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Swift Energy Co. Message Board

mswanson45 77 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 19, 2014 2:44 PM Member since: Nov 18, 2007
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  • Jezz, volume is below avg volume - price keeps dropping day after day. I think the company made the announcement and hoped the press release was enough to appease the shareholders - with nothing behind it. This is getting tiring.
    Sell assets to get to profitability or joint venture to drill more or right size the company - do something to get the stock price off of a 10 year low (except for the financial collapse of 2008). Pathetic.

    Sentiment is going towards sell - they have had enough time since the Quarterly report.

  • Exact same scenario in the Stock Price - it was interesting to listen to the CEO saying that things are great, moving forward, largest NG discovery made in the Marcellus,.... Cramer asked if he could explain the reason for the stock price going from the 8's down to the 5's. The CEO said that "no I can't explain why the drop but its happening to everyone in the sector". He also stated that they are extremely undervalued and they expect the market and stock price to recover.

    Basically, the same story as SD. Maybe we have to be patient and things will get back on track. No one is going out of business or bankrupt. This just bullpoopola manipulation - short, drive the price way down, then buy options on the upside, then close your shorts and pocket a bunch of cash.

    I kick myself for not selling at $7, but I'm holding until next May.

  • 40M share potentiial buys - notthing is going on - another smoke and mirror ploy by the company. I'm getting tired of waiting. Mgt needs to raise shareholder value or they need to be replaced.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    OT: Motley Fool also gone?

    by hrdwkgdog Aug 26, 2014 2:31 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Aug 26, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    There was an email from Motley to users who had signed up on their website for article distribution that they were being removed from Yahoo. Personally, the Fool just published pumps and dumps in the same day, flip flopping weekly. Nothing more the opinion bloggers - same as what is on this board. No reason to give them any creditability or pay them for writing the obvious. Good ridence.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • There are similar patterns in the last 2 years which correlate to the current stock price trend. Historically, I would expect to see a increase to about the $6.30 price range which is the lower stock range over the last 6 months.

    I know a lot of the other members of this board seem to bash everything and everybody, but I also know trading algorithm software that looks at all of the data, identifiies buy/sell points, smells fear, predicts greed, calculates margin levels, then it buys/sells based on the trends, they blow past the sell stops, create margin calls, all leading to a major sell off.

    The shorts won that battle - what I'm now hoping for is that the shorts close their positions, the stock price rises, we get positive guidance from the company, positve 3rd Qtr Earnings, and we will be right back up to where the sell off cycle repeats.

    This my analysis - not a guess - not bashing - not pumping - I'm going to let the charts tell me if I'm right.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Avg volume is below the daily average since the buy back was announced. I'm really getting tired of this company's tomorrow's promises - Ward said we are investing today (2011) for Harvesting in (2013). New Mgt to turn things around,

    It's been nothing and nothing; except quater after quarter share price drops. Jezz - get management that executes.

    I'm hold but thinking hard whether this is a money hole.

    MGT NEEDS TO SHOW US THE MONEY.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Sep 19, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    The whole Buy Back Annoucement is just a ruse - announce it with nothing behind it. If the company really feels the value of the company stock is $10-15, then I would expect aggressive buying at this price level.

    It feels like the same story as given the last 5 years - smoke - mirrors - no action - lip service. I'm very tired of MIA Mgt.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • I have sent them numerous emails and have never heard a word. I have to admit that my last 10 have been what are you doing, earn your money, manage the company, do something....

    I am going to call them this week and talk to them. They are responsible for managing the business, their employees, and their shareholders. And they are cleary not managing shareholder value or communications.

    So anyone have any communications with these guys?

    I've been on vacation this week and unable to get to a computer otherwise, I would of sold.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Looking like another GMXR

    by iamthewalrus_3214 Sep 30, 2014 2:21 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Sep 30, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    Not quite the same - GMXR had huge drilling cost and high debt structure. They were loosing money on everyhole.

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Oct 3, 2014 7:52 AM Flag

    One other point of Saudi price cuts - CNBC was saying that the Saudi's are trying to snuff out the amount of driller than is economical at $100bbl. Only problem is that the Saudi's need a $100bbl to continue to run their economies at home. They bought peace during the arab spring uprising with money. They don't want to lose control of their oil assets to political unrest. They have ISIL on their doorstep - the saudi oil owners have to worry about their continued funding of peace and happiness. One other point OPEC had the power to set production quota's by mandate - they don't have that control over the US and Russia Oil Production Operations.

    I see this as a PR stunt on the saudi's side.

  • Based on the conference call - the points made by Cooperman should have been discussed by the Management Team. I would expect some news from the Mgt team to give the major shareholders what they want or to post some spectacular news regarding the results of their current operations. I would say the BOD and the current Management Team is on short notice and they need to show results and turn the stock price around. Otherwise, the CEO will be replaced, and BOD's will be asked to resign. That means the CEO career will be in the toilet and this may be his last chance to stay in the executive ranks. I would expecct we some slew of Press Releases announcing whatever they feel can show the boat is changing course to better waters.

    Otherwise, I'm selling my 72000 shares before the big money throws in the towel.

    Work Day Countdown: 60 days to new management direction.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Please listen to the CC

    by bigrgub Aug 8, 2014 11:07 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Aug 9, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    I listened to the conference call - the 500MB Oil that was missed due to weather and power could be a blip. And if they make it up in Q3 like they said on the call, then I think the stock will recover to the near highs. It seems that any news and especially bad news has a massive over reaction.

    We are going to have to wait until they give us a press release on improved guidance or the next earnings report before we really know if this is a blip or a string of excuses. I don't believe it's excuses - Bennett was very impressive when he took over last year and started the turn around. Every Exec has the oh - poop moments - this is his.

    Now buy stock back at 30% off - sell the water management business to Ecolab - and start marketing the company for sale.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Buyback of shares

    by carmineconspiracy Sep 5, 2014 10:56 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Sep 6, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    200M buy back may net 35-40M shares. I doubt that the buying trigger didn't start day 1 after the announcement. I would expect that the company put out the announcement and the buying when the prices are right.
    They have 900M cash, 1.5B capex, so they can pull from both of those sources to buy stock back, plus scale back, slow down, or delay drilling costs at any point in the next 12 months.

    Cooperman, said on the call that buying back at the 5-6 range can give the company a 20% return on their investment and leave the oil/gas in the ground.

    Company could be reducing 8-10% of their stock. I would expect that to hit the stock price at some point. The Big Money owns the majority of the shares, I'm sure they are playing every which hedging strategy, but at some point they know that the last guy short is going to be the biggest loser.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DEBT matters!

    by buyrightone Oct 3, 2014 1:33 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Oct 5, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Revenues will not change for the next 12+ months. Almost all of their oil is hedged at ~$95-98 bbl. Their NG is hedged at ~4.25+, so they had contracts in place for remainder of this year and next year. So nothing in their business model will be impacted.

    For short term, the strong dollar, saudi price cuts, world wide drop in demand, and all-time low SD stock price is the extact reason that Cooperman says to buy stock and leave the oil in the ground until the market improves.

    The $200m buyback is what ~15-20% of the cash allocated to capex. That still gives the company $800-1000m to sustain their replacement drilling to maintain their current output.

    With the whole world macro economic climate - I surprised when SD Mgt hasn't pursued a larger buy back or just cut/defer their FY14 Capex spending. A simple email about their strategy could help the stock price and improve shareholder value.

    One last rant - with the Qtr Earnings about weeks away. I have got to think that Management is desperately trying to figure out what they can do to get the stock price up. Earnings will be there but the Stock Price could be a serious spanking of management team/CEO by the major investors. I should be an interesting month.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    COOPERMAN CALL

    by bigideaportugal Aug 8, 2014 9:29 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Aug 8, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    I don't think the Large Investors will throw in the towel - I think they will be put tremendous pressure on the BOD and CEO to sell the company at price that allows them to get some of their capital back. They were all brought in by the Activist Investor - you don't walk away.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    What's it been - week and half after earnings.

    by mswanson45 Aug 17, 2014 11:22 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Aug 18, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    no - its 72k shares - 1/2 at 6.90 and other 1/2 at around 5.62. I've lost a chunk. My breakeven is about 6.30. I'm keeping a pretty close eye on the price - if it goes below 5.10, I'm out with a loss. I don't believe that will be the case, and time will tell.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Aug 20, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    Cleint9 has nothing positive to say about anything - it's to the point where he/she is just noise.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Whoever would have thunk it

    by rlday2010 Oct 8, 2014 2:46 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Oct 8, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    I give up - can you say high frequency trading stock manuipulation. Just in time - I was standing on the ledge of 6 story building wondering if it was high enough to actually end all of this.

  • Reply to

    It's time to add

    by culleyjc52 Sep 8, 2014 11:00 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Sep 12, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    I don't think so - downward for last 12 o 13 weeks. Buy back announced and it still went down. If the company is going to buy shares - you think they would be picking them under $5 but, the average daily volume is way below the avg. Either the company expects this to go lower or they will buy back before the end of the quarter so that they can raise the share price before they have to answer Cooperman's questions at the Earnings Call.

    I've been postive on SD for years - my patience is wearing thin - I've set a date and a price that if it does not hit or exceed than I've got to let this go - just "LET IT GO" LET IT GO"......

    Turning into a seller - if they can't start showing results.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Buy Back may have started today

    by culleyjc52 Sep 15, 2014 10:15 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Sep 15, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    Sure looks like it - daily volume since the annoncement has been below the avg daily volume which to me means that there is no buy back activity. The +3M at 1.5 hrs into the trading day is significantly different than the normal days. To bad we are still -.08 down. This stock is getting old.

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