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Teekay Tankers Ltd. Message Board

msnapp82 227 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 3, 2015 1:30 PM Member since: Oct 7, 2010
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  • Reply to

    If oil keeps dropping.........

    by divikmi Jan 2, 2015 8:46 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Jan 3, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    Certainly possible, but not likely when you consider that KMI does not earn revenue based on the price of oil, but rather on the amount of oil and other products which flow through their pipelines. If for example you feel the price of oil might spur more consumption of gasoline, then a decline in the price of oil is not a negative event for KMI.

    Apparently much if the industry tends to agree that the price of oil is not a grave concern for KMI, as KMI is sitting atop a backlog of 18 billion in planned expansion. And that's as of late 2014. You can expect more projects coming forward.

    Last, it went without much notice, but on December 31 the USA more or less opened up the crude export market. All it takes is marginally processed crude to qualify for export. No only does KMI own the pipelines that will bring that crude to the mini refiners, KMI owns the tankers that can ship that slightly refined product.

  • Reply to

    Sure is strange

    by alwayshoping Jan 2, 2015 4:22 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Jan 3, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    straight4 - I have never found book value to be of any use, the exception being those companies with assets that exceed book value (i.e., real estate). In most cases, book value is meaningless and the assets are in reality worth less than book.

    More important to Vicon in my view is restoring the revenue they once had. Vicon slipped into a spiral revenue wise, but the customers are still there. It's a matter of getting those customers engaged again, with new offerings and a new business model.

    The old Vicon was proprietary and oddly, they felt it was a good thing. The new CEO has demolished that mindset and is focusing on open source. The CEO's insistence on open source, and his open market purchases, are a clear signal he is changing the company from top to bottom and willing to risk his own capital. Had someone come in and said "business as usual" I think Vicon would have failed. They might still fail, but it won't be for lack of trying, the guy they got is exactly the type of person they needed at the top.

    The old Vicon had leadership but was stuck in a bad business model, and IQinVision had very little in terms of true leadership but had some excellent products.

    Over the years I've invested in some small companies, and it's not a stretch to think of Vicon trading in the teens if the company can push the revenue higher. 100 million would be a good goal, for now. If I'm not mistaken, the combined companies had revenue of 50 million. If Vicon can re-engage their existing client base, that annual revenue can ramp quickly, because the customers are already there, they just need a reason to buy.

  • msnapp82 msnapp82 Dec 10, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    You are only considering consumers in North America. Asia is a large and growing consumer market.

  • msnapp82 msnapp82 Dec 10, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    You are not looking the big picture ruby, FB is wildly popular in Asia, younger set.

  • msnapp82 msnapp82 Nov 21, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    Hard to know ... Fullerton was on the west coast. However he made a veiled reference to Vicon being headquartered in New York. Now the NY headquarters is being sold. Will it be leased back? Will new NY space be leased? Or is Vicon moving out to the west coast?

    Chesnutt was based in California. If for example Vicon wanted him in NY, I can see why he'd depart ... not worth the move.

  • Reply to

    No trades????

    by jomar2298 Nov 19, 2014 10:28 AM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Nov 19, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    If you look back several months, there were days when Vicon traded 500 shares for the day. It's not followed by anyone. One of the jobs of the CEO will be to get people to know the company exists.

  • msnapp82 msnapp82 Nov 19, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    3.5M to the bottom line only if they had no debt on the building. More interesting to me is the prospect of a location change, because most if not all of the employees will not move across the country.

    Thus either they will be finding a new location in NY, or effectively terminating the majority of the NY workforce if the company moves to the West Coast.

  • Reply to

    Disappointing

    by msnapp82 Nov 12, 2014 12:06 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Nov 13, 2014 9:55 PM Flag

    Perhaps seek help for paranoia as well.

  • Reply to

    Disappointing

    by msnapp82 Nov 12, 2014 12:06 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Nov 13, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    Feeling just a bit angry? There are books, and support groups to help you. Regarding NVGS, yes indeed it was going well. But when crude began its freefall, it took NVGS as well as several other energy names down with it.

    NVGS is disappointing because it's a case of tossing the baby with the bath water. I can see why the crude shippers are performing poorly, there's more than enough crude sloshing around in the world, and the demand just isn't there. But as we all know, NVGS runs a specialized fleet, and what it ships is not crude but rather chilled liquids. With the USA being the low cost producer for such liquids, I would have expected NVGS to weather this storm.

    I hope you get the help you need.

  • Reply to

    Disappointing

    by msnapp82 Nov 12, 2014 12:06 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Nov 12, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    Not so sure it's wise to buy anything energy related until crude finds a bottom. NVGS has lost more than 25% since the Summer, the trend will continue as long as crude keeps falling.

  • msnapp82 by msnapp82 Nov 12, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    to see this company in the cellar. Specialized ships, contracts in place, yet no attention from a market focused on crude prices.

  • Reply to

    Vicon CEO comments on plans

    by munnaisonline Nov 10, 2014 10:20 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Nov 11, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    So far so good. IQinVision was a ridiculously long tongue twisting name. It because the company first tried to make the cameras "smart" such as sensing customer movements, etc. It never worked. As fas as Vicon, very few companies can survive on "proprietary", because it shuns innovation. Systems need to be as open as possible, and invite improvements.

    I'm happy to see the new CEO identify and toss the flaws in the previous management. I hope there's time to save this company.

  • Reply to

    Why is this stock up so much today?

    by last2cents Oct 16, 2014 12:37 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Oct 16, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    damage control of what? This little tanker company is a day traders dream, but pointless to play with it when there are so many other high quality companies on sale at the moment.

  • Reply to

    Why is this stock up so much today?

    by last2cents Oct 16, 2014 12:37 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Oct 16, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    positive comments by a competitor regarding spot rates and bunker fuel prices

  • Reply to

    MsnApp2

    by munnaisonline Oct 10, 2014 1:21 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Oct 11, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    There is no way I can predict that.

  • msnapp82 msnapp82 Oct 9, 2014 7:02 PM Flag

    "TNK is guaranteed the lion's share. " Bald lie, unless Canada nationalizes the pipeline as well as TNK.

  • Reply to

    Historical Lows

    by jomar2298 Oct 9, 2014 2:00 PM
    msnapp82 msnapp82 Oct 9, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    jomar, vicon's sales were declining. Once a customer is lost, is very hard to get them back. As far as future outlook, people severely underestimate how long it takes to get a product out. The new CEO is software driven, that too is a difficult process. And you've got a huge amount of shares currently locked up and looking to get out with 50 cents on the dollar.

  • msnapp82 msnapp82 Oct 9, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    Complete b.s., nice try old timer. Pipeline is in theory only, would have to meet with approval on many fronts. Try 4-5 years at best. TNK's debt issue comes due before then, and no guarantee TNK would load oil regardless, the cargo goes to the best price, period.

  • msnapp82 msnapp82 Oct 9, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    revenues are pointless if the company is losing money. You can sell a lot of lemonade at 50 cents, but if it cost 60 cents to make/sell it, soon there is no more money. Both IQ and Vicon were losing money, it was all reported and plain as day. Yet people bought Vicon thinking they had a magic product? Not even close. Vicon was severely dysfunctional, anyone who watched Vicon over the past year or so could see this. Sales were declining across ALL regions, and the CEO stated he "didn't know why". Good grief. IQ too was losing money, their CEO had cut staff back to bare bones. IQ got rocked when the previous CEO made a fatal error, and they had to go into survival mode. Give them credit for holding on as long as they did.

    The merger was a last gasp move, IQ had no other offer. The original IQ investors demanded more for their shares than originally offered, and long term Vicon shareholders wanted that special dividend. Hindsight is 20/20, but buying Vicon just to grab the 55 cent dividend, and then selling out, was the best play.

    What you will see now is a bunch of IQ shareholders cutting their losses. The only thing which can stop the fall is if the sellers dry up. Anybody buying for the future is throwing away cash, as Vicon is fighting for its life.

  • msnapp82 msnapp82 Oct 9, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    They can't increase the dividend, they do not have the cash to do it. TNK is moving the majority of their fleet into the spot market, but the demand for ships is on the decline as the price of Brent plunges. A month ago people were wondering if Brent might possibly go below $100. Then $98 was a critical support. Now it's falling below $90, which is stunning. Even the contango plays got stung. Good for the gas pump, but the world economies are retracting. Look at TNK's history, and what happened the last time crude plunged. Bear in mind TNK was collecting revenue on previously negotiated fixed charters.

    This sector is sick, all shippers are suffering. The longs refuse to admit it, but TNK has a huge debt problem looming, and the longer rates and crude demand stays low, them more at risk TNK becomes.

    Next earning report will look so ugly, the headline number will disappoint due to a large amount of the fleet being in drydock - that was never modeled in prior.

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