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Swift Energy Co. Message Board

mswanson45 82 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Nov 18, 2007
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  • Exact same scenario in the Stock Price - it was interesting to listen to the CEO saying that things are great, moving forward, largest NG discovery made in the Marcellus,.... Cramer asked if he could explain the reason for the stock price going from the 8's down to the 5's. The CEO said that "no I can't explain why the drop but its happening to everyone in the sector". He also stated that they are extremely undervalued and they expect the market and stock price to recover.

    Basically, the same story as SD. Maybe we have to be patient and things will get back on track. No one is going out of business or bankrupt. This just bullpoopola manipulation - short, drive the price way down, then buy options on the upside, then close your shorts and pocket a bunch of cash.

    I kick myself for not selling at $7, but I'm holding until next May.

  • Reply to

    Orchestrated Bear Raid and Manipulation

    by tomdaugherty_penn Oct 25, 2014 3:19 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Oct 25, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    They Major Fund holders short their own shares - drive the price down - they make money when they cover and buy their shares back a much cheaper prices. All the work is done by Program Trading Algorithms - the small investor only looses when they sell at the manipulated low prices.

    I am buying at these prices - low at the 10year/max stock prices and compare them to the price of oil. The oil companies' stock prices where at much higher prices when oil was at $70/80, so this is just a knee-jerk over sold situation because OMG the price of oil dropped below $100.

    One example - back when Gold hit $1900, the entire Financial News Media was yelling - Gold is going to $2500. You need to be a buyer of Gold before it takes off. Three months later we he $1600, six months later $1200. Conclusion - what ever is the most obvious headlines - do the opposite.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I have sent them numerous emails and have never heard a word. I have to admit that my last 10 have been what are you doing, earn your money, manage the company, do something....

    I am going to call them this week and talk to them. They are responsible for managing the business, their employees, and their shareholders. And they are cleary not managing shareholder value or communications.

    So anyone have any communications with these guys?

    I've been on vacation this week and unable to get to a computer otherwise, I would of sold.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Looking like another GMXR

    by iamthewalrus_3214 Sep 30, 2014 2:21 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Sep 30, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    Not quite the same - GMXR had huge drilling cost and high debt structure. They were loosing money on everyhole.

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Oct 3, 2014 7:52 AM Flag

    One other point of Saudi price cuts - CNBC was saying that the Saudi's are trying to snuff out the amount of driller than is economical at $100bbl. Only problem is that the Saudi's need a $100bbl to continue to run their economies at home. They bought peace during the arab spring uprising with money. They don't want to lose control of their oil assets to political unrest. They have ISIL on their doorstep - the saudi oil owners have to worry about their continued funding of peace and happiness. One other point OPEC had the power to set production quota's by mandate - they don't have that control over the US and Russia Oil Production Operations.

    I see this as a PR stunt on the saudi's side.

  • Nov 22 – Price hit high top Bollinger band – price broke 10dma, price is just below 50 dma. Bollinger Band mean is leveling, 50dma is still moving down, broke top Bollinger band. Analysis – price has bottomed out, price is moving up, volume is increasing, MACD and Slow Stochastics is running positive, and RSI was running flat for the last month has now broken to the upside. Wait - expect Top Bollinger band to trend higher, hold until full price run-up is done and Top Bollinger band has leveled and starts trending down, wait for and sell on any major run-up spikes. Also, SD/oil trends higher in the Dec thru May period.

    My situation – bought on 11/20 at avg price of $3.86s. I'm holding with 13% of shares shorted,1st buyback underway, 85% oil hedged at $95+, and NG price rising with a extremely bad winter underway. My exit price is around $5.50- 6.00 depending on short covering, current trend indicators, and global oil situation.

    Let's see what happens in the next 4 months.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Forget about acreage sales

    by davida1027 Dec 8, 2014 4:29 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Dec 9, 2014 8:39 AM Flag

    I don't think one deal at another company signals the doom for the SFY Deal. It might, but there are a lot factors that go into any transaction and the time window for acquistions maybe multi-year. The short jolt in prices is just that - 3-months bottom-out, then stabilization and recovery.

    Saudi's are sending a message that OPEC has to operate as single entity. Saudi' don't want to be the only one reducing production which is what was expected at the last meeting. Oil at $62/bbl seems to have everyones attention and if you have been reading the price per bbl that most of the Oil Producing companies need to fund their economies, we could have a global meltdown of several countries. All of the OPEC Countries will need to meet (in next 2 months) to lay out and agree to a cut back plan across the board. Otherwise, they will be pumping away their assets at lower and lower prices; and they still wont be able to fund their Countries economy. And the Saudi's may suffer a backlash from all of the Mid-East countries that are going to fall into civil unrest - the Saudi's are worried about the Arab Spring. This is a major event that could spill into Saudi Arbia. Remember, the Saudi Arab is not run by Religous Leaders but by the royal families - they need global stability too.

    And my position on SFY - is they are doing the right thing to focus on NG - keep as much revenue coming in as possible, shut down all oil expenses, and get through the next 6 months. I'm buying more at each price drop.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DEBT matters!

    by buyrightone Oct 3, 2014 1:33 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Oct 5, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Revenues will not change for the next 12+ months. Almost all of their oil is hedged at ~$95-98 bbl. Their NG is hedged at ~4.25+, so they had contracts in place for remainder of this year and next year. So nothing in their business model will be impacted.

    For short term, the strong dollar, saudi price cuts, world wide drop in demand, and all-time low SD stock price is the extact reason that Cooperman says to buy stock and leave the oil in the ground until the market improves.

    The $200m buyback is what ~15-20% of the cash allocated to capex. That still gives the company $800-1000m to sustain their replacement drilling to maintain their current output.

    With the whole world macro economic climate - I surprised when SD Mgt hasn't pursued a larger buy back or just cut/defer their FY14 Capex spending. A simple email about their strategy could help the stock price and improve shareholder value.

    One last rant - with the Qtr Earnings about weeks away. I have got to think that Management is desperately trying to figure out what they can do to get the stock price up. Earnings will be there but the Stock Price could be a serious spanking of management team/CEO by the major investors. I should be an interesting month.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Whoever would have thunk it

    by rlday2010 Oct 8, 2014 2:46 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Oct 8, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    I give up - can you say high frequency trading stock manuipulation. Just in time - I was standing on the ledge of 6 story building wondering if it was high enough to actually end all of this.

  • Oh what a short squeeze we are in. Especially with NG going to $4.40mbtu.
    I am glad I traded out of SD to SFY.

    Let's ride this to $9.00 on short sellers covering.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buffalo NY considering switching to solar power

    by hrdwkgdog Nov 21, 2014 4:06 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Nov 21, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    Minneapolis has been freezing since 1st of Nov. It's absolutely been a brutal fall. The thing that keeps me going is knowing how much NG is being used! Go Polar Votex!!!

  • Reply to

    New York Trip

    by hengeern Oct 3, 2014 1:00 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Oct 3, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    Why would IR go to NY?

    If they are traveling with the CFO or CEO, then maybe they are discussing taking the company private, Stock Buy Back Strategy/Progress/Expanded buyback Program, or options for a all stock Buy Out offer.

    Otherwise, it may be major shareholder/institutions asking for a managment briefing on what the heck is going on and what are they planning to do about it.

    Or they are opening an offshore account and transferring all of the remaining cash into it; and fleeing the country.

    It's one of the 3.

  • They go Green - I give up - but thank god.

  • They could buy back 200,000s if they fired the IR staff.

  • I'm going to be patient and wait.
    Complete market overaction and manipulation.

    I only wish that SD Mgt would expand their buyback another $400M and buyback and retire 150M shares.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Dec 9, 2014 5:35 PM Flag

    I put Repeccer on ignore - I don't mind opposing views - but someone who is nothing but belligerent needs to be put on ignore so there message is never seen or heard from again.

  • The $11/s price is almost 2X of current price. I sold out of SD and moved into SFY. I am buying in at 6.44 and I'll wait. I liked SD but the Earning Restatements and the lawsuits has the feel of a negativity pile on. It feels like SD may go the direction of FST.

    I've been in and out of SFY over the last year, I had a couple of very large run-ups and made a bunch of cash only to put it into SD and watch it slip away.

    I'm going to hold for next 6-12 months. Oil cant stay down this low for very long. Hopefully we will see the price double+ in the next year. Good luck to the longs - hope the shorts cover, make and take their money but move the price back up to 11-12.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Dec 3, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    China - buy now when cheap - lobby Washington to remove Export Restrictions - ship cheap oil to Chna. Sounds like a plan.

  • Reply to

    Sold all my SFY @ 3.92..

    by keltus1952 Dec 2, 2014 10:46 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Dec 2, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    You didn't sell did you? You suffered all the way down.
    Swift is converting their focus to NG at higher pricing - they were $20+ when they were a NG Play.

  • Reply to

    Coop & silent TPG

    by russ69v Sep 25, 2014 9:38 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Sep 29, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    Go out and read there Investor Presentation - they are hedge at $99bbl for FY14 and about the same for FY15; they also have 3-way collars for hedging most of the FY15 oil. Their revenues should be fine for the next year but it's the production rates that seems to be hurting them.

    Sentiment: Hold

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