Check out this
Two articles here. "A new look for Apple" is good
except for a negative comment from some nobody named
Rhinelander. Rob Morse's article is excellent. I originally
read both of these in Sunday's San Francisco
Chronicle. You've got to be deaf not to hear Apple's
triumphant comeback. Next week should be great. I anticipate
more good news some advertising...who knows what
This afternoon I plan on visiting the San Bruno
CompUSA and the Palo Alto Fry's.
I am one of those first time buyers.
Bought at the on-line store you recommended some time
ago and got the 32 meg upgrade for free. My daughter,
whose in second grade, will be the primary user of this
fast and great looking machine.
There was a
short, but good review of the imac in the latest issue
of Playboy-in the technology section. I only read it
for the great articles!
I am hoping for a good
week (stock wise). I think the buz about the impending
imac release should get alot of peoples
Motorola reported earnings or $6 million or $.01
per share, which beat estimates of a loss of $.04,
before special charges. This could be good news for the
I think the only surpise that will significantly
bring the price up for Apple will be another early
earnings report by Jobs. Earnings will beat estimates
significantly (thanks Eric).
Jobs needs to attract
attention now, with the imacs coming out next month, it
would be a hell of a kick-off.
The Disney both
thing is probably just marketing for their Web
We'll know in a few hours.
Good luck to
Sorry for the late response, I can't
get out of the firewall at
work so I only post at
night. My comment about lack of G3s at
CompUSA was meant to be GOOD news. Lack of inventory
(barring production problems) is great. That means that
are probably selling everything they produce.
No returns, no
I was a
little dissapointed with yesterdays dip, without any
I'm feeling much better about Apple
today. The stock made a
great come back. And there
is good news out there. Check out
the SI board,
or follow these:
>But the tide could
be turning once again. GT Interactive
Corp., a major reseller of Macintosh software,
reported Tuesday that *sales of Apple consumer software
more than doubled in the first
Here's a good LA Times article on the
Things could get worse before they get better,
for Apple but for the whole technology
Without any news AND the stock down, our friends are back
to clog up this board with baseless negative
I guesse the next good news will probably come out
or the 3rd quarter report. Both due
out in July.
I have a feeling that Apple's
sales are up for the month (but
can't verify this).
Not much inventory at my local Compusa.
intelligent thoughts out there?
For Apple to be in compliance with
generally accepted accounting
principles they WOULD have
to count current advertising costs
current earnings. It's part of the matching
I've heard of companies that capitalize marketing
it's an aggressive and hard to defend
The accrued marketing account that you mentioned is
probably a liability account and represents marketing
expense incured but not paid, for the quarter.
for advertising expense in general. I think
advertising should never be a drag on earnings if the ads are
The purpose of advertising is to spur sales, if they
change advertising campaigne or advertising
I personnally think that the new
steamroller ads are good.
Heck, I liked the dali lama,
think different ads!
First V.P. Mandich(sp) said that they would sell 300k G3s, then the Board of Directors think Jobs should stay as long as he wants and the the label "interim" is a non-issue.
Both of these events occurred at the end of the quarter. Do you think that there is much chance that the numbers come in at or below consensus?
Mandich would not have made his positive statement either to protect the company from lawsuites or to maintain a low profile until 2nd quarter blows over. And why would the board let Jobs continue unless sales were great. If things were just okay, you'd expect to see some posturing like "we are continuing to look for a permanent candidate..."
My bet is at least $.40 this quarter. No scientific calculations to share just what I've gleened off this board and my own spin.
I responded to two of his messages as I was furiously catching up with this board.
Then I read where he posted Eric's address and made some half-assed threat.
His name should have given me a clue.
"...Microsoft has no class..."
His voice cracked alittle when he said it. And you could see
When he came back I invested because, as I said, his passion would bring the company back.
I put an order in for 20 April 30 contracts at 7/16s. I did not think they went through as they were trading at 1/2 and Apple was up for the day. Got the mail on Saturday and my confirmations were there.
Not much time left on these, but they were cheap. Earnings are out the day before expiration. Interesting how many people are still down on this stock. I am betting that we'll have a huge earnings surprise along the lines of Eric's predictions. I think we may see higher.
Good luck to us both,
Sorry but I was not able to respond sonner. Interesting that I was not able to buy more because the limit price was never reached - the stock went UP 3/8. Hard to predict the market. Any way here is url for the clipped and the full message:
3/25/98 News on AAPL's 2Q sales e-mailed by Gavin Young
Please post the following onto SI's Apple board.
Apple had a Macintosh Business Expo in Portland, OR yesterday. The event is covered in "The Oregonian" newspaper of Wednesday , March 25, 1998. Some quotes from it are:
The company that built the personal computer is trying to rebuild itself - and counting on a nation that likes happy endings to cheer for its success. "Assuming we can continue to be economically viable - that is, profitable - (consumer) confidence comes back relatively quickly," said Mitch Mandich, Apple Computer Inc.'s senior vice president for global sales. "This country loves a comeback."
(Mitch) Mandich said the company is on track this quarter to sell more than 300,000 of its new, ultrafast G3 computers - and that's more than double its G3 sales last quarter.
Mandich said Apple will focus on the consumer and small-business market for new customers. It has dropped prices on its older G3 mchines, which were launched last year.
Mandich said Dell Computers is the example to follow. Dell turns over its inventory 30 to 40 times a year. Last quarter,
Apple's inventory turned 12 times. Apple wants its inventory to turn over 25 times by year-end, Mandich said. Mandich said he is
urging Jobs to stay. "What Steve is wrestling with," Mandich said, "is how to balance his life, more than anything else" among
Apple, his family and Pixar, his company known for the "Toy Story" movie. "Once he reconciles how he can manage all three of those,
he'll be in a better position to commit."
Gavin Young .
end of e-mail
Tommorow morning apple will be down a couple of points at least. Rejoice! this presents a great buying opportunity. I believe that Adobes problems have to do more with their competition than apples sales. We know that apple is selling well this quarter. I got the following quote off of the SI board:
"...(Mitch) Mandich said the company is on track this quarter to sell more than 300,000 of its new, ultrafast G3 computers - and that's more than double its G3 sales last quarter..."
This is a direct quote from the Oregonian dated April 25th. The second quarter is over so Mandich, who's senior v.p. is stating fact. If there was any doubt about bad earnings, we would not here a peep out of any apple senior officers. This is called signaling. It's not so much what was said but the fact that he even hinted that things are good.
We need apple shorters. We should be glad there are lots out there. If they are shorting the stock doesn't it make the price more attractive to us? And don't we get an extra hit when they are forced to cover?
A poster on the SI board claims that 2nd quarter results will be $100 to 150 million. I think this averages out to $.60 per share. I'm not doing the math. He states that he's about 80% sure and credits this to very strong sales of the G3.
I usually don't listen to rumors. Especially the ones we get on this board that are in all CAPS!!! He did not offer much to support his contention but it got me to thinking...
Jobs estimated 300 to 350 thousand units for the quarter. Steve's no slouch and would not make a prediction that was in excess of capacity. But many of the G3s are out of stock and are on back order. Is this true? I know they are doing that build to order thing on the web page so we need to focus on retail or CompUSA sales. I hear that Newtons and Emates are flying off the shelf since the announcement that they were being phased out.
I've heard the negative side to product shortages. But could this be a good sign. I'm assuming that they did not have any manufacturing bottle-necks.
As emily mentioned Apple has gone from a "has been" to a "once troubled" company in the press, in a few months. By July they could have serious market share. Jobs gets on the cover of Time or Newsweek and Bam we're all rich.
While patience is a good quality of a stockholder. It is not
a good trait for a option holder.
Good rumors work for me!
side note: I was reading the many good posts today at work. Good BLS's from emily and vic and commentary from all. But what
I thought was hilarious was the idiodic pronouncements of doom from heimer/wannabe and then as the stock rose he had a meltdown as several posters tore into him and reality set in!
Actually this guy was one of Apples original employees. He did the PBS series "Revenge of the Nerds," which I liked alot.
I read the article and am very disturbed by it. I even printed it out to re-read.
It's not easy for me to discount Cringely's article. I don't know where he got the 2% market share number.
Couple of minor irritants I would like to share with my apple
investor brethern. I don't post much because I have a job. But
I do read all of the posts on this board...
1. Today while driving home I was listening to a nightly business radio show on PBS. A commentator started talking about
Apple - nothing offensive just old regurgitated crap. Then BAM!
He says something like "Apple sacrificed the emate just to save its computer business that has less than 3% of the market..." I
almost hit the car in front of me. Apple's market share was never less than 3% percent!
2. Tonight I was reading a piece on the web. It was written by Jim Davis of Cnet called "Columbus bold move by Apple." I'm reading this article with absolutely no content when I read "While its star fades in its traditional computing business, Apple will graft a bold new strategy on its continuing attempt to ward off the Microsoft-Intel onslaught." Star fades? Didn't he see Jobs' demo?
Needless to say, todays posts describing the Seybold event were the best news of the day.
I said apple might close at 25+ this week, and like all good analysts when faced with a bad guess, I'm raising my week end estimate to 30+. Unless of course it closes lower.
This is a fun stock.
Notice that the animals only come out on bad days.