You clowns amaze me.
You can't see the forest for the trees?
I don't care what he opined about GTAT, even if he was right.
The point was today I discovered he's not an energy specialist!!
Up till today, I had no idea he was a generalist. Did you?
I praise the Bernstien report and point out Pavel's shortcomings and you guys howl?
All Pavel has done for 6 years is been wrong;
All Pavel has written about IOC is a regurgitation of what was fed him by IOC.
He hasn't had an original thought as long as I can remember.
His opinions have been DEAQD WRONG for 6 years.
Today, I discovered why.
An analysyts' credibility isn't important to you?
Beveredge took the time to research IOC and write something intelligent .
Big difference between a report issued by the likes of Beveredge vs Pavel, IMO.
We'll see if Beveredge turns out to be right, but Pavel has been a hack.
Now I know why.
And you morons object to that conclusion?
(Yeah, I MUST be a short.)
Pavel was opining in CNBC's Fast Money today, not on IOC but on Apple parts supplier , GT Advanced Tech ( GTAT).
Why do I mention this, you ask?
Well, if Pavel is the Raymond James expert on GTAT, a tech co., how can he also be the "'expert" on energy co's like IOC?
Reminds me of the proverb "Jack Of All Trades, Master Of None".
Makes me question the other 'historical" IOC analysts: are they generalists or energy analysts?
Conclusion: re read Beveredge's report; he is obviously an energy analyst.
Easy there fella !!
Are you guaranteeing my investments?
Will you reimburse me if you're wrong?
Message board hyperbole can be dangerous to ones wealth.
You've been very informative and sure of ACHN; don't damage your credibility with outrageous message board claims.
PS: I hope you're right but there is still risk, lot's of risk.
Good point, Raise.
However, I am in the camp that says we'll have mixed or questionable results: eg a la Triceratopos or Wahoo**
I NEVER posited or implied that there will be DRY holes.
My comment was and is "No news is NOT good news".
All signs point to them NOT having another ANT.
** PPS dropped after Wahoo news. Market viewed Wahoo as "not good news".
I do not recall post Triceratopos reaction.
Note; I am in the camp that believes ANY incremental finds, even if nominal like Triceratops ( .3 tcf) will be good news , IN THE LONG TERM, in as much as such incremental finds will solidify Total's commitment to build a two train plant. Getting IOC's resources up to and over 8 tcf will justify a two train 20 year 4 mtpa plant, the generally accepted minimum for two trains.
Success with appraisal drilling at ANT, proving up more than 8 tcf, will accomplish the same.
GCA numbers are the current foundation for Total's plans, not GLJ
My position is neutral in the short term but I fully agree with the conclusions of the Bernstien report.
That is why I choose to sell puts now while waiting for a reason to get back into the shares.
Great drilling results would certainly do that.
In the meantime, I see no reason to be long the stock ( ties up capital, unnecessarily)
Mindless drivel "evil idiot" : everyone who dares point out any problems MUST be a short.
PPS never declines because of bad news, lack of news or fundamentals; its always the shorts fault.
"What is there to complain about"
Earlier I stated I agree with you that Hession has implemented and executed on his plan. I re affirm that statement.
However, we will need to agree to disagree on Hession's setting of expectations.
EG.: Last November he set up shareholders for the huge Dec 6th disappointment with his promises of a 'transformational deal due before year end. PPS climbed from about $75 on Nov 14th to mid $90 based on his statements.
Hession has been touting the huge potential of the drilling program. Thus, when spudding of WB &R commenced in early March, AND Hession indicated results by end of June, this set up investors AGAIN. PPS climbed from low $50's in Feb to high $60';s in early June.
eg#3: Phil hinted Triceratops was bigger than Antelope.
Hession is now hinting ANT Deep is bigger than ANT.
Re your comment that you believe mgm't is not lying, well maybe they're not lying but they certainly are guilty of setting unreasonable expectations. Their hyperbole is not much different than Phil's. Their results, neither.
I repeat my ( boring and "negative Nancy") opinion:
"No news is NOT good news".
It is just my opinion, use or flush but history has borne me out.
I first posted such refrain BEFORE Wahoo results were announced.
Adding to my 5 years of frustration: what has Hession done for the pps since taking over?
I am certainly willing to accept Phil's failures as my "sunk costs" but Hession hasn't done anything to create market credibility nor pps enhancement.
Yes, "we wait" and yes, current mgm';t has not yet given us reason to doubt their public statements.
And, as Raise stated, they ARE executing their plan.
My cynicism is evident and if over bearing, it is the result of 5 years of frustrations with numerous changing of goal posts and "waiting".
The "carrot" is what keeps me interested and involved.
I DO find it curious that people are now stating they are long, long term holders and that all of a sudden drilling results don't matter to them. It certainly was very important last spring. It's as if they've resigned themselves to having to wait years instead of months for gratification.
You are entitled to your conclusion.
However , I'm not short the stock; I'm short puts. I'm making money while we wait. I see no reason to be wildly bullish right now. I was wildly bullish prior to Dec 6th. Was clearly disappointed with the deal. IOC has disappointed more than they have rewarded. I've become very cynical of anything promised by IOC.
Read my post today responding to Raiseyou regarding shifting timelines and the ever changing "carrots".
Cynicism or negativity doesn';t equate to being a short.
I just have 5 years+ plus of IOC disappointments as my experience.
Regarding the current drilling: do you really not question why 180 days of drilling has resulted in no news? This doesn't give you any concern? It passes the smell test?
Others will disagree but in my 40 years of investing I have concluded that "No news is NOT good news".
If you go back and check, I posted a thread "No news is NOT good news" BEFORE Wahoo results were announced.
I believe this is also true for B & R.
Good post with good advice, as usual Raise.
The only point I would clarify is your "next week " ( I understand you didn't mean it literally).
Tempers are flaring not because of the 'next week" failures but "'next month", "90 days", " next year" , in " 5 years " failures .
Long term IOC believers are clearly frustrated and angry.
Kenny is further irritating them with his constant promises ( and shifting timelines).
I first entered IOC in 2009 when production was forecast for 2014.
Now it is 2021, at the earliest.
The shifting of timelines is what is driving the level of frustrations.
Another is the "carrot" that is promised. but somehow never seems to be realized ( eg the current carrot is WBR)
In 2009, GLJ 's tcf's were approx. 8 ( I'm guessing here, so bear with me) . IOC hinted that total tcf at E/A would prove at 15+.
Years ago, Triceratops was hinted as being bigger that Ant.
Well, guess what? We are at 7 tcf. , five years later.
The carrot is what has kept us excited and in the game.
Now the carrot is ANT Deep ( for which we'll get peanuts upfront).
The carrot has turned out to be a bad tasting onion.
I know, "soon, soon , soon" .
Well "soon" failures ( or your "we wait"), is causing tempers to flare.
We've been waiting for 5 years.
The carrot is so big and could be so rewarding that we stick around as 'we wait".
Are you still dreaming of pps at $400?
Sorry if I bust your bubble.
TRy the Ignore button; it will reduce your frustration.
pps: the pps is confirming what I have been saying.
Bad news can be delayed with "gobbly #$%$ " pronouncements such as "we need additional core testing, "we're drilling some side tracks", "we're encountering high pressure", we' "need additional drill stem testing " , etc.
Remember Triceratops and the nonsense regarding needing additional drill stem equipment?
I don't think these will be dry holes; just not another Antelope.
Probably more like Triceratops: mediocre.
Sorry if I wasn't clear.
Hope I'm wrong but 180 days + drilling and no results "smells fishy".
They're not drilling to China. LOL
I'm expecting some sort of damage control announcement.
Kudos to Hession for managing to keep a very tight lid on drilling results.
It is really surprising that no news is leaking considering all the consultants, oil workers and other independent contractors working on the WBR projects.
Remember the "good ole days" when Phil and IOC actually provided interim results all the way down the drill hole?
Sure has changed the volatility, for the better.
Should be an explosive day when Hession releases results ( one way or the other).
Meanwhile, I am waiting, still holding my short puts.
Will pull the trigger on any downturn; which I expect if either B or R are dry holes; which I also expect (one or both).
Despite tight lid, I just can not believe Hession could/can hold back any "good" news .
Too many people would know if they had hit something meaningful..
pps is flat to down, options are not signaling any major good news.
Hession';s claim that they have not penetrated cap rock just doesn't make sense.
Have they slowed down drilling, ON PURPOSE? ( To thwart Oil Search's 6 month options, expiring mid Sept. ?).
Just doesn't make sense that drilling is going so slow.
Look at the back of your shirt: it says "Punch, me, I'm a moron"
It also doesn't help wearing a "Dairy Queen" ball cap.
Look in the mirror for additional signs.