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Swift Energy Co. Message Board

mswanson45 720 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 25, 2015 9:36 AM Member since: Nov 18, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Saudis killed my play

    by marquesedillinger Apr 24, 2015 10:27 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Apr 25, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    They are simply posturing in front of the OPEC Meeting scheduled for June. With the recent jump in oil prices, everyone is thinking the worst is over and things are going back to normal. The Saudi's are just sending a message that they need to come to the table and be will to negotiate production cuts that everyone adheres to.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • How did it go?

  • Reply to

    Swift to present to investors today.

    by atrial_cure Apr 20, 2015 9:42 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Apr 20, 2015 9:57 AM Flag

    Investor Presentation happen during the day all the time. It's 30mins (20 presentation/10 Q&A) - they give guidance and that's it. They don't report their financials.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    GO TEAM SHORT!!!

    by ldiii Apr 17, 2015 5:19 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Apr 19, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    LOL - This must be Rebecca's alias! or twin sister.

    There is no chance of any walk down. Short covering is occurring, oil is off the bottom of $43, rig counts are lowest since '09, CapEx cut by most North Am Oil companies, OPEC is almost in a regional war, and Saudi Arabia is hemorrhaging money protecting their borders. The OPEC meeting in June will be used to set the oil price back to the $80-90 bbl range. We may even see demand outstripping supply cause a whiplash in oil prices.

    My money is on the large institutional stock holders looking to use the high volatility to cover their positions before more M&A's are announced or before Swift is actually sold at $12/s.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Zacks Short Term Rating on Swift Energy Company

    by eisecarma Apr 15, 2015 6:54 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Apr 15, 2015 9:05 AM Flag

    Scottrade MarkeEdge raised their rating to a Buy last week. I think everyone realizes the oil market has bottomed and is now on the upswing. And with SFY on sale for 75% off, you are going to see a lot of the money who fled last summer come back into this severely beaten down sector.

    It will be interesting to see what happens when all of these institutional short sellers realize they need to cover before they lose their gains.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Just saw it on my Scottrade account

  • Reply to

    IPAA conference can't find it

    by chegerar Apr 14, 2015 1:36 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Apr 14, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    Conference is not until monday -

  • Reply to

    Accumulate_Don't Get Caught on the Sidelines

    by lhaney68 Apr 14, 2015 3:49 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Apr 14, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    Just watch the short stampede to cover – market is changing – you can feel it, see it. Double in 2 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Last week the opinion was SELL with a standard paragraph on all the reasons why you should sell. Same reasons they had for all of the smaller Oil and Gas companies.

    The point is their opinion has shifted - same throughout the market. On monday, almost all of the Oil and Gas stocks took off. I was like someone fired the starters pistol on buying. Did anyone else notice or feel that way? They are also publishing a $8 dollar price target vs going broke. Go figure.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    remember PWE used to be $40

    by daicheng0722 Apr 2, 2015 3:35 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Apr 5, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    I can see a 3X move back to the late Nov / early Dec price levels. Now that all of the negative news is priced into the market, the potential bottoming in oil prices, and the geopolitical uncertainty in the market is to the upside. Looking for between 5-6 in next 3-4 months. And if we get any major supply disruptions, we may see the 7's again.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • for the Iran decision. Sounds like the Oil Storage problem may not materialize. Insiders starting to buy so maybe in 2-3 months we can expect to see light at the end of the tunnel.

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 30, 2015 5:40 PM Flag

    My guess is that they won't reach a deal - 2 reasons. First, they don't want to appear to be weak to their countrymen by agreeing too easly. Second, it will buy Iran more time to finish their nuclear weapon work before the contract deals expose the facts that they don't tend to comply.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Low oil prices to come

    by rhulman Mar 29, 2015 9:24 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 30, 2015 8:31 AM Flag

    Low was $4.83/s in March 3, 2009 which was at the point of complete Financial System meltdown. If the financial system collapsed which is it was very close to collapsing, then the price of oil and the stocks could have gone to zero.

    We are in a manufactured downcycle, the price cannot be sustained at these levels and everyone knows it. The Saudi's are waiting for the pain to get bad enough for everyone to come back to the table and negoiate real production limits which they all abide too.

    These prices are low - overlay the stock price vs oil prices for the last 30 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Low oil prices to come

    by rhulman Mar 29, 2015 9:24 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 29, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    You have Brokerage firms on both sides of the trade and they publish what is beneficial to their positions. Oil may go down as perception drives reality, but look at what is going on in the middle east right now - complete breakdown of the region. At some point, the Saudi's are going to have to wake up and realize that their market share in the US is going to drop and may be gone until the shale boom plays out. The Saudi's and OPEC may also be asking themselves is a 60% cut in oil price worth the 10% reduction in their production. If they want to continue on this self destruction path, then we may see lower oil prices. If the Saudi's and other OPEC members can mutually agree to a production cut, then they all win.

    Right now I would say the middle east is in its worst position it has been in the last 50 years and why the price of oil hasn't reflected that risk is baffling.

    Stock prices for the Oil and Gas companies are on sale at 75-80% discounts to what they were during "normal" economic periods. If the middle east falls apart - I want to be a buyer at these prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    quite the pump and dump scam going on here

    by stocksarerigged Mar 26, 2015 11:59 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 26, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    Definitely - I know some of our other message board members blast him - but I think he is taking advantage of a crisis and we will come out further ahead when the saudi's finally realize that the production levels are only hurting their bottomline

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    quite the pump and dump scam going on here

    by stocksarerigged Mar 26, 2015 11:59 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 26, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    this is SFY's normal daily pattern - it goes up, then collapses, then climbs back up; and somtimes it even closes in the Green. If you are long - sell on the jumps, buy back in; and repeat.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 24, 2015 5:50 PM Flag

    No it's not - options awarded and options exercised are free (given to employee by the company as part of their compensation package and vest over a period of 4-5yrs). The employee gets the difference between the current market price and the awarded strike price.

  • Reply to

    SFY shares on sale

    by buyamericantrucks Mar 24, 2015 12:46 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 24, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Everything in the store is 80% off. Even the short sellers agree with the move from 50% shorted to 35% shorted. Don't be the last short selling bag holder. Get your Swift shares now while they are on sale and flying off the shelves.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ask yourself Why shorts are covering?

    by halap5 Jan 13, 2015 2:31 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 22, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    Short interest reached near 50% in the December timeframe which was at the peak velicity of Negative Press on Oil dropping to $20bbl and the OPEC Decision to keep their production capacity as-is.

    We are now seeing that second drop in prices, but the price of oil seems to be settling out, the June OPEC Meeting is approaching, drilling rigs have dropped signficantly, and CAPEX budgets have been significantly reduced.

    Short Sellers made their money - a lot of it. At this level Bears make money and Hogs get slaughered. This is the Hog Level. The Shorts are using the high price volatility to cover without driving the price up too quickly. My guess is that opportunity is now moving to the upside and they know it. The horizon for gains is in the next 12-18 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Mar 18, 2015 8:07 PM Flag

    Appreciate your response. I forgot about the Fed meeting today. I was surprised by the effect their decision had on the dollar and how that rippled into the price of oil. I agree that the quick rise may be followed by a quick drop. With Options Expiring on Friday, it should an interesting week. Screw the shorts - I really hope they get hurt - I'm down - I want them out for the count. take care

SFY
2.95+0.08(+2.79%)11:14 AMEDT