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Winthrop Realty Trust Message Board

mss256 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 14, 2015 6:01 PM Member since: Oct 4, 1999
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    My own theory for the drop in share price

    by mss256 Jan 9, 2015 10:07 AM
    mss256 mss256 Jan 14, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    Still Main continues to decline while O and Oak and even PDLI (a questionably run biotech BDC) continue to rise. I believe Main is well run or I wouldn't be in it. But like I said, the "Houston" address may hurting the stock price more than is warranted. If that's the case, this is definitely a temporary downturn and it will reverse itself once the market figures that out.

  • Main Street Capital's offices are located in Houston. A lot of oil business in Houston. A look at the portfolio company's on their website doesn't show a lot of exposure to oil, but it would take a lot of time to find out the extent to which their portfolio companies are exposed and to what extent. More than I or probably anyone outside the company might have. Even inside the company, I imagine it could be a huge drain on resources to even a rough calculation of the exposure.

    That said, investors generally like a little more certainty than a BDC like Main Street Capital can offer, so I doubt there's a lot of buying. I have a very small position and the company is still paying dividends every month and I pick up more shares every month through my DRIP. Time will tell if I'm picking them up on the cheap or if I should have gotten out. I wouldn't put new money into MAIN.

    I am, however, rotating some money into Oaktree Capital (OAK). They've done pretty poorly over the past year because their business model is to wait for opportunities presented by downturns like the current oil shock.

    Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mss256 mss256 Nov 13, 2014 12:49 PM Flag

    If there's any comparison in RIM 2009 to AAPL, it would be AAPL 1995. Too caught up in its own underwear to realize that they were making all the wrong strategic moves, jumping on new bandwagons too late and with the wrong strategy and watching market share slip to irrelevance.

  • I was either dumb or lucky enough to buy Apple in 1997; not a lot of shares, but that $1300 investment paid for a wedding, a bat mitzvah and some unexpected medical bills, with some shares to spare.

    Blackberry now, like Apple then, has a fanatically loyal user base (I'm not talking about crackberry addicts, but guys in the data centers that care about security and device management), a smart and focused CEO (John Chen is no Steve Jobs, but he doesn't have to be; he just has to be John Chen.) and a willingness to invest and build on core technologies (Apple's Carplay runs on QNX, licensed from BBRY). And while I wouldn't want to own a Passport phone, personally, I'm glad I own a company that didn't just launch another iPhone/Android clone, but created a unique product that people can love... that weird Bondi Blue first generation iMac comes to mind.

    As a bonus, BBRY is Canadian, not American. That will count for a lot in overseas markets where perception is that the NSA gets inside American company networks. (If they do, they probably get inside BBRY networks, too, but perception is everything.)

    I write financial advertising so I meet a lot of people who laugh at me when I tell them now's the time to buy Blackberry. I'm pretty sure I'll have the last laugh. BBRY doesn't have to be the next AAPL to double or triple from here in the next few years.

    I don't post a lot so don't expect me to come back here and defend this premise. But there's a lot of fodder here to consider.

    Good luck to all! Longs and shorts alike.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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