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Penn West Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

mswanson45 54 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Nov 18, 2007
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  • for the Iran decision. Sounds like the Oil Storage problem may not materialize. Insiders starting to buy so maybe in 2-3 months we can expect to see light at the end of the tunnel.

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 20 hours ago Flag

    My guess is that they won't reach a deal - 2 reasons. First, they don't want to appear to be weak to their countrymen by agreeing too easly. Second, it will buy Iran more time to finish their nuclear weapon work before the contract deals expose the facts that they don't tend to comply.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Low oil prices to come

    by rhulman Mar 29, 2015 9:24 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 30, 2015 8:31 AM Flag

    Low was $4.83/s in March 3, 2009 which was at the point of complete Financial System meltdown. If the financial system collapsed which is it was very close to collapsing, then the price of oil and the stocks could have gone to zero.

    We are in a manufactured downcycle, the price cannot be sustained at these levels and everyone knows it. The Saudi's are waiting for the pain to get bad enough for everyone to come back to the table and negoiate real production limits which they all abide too.

    These prices are low - overlay the stock price vs oil prices for the last 30 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Low oil prices to come

    by rhulman Mar 29, 2015 9:24 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 29, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    You have Brokerage firms on both sides of the trade and they publish what is beneficial to their positions. Oil may go down as perception drives reality, but look at what is going on in the middle east right now - complete breakdown of the region. At some point, the Saudi's are going to have to wake up and realize that their market share in the US is going to drop and may be gone until the shale boom plays out. The Saudi's and OPEC may also be asking themselves is a 60% cut in oil price worth the 10% reduction in their production. If they want to continue on this self destruction path, then we may see lower oil prices. If the Saudi's and other OPEC members can mutually agree to a production cut, then they all win.

    Right now I would say the middle east is in its worst position it has been in the last 50 years and why the price of oil hasn't reflected that risk is baffling.

    Stock prices for the Oil and Gas companies are on sale at 75-80% discounts to what they were during "normal" economic periods. If the middle east falls apart - I want to be a buyer at these prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    quite the pump and dump scam going on here

    by stocksarerigged Mar 26, 2015 11:59 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 26, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    Definitely - I know some of our other message board members blast him - but I think he is taking advantage of a crisis and we will come out further ahead when the saudi's finally realize that the production levels are only hurting their bottomline

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    quite the pump and dump scam going on here

    by stocksarerigged Mar 26, 2015 11:59 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 26, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    this is SFY's normal daily pattern - it goes up, then collapses, then climbs back up; and somtimes it even closes in the Green. If you are long - sell on the jumps, buy back in; and repeat.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 24, 2015 5:50 PM Flag

    No it's not - options awarded and options exercised are free (given to employee by the company as part of their compensation package and vest over a period of 4-5yrs). The employee gets the difference between the current market price and the awarded strike price.

  • Reply to

    SFY shares on sale

    by buyamericantrucks Mar 24, 2015 12:46 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 24, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Everything in the store is 80% off. Even the short sellers agree with the move from 50% shorted to 35% shorted. Don't be the last short selling bag holder. Get your Swift shares now while they are on sale and flying off the shelves.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ask yourself Why shorts are covering?

    by halap5 Jan 13, 2015 2:31 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 22, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    Short interest reached near 50% in the December timeframe which was at the peak velicity of Negative Press on Oil dropping to $20bbl and the OPEC Decision to keep their production capacity as-is.

    We are now seeing that second drop in prices, but the price of oil seems to be settling out, the June OPEC Meeting is approaching, drilling rigs have dropped signficantly, and CAPEX budgets have been significantly reduced.

    Short Sellers made their money - a lot of it. At this level Bears make money and Hogs get slaughered. This is the Hog Level. The Shorts are using the high price volatility to cover without driving the price up too quickly. My guess is that opportunity is now moving to the upside and they know it. The horizon for gains is in the next 12-18 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 18, 2015 8:07 PM Flag

    Appreciate your response. I forgot about the Fed meeting today. I was surprised by the effect their decision had on the dollar and how that rippled into the price of oil. I agree that the quick rise may be followed by a quick drop. With Options Expiring on Friday, it should an interesting week. Screw the shorts - I really hope they get hurt - I'm down - I want them out for the count. take care

  • Huge turnaround, I bought a chuck at about 2.00 and was starting to regret it last night. So #$%$ Happened, Why the run up with all of the horrible news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 15, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    to spx and marpark,

    I feel that Cramer is 90% on target, but I think for the short term oil and stock prices are going to continue to go down with oversupply possibly hitting the storage limits.

    I feel the chicken little mentality is running rampant for the next couple of weeks, so I may sell and put some cash on the sidelines and see if there is a lower entry point or if things trend up, then slowly buy back in.

    But I agree, the 12M secondary issuance of stock and the fact that it sold out, is vote of confidence that the market may be poised for a rebound (in the second half of this year, and 2016).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I'm not in SFY at the moment = most of my cash is GDP and SD which have not been stellar but they haven't tanked as much as SFY in the same period.

    Here is my question - we have a lot of very smart people who have oversight to the oil arcage - what the F is going on. As a non-oil northern, I see their Feb Presentation hasn't materially changed - there has been no new one way or the other on the company, the price of oil is stagnating around 48-49bbl for the last couple of weeks, so what gives..

    The only thing I can guess is that company is short on cash, contractual commitments for drilling or terminating drilling is hitting them, and they don't have any significant NG or oil hedges to buffer them, so they are running out cash.

    Great assests, no market, tough position. I'm a hold - I have a small amout of shares in my 401 or now a 101.25 after the hair cut.

    Amu comments.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Interesting how SD is trading like its going BK

    by mswanson45 Mar 6, 2015 3:42 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 6, 2015 9:43 PM Flag

    Did you hear their average price per bbl for 2015.

  • Reply to

    Interesting how SD is trading like its going BK

    by mswanson45 Mar 6, 2015 3:42 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 6, 2015 8:55 PM Flag

    Iwill - you are wrong. Go listen to the Conference call. They are hedged through 2015 at an average price of 83-87 bbl (based on my memory). They have a lesser % of their production hedged in 2016 which is when they will take it in the shorts/pants if the prices don't improve. Read the presentation- there are hedges and 3-way collars for most of their production- the collars are averaging around $76 and the other is at 90.

  • Well its not - they are almost fully hedged at $83-87bbl oil and +$4 for NG for all of 2015. And less hedged in 2016. Point being, they are beating analyst earnings forecasts Quarter over Quarter. They will not be faced with a revenue short fall situation until Q1/2016.

    A lot can and will happen with the price of oil and NG between now and then. Until then, the pricing is all fear/panic/skyfalling trading. In reality - their revenues and earnings will continue to be the same for the remainder of the year.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SD predicted to sink like a rock???

    by dafitz62 Mar 5, 2015 4:07 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 5, 2015 6:35 PM Flag

    I bet your right - Cramer has a bunch of Hedge fund buddies that probably wine and dine him and who have shorted the heck out of SD. Now they are looking for a couple of bad press releases to drive the price down, let the home gamers come in a short at $1.66, then they cover and run it up.

    It's interesting how a couple of years ago Cramer was fawning all over Tom Ward and how everything Ward did was the best and smartest ever done, had him on the show, laughed, and said that the $12/s stock was a buy/buy/buy.

    Well now oil is in a down cycle and the companies have to manage through tough times, Cramer is now bashing, publishing the obvious, and doing everything he can to drill this company into the ground.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    morningstar rating

    by leghorn9 Mar 3, 2015 7:26 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 4, 2015 8:30 AM Flag

    No kidding - all of these self serving analysts have a highly vested interest in which way they want the stock price to go. I feel that Stock Rating firms should be completely independent from the brokerages, so that there is a lower conflict of interests. Granted, a lot of these smaller firms can say whatever they want, and they do. But their comments aren't recognized by the broader market, which is good.

    Just one other comment - they seem to have 20-20 hindsight vision, they rate a stock as a sell when its at its been at its all time low for months, and they rate it as buy when it reachs its 52 wk high. Jesus - I can't believe people pay those companies for that type of information or listen to them.

    I bought 81,000s at $1.68. I setting some targets 3/6/9 months out and I'm going to avoid any day to day swings. Oil will be back and SD Mgt is taking the steps to adjust for the situation.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 1, 2015 9:22 PM Flag

    thanks brice

  • Reply to

    I think it's funny how...

    by bullionbull Feb 28, 2015 3:57 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 1, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    No kidding. I really wish the short bashers could come clean and tell us why the believe what they believe.

    When SD was at $7.25, I could see why a short seller would make that trade.

    Now that SD is a $1.77, I don't get it and I question whether they are stubbornly trying to get the last pennies out of their investment before they cover.

    All you get from the Short People is super negative sound bites. I would love from one of them to explain their short strategy without all of the PR BS.

    Sentiment: Buy

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