

    by cnlg1000 Sep 30, 2014 3:10 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 16 hours ago Flag

    it's refreshing to see someone who understands how things work. This stock is not liquid, and price swings are large when a seller wants out.

    Other than two people with an unnatural attraction to the CEO (or one person using two names), there is no interest in Vicon. It's essentially an illiquid private company. There are a bunch of IQinvision shareholders dumping their stock and the lack of liquidity is pushing the shares down.

    Will the restructuring plan do anything to the share price? No, why should it, wall street won't touch this company so whose going to buy shares?

    Vicon shareholders are in for rough 6 months. If the CEO plays it safe and tries to keep feelings from getting hurt, the company will simply run out of cash - they don't have any more real estate to sell.

    I think he would have been a good for IQinvision way back when, but when IQ's first CEO didn't pan out, the company was in such a bad way they couldn't pay for a new CEO. He will fit well on the IQinvision side, but saving Vicon will be a major challenge as Vicon has a different corporate culture. I wish him luck.

  • Reply to

    Only down 11% today.

    by alwayshoping Sep 30, 2014 4:04 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    Most stocka trading under 5 are pigs. Most stocks trading under 3 stay there, or they cease to exist. What yo've got now is 9 million shares hoping for a recovery. It's not impossible, but turning around a company is no small feat.

    Now to satisfy those that need good news ... the board of directors has been reconfigured. Gone are severallifetime board members who offered nothing and treated their Board seat as a paid hobby, and were in some ways counter productive because they either lacked the spine to make a bold move, or their presence made Board itself an unpleasant group.

    The newly formed Board has some good, straightforward thinkers. They may be able to influence the direction of the company.

  • Reply to

    Investor Day

    by kosmiccharly Sep 30, 2014 10:12 AM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    someone didn't like it at the close. Maybe some doubts during the break out session?

  • Reply to

    I got filled 10,000 shares today at $2.12 average

    by cnlg1000 Sep 30, 2014 3:10 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    insane to drop 20K into this company. If you want to play in the market, buy FB or AAPL

  • Reply to

    Ford Equity Research Upgrades VII to HOLD

    by mitchpit11 Sep 29, 2014 8:48 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    these statements are often written by the PR people, they are basically fill in the blank sound bites. Do you expect them to say anything different?

  • Reply to

    Ford Equity Research Upgrades VII to HOLD

    by mitchpit11 Sep 29, 2014 8:48 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    I remember reading his comments regarding why sales were down across all regions and he couldn't figure out why. Apologies if this was an earnings report statement as opposed to a conf call transcript, I tend to read both types with regularity.

  • Reply to

    VII vs GPRO and DGLY

    by who_gnu_1235 Sep 30, 2014 2:30 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 3:08 PM Flag

    You are correct. But inside the plastic/metal, it's just a camera and not all that different than the cameras inside a variety of devices.

    The market is rewarding wearables - GoPro for consumer purposes, DGLY has a police/military market.

    No reason why VII can't produce a wearable, but time is not on their side.

  • Reply to

    Ford Equity Research Upgrades VII to HOLD

    by mitchpit11 Sep 29, 2014 8:48 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    mitch you are overly sensitive. I would like to see Vicon hit it out of the park, OK? However, they are an industry that is stacked against them, and this is not a unique opinion. Have you been following any of the trade publications?

    Both companies were performing poorly, we know that. Vicon was worse off, sales were falling off in every region, Darby sounded dejected at the con calls.

    Regarding anything positive: IQinvision makes a good camera. The company will be nimble, more so that a giant like Canon. Vicon had/had channels not open to IQinvision. Satisfied?

    The odds are stacked against Vicon, sorry this upsets you. Are you mad at the market as well? The 10% down in one day market? At present the market is telling you what it thinks. Can Vicon prove the market wrong? Sure, but from a probability view, it has very tough odds.

  • Reply to

    Who's Selling

    by ben.grein Sep 25, 2014 9:59 AM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    Whomever it is might be surprised on October 10.

  • Reply to

    Ford Equity Research Upgrades VII to HOLD

    by mitchpit11 Sep 29, 2014 8:48 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    you're aware analysts are often wrong, right? Maybe a productive google search for you. They have no clue, indeed they are forbidden from access to any data unavailable to the general public, via Regulation FD

    On August 15, 2000, the SEC adopted Regulation FD to address the selective disclosure of information by publicly traded companies and other issuers. Regulation FD provides that when an issuer discloses material nonpublic information to certain individuals or entities—generally, securities market professionals, such as stock analysts, or holders of the issuer's securities who may well trade on the basis of the information—the issuer must make public disclosure of that information. In this way, the new rule aims to promote the full and fair disclosure.

  • Reply to

    Over 50 million in revenue?

    by alwayshoping Sep 30, 2014 11:43 AM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    Is anyone who doesn't cheerlead a scaremonger? How about looking at the reality of the situation.

    Let's not use biotech as an example. Biotech firms have pipelines, trials, and hope to hit a home run. Vicon sells cameras that are difficult to distinguish from those made by Panasonic of whomever.

    Of course the new CEO wants profitability, it protects his employment and his options. The previous CEOs wanted the same thing, yet it eluded them. Why is that?

    As far as a rebound on a restructuring plan, get real. Very few people are watching the company, if VICON disappeared tomorrow the market would not notice, there are plenty of camera suppliers out there.

    The Vicon web site is the same old junk - cinder block basement image with wall mounted screens? Yea., that's cutting edge stuff.

    Is Vicon a gamble? Huge gamble, which is why there is no interest in the shares. I'm surprised anyone is actually buying. I have nothing against the new CEO, but the fact of the matter is Vicon is a very tiny company competing in a crowded space. There was a time when IQinvision had a bright future, but they missed the mother of all opportunities and had to restructure management. Small companies cannot afford to be out of the market and experiencing management turmoil, they don't have deep enough resources to weather the storm.

    I've watched companies fail, my guess is Vicon will fail but I would like to see it succeed.

  • Reply to

    DOWN AGAIN

    by alwayshoping Sep 30, 2014 9:56 AM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    There was no scam. Vicon used to trade 100-500 shares per day, it was not a liquid stock, thus the share price back then is irrelevant.

    Vicon surged on the DGLY euphoria, day traders mistakenly thought Vicon was in the same sector. When it became apparent they were not, the air came out of the balloon. Add to this a bunch of IQinvision shares hit the market, and people holding worthless paper decided to accept, literally, pennies on the dollar.

    You are fixated on the added revenue but you fail to see that IQinvision was operating at a loss. What's better? 10 bucks in annual revenue and net income of 1 dollar, or 20 million in annual revenue and a net loss?

    Revenue means nothing if it creates a loss.

  • Reply to

    Over 50 million in revenue?

    by alwayshoping Sep 30, 2014 11:43 AM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    What is so wrong? What was GM's revenue before it went bankrupt? It's not revenue that matters, it's net income. Neither company was profitable.

  • Reply to

    divy gave away all their cash

    by who_gnu_1235 Sep 29, 2014 3:37 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    yes, you are correct, but the merger and the terms were controlled by the large stakeholders and there's nothing that could have prevented it because they held the votes.

    In my view, neither company was going to survive, both were running at a net loss. A merger was the only chance, but the people who cobbled together the merger padded their pockets.

    Regarding the intense pressure for profitability, again correct. Q3 will be poor, and Q3/Q4 will be loaded with severance expenses. Vicon has no following, no coverage. It's basically a startup with a stock symbol.

    For this reason the new CEO will need to cut all expenses to the bone, something Vicon couldn't do because Vicon was being run like a family business. IQinvision was already running as lean as possible. IQ cut to the bone when the previous CEO tanked the company. It survived, but it never really recovered.

    All the while, ridiculously simple camera companies such as digital ally and gopro saw massive share price gains.

  • Reply to

    Investor Day

    by kosmiccharly Sep 30, 2014 10:12 AM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    It was indeed. Quantuon was in the corner, repeating incessantly "double by year end, double by year end". The Deutch analyst asked about the MPG for the ships, and whether hybrids and/or Tesla was a competitive threat (TNK reminded him he no longer covers the automotive sector, he was reassigned on September 1st). He said OK, and downgraded TNK to market perform.

  • Reply to

    Investor Day

    by kosmiccharly Sep 30, 2014 10:12 AM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Sep 30, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    I was there ... it was me, pb_harris, and the nativeamerican guy. pb_harris got lost , for some reason he thought it was being held at the local Phillip 66. Nativeamercan guy came wearing a full head dress, which looked kind of scary, and kind of village-people.

    TNK put up some really nice slides, and talked about the order book. Nativeamerican slammed down a few cokes, and said "I'm in!".

    On the way out, I saw your babe. You guessed it ... bellied up at the bar with a pitcher of Bud Lite (credit due for watching calories).

    All in all, a great presentation.

TNK
3.58-0.15(-4.02%)Oct 1 4:05 PMEDT

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