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Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation Message Board

mswanson45 65 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 18, 2015 11:05 AM Member since: Nov 18, 2007
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  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 18, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    Cmoni - great observation. I have come to the same conclusion.

    The Brokerages rate companies as BUY when they are at the very tippy top and SELL when they are at the basement bottom. I have come to do the contrary when I read the price targets and listen to the Business News.

    I have been buying as of SFY as I can afford. My timeframe is 1-2 years for my taxable investments and 5-10 yrs for my IRA holdings.

    Go look at SFY Energies - Price Chart for the Max range (30 years). Then go get the IEA charts for oil for the same period. If you overlay SFY with the Oil Price curves - you will see that SFY has weather 2 Oil Downturns and recovered very nicely.

    The same is going to happen again - 5-10x returns in the next 5 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • going away. It used to be a dull roar daily. But it feels like things have bottomed and we are at the beginning of what will be a slow upward trend.
    I have a bet with my friend Jim who was a long time chemical engineer in the refining business. His bet is that oil will be 70-80 in two years - I'm a lot more optimistic - 90-110 in 2 years.

    My rationale is that when you shut down the capex and cancel projects, it takes a long time to reapprove capex and get those project back in production. What will drive prices up is the gap in supply which will be lower due to all of the cut backs, and higher demand with US economy ramping up, Europe and Japan stimulus programs, and China working through their lower growth rates.

    Seeya at the bank in 2 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 15, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    Are you guys too stupid to listen - ruhulman said british multinational -

    He means Charles Barkley- and Charles says SFY was worth $20/s on average when the price of oil was selling at $25 bbl - all through the 1990's to 2005.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 15, 2015 12:39 AM Flag

    Why do you post what is published in the Press Release - put some thought into your posts and secondly minizmize your posts - you present yourself as a lunitic.

  • Reply to

    is anyone concerned about vincent leaving ?

    by lombardcae Jan 14, 2015 10:37 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 15, 2015 12:33 AM Flag

    I don't have any insight to the internal operations of the company, but here is what I read into his departure. First of all I sure he was a highly regarded member of the senior management team and that his absence will be felt. Secondly, the company is looking to reduce all costs and my guess is that Mr. Vincent is too costly to keep at this point and the fact that he is 67 says its time for him to leave the company. The 3rd thing this tells me is that the company is not considering a buyoff of anysort. Most executive stock programs have a 100% vesting of stock options upon being acquired. This being the case, Mr. Vincent would not have retired if any buyout opportunity was out there, so there is no buyout on the horizon. Lastly, the company is taking all the right steps to survive - reduce costs, shift to NG, reduce capex to focus on NG, leave the oil in the ground, and wait for price of oil to come back. Don't sell the company for pennies on the dollar.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I'd rather hold and wait for the stock to recover, or go broke and loose the little let that I have. But selling now - makes no sense. And Shorting now - makes no sense. The shorts have made their money - the remaining short value opportunity is $2 - the upside loss is more than $2. So what ever logic is driving the Stock price is beyond me. I'll sit here in my foxhole with my helmet and wait for this to blow over. Hey Jim - anything to add?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Any guesses ??

    by albyh3 Jan 13, 2015 11:07 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 13, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    Capex reduction is a Positve Move. Company switching to NG - wells are producing.
    I have no idea why this price is acting the way it is.

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 13, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    Its a weird market - the cut to capex is exactly the action that management should have taken, and it seems that good moves are met with the stock getting hammered.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 12, 2015 4:44 PM Flag

    It sure looked that way with the tight range - it must have been 2m halve a penny trades.

    Must be waiting for the coupon payment. I took this opportunity to buy a small amount at 2.70.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 11, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    Your analysis accurate, but the short position % has been at this level for a year plus. I'm hoping a turn in the oil price or the annoucment of an emergency OPEC Meeting will be that event that triggers rapid short covering. No matter what happens at this price - I'm holding my existing shares, I'm adding to my position and waiting for the rebound.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SFY bond coupon payment......CNBC piece.

    by keltus1952 Jan 9, 2015 10:04 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 9, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    I guessed - I would have to go back to their financials add up their total liquidity. Point is they are not going to miss a payment.

    I don't understand your position - are you a short and want to see if you can drive the price down or you a disgruttled employee/investor who just hates the company. Or you a frustrated Long?

    I see value in the company but its not reflected in stock price. And I feel that the level of Market Manipulation is driving me nuts.

  • Reply to

    SFY bond coupon payment......CNBC piece.

    by keltus1952 Jan 9, 2015 10:04 AM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 9, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    I spoke to IR, they have the $10M, they have $100M liquidity. This is media sensationalism - selling news just like the tabliods. Purely irresponsible journalism.

  • Reply to

    Q4 Estimate of Results

    by sd_jones_1984 Jan 7, 2015 6:28 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 8, 2015 9:12 AM Flag

    Yeah - that's what they said. I forgot to ask them about that.

    The last time I spoke to Paul Vincent and yesterday I spoke to a woman who works for him.

    One thing I can say for SFY is that if you email them with a phone number - they will call you back! I own SD too, trying emailing/contacting them - nothing - absolutely no response.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q4 Estimate of Results

    by sd_jones_1984 Jan 7, 2015 6:28 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 7, 2015 7:16 PM Flag

    Agree - nice analysis.

    Also, I spoke to IR about whether they watched the CNBC Report and whether they were going to respond to it. Their answer was Yes they watched it, and no they are no going to put out a Press Release to respond to the media hype. Their policy is never to respond to media rumors or new casts. Which is good.

    I also asked about the coupon payment next week - their response was that they have the cash and paying the debt is business as usual.

    One other thing they said is that they have been very transparent on the steps they are taking to adjust to market conditions, publishing their new wells results, they have been in this position before, they know what they need to do to weather this storm, and they will let their day-to-day actions speak for themselves.

    I realize that this is probably as much as they can say - the bottom-line is that they are working all angles to get through this bad situation.

    I guess I am going to hang in there and hopefully get through this with more money that I do today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Jan 7, 2015 5:33 PM Flag

    Hellion, you use the term "we". Are you apart of the company?

  • If you did - did they give any info on the following:

    1. Why haven't they updated their Corp Presentation since Nov to address the current Oil Market Conditions?

    2. Any target date on when their Quarterly Reports will be published?

    3. Update on the $200M Stock Repurchase Program - if you are going to buy back stock, then $1.36 is the time to do it.

    That's it - not asking for all that much.

    Can anyone provide any real information? No Elvis, No BK, No Bear Streans manipulators - unless you can't help yourselves.

  • Reply to

    Lawyers piling on SD

    by patkc69 Dec 31, 2014 1:43 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Dec 31, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    That is a good question, I'm out about same. I'm out of the company now - what would be the downside of signing up with the lawyers.

    I hate to say but I threw in the towel on this company. I moved the money to other oil E&P Companies that have Corp Presentation and Press Releases that explains what they are going to do to weather this down turn, adjustments to their CapEx, and other plans to reserve cash and minimize expenses.

    I have called and emailed SD IR - NO RESPONSE - NOTHING. i own SFY and I called and emailed their IR, who emailed me and gave me his direct number. He spoke to me for 1/2 hour. SD - voice message system. SD is operating like a fly by night outfit.

    I sold my 80,000s - for a loss.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Time is ticking away

    by cleint9 Dec 24, 2014 4:14 PM
    mswanson45 mswanson45 Dec 26, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    I expect some EOY Tax selling through 12/31.

    I also expect some Opportunity Buyers coming in the next couple of days to pick up check stocks before the New Year buying back in starts.

    Bottomline, is that I think we are going to go sideways until after the 1st of the year and the 2012/13/14 Earnings are released.

    What really #$%$ me off about Sandridge is their Executive Mgt Team and their IR. They have done nothing to update the Investor Presentation or Press Release or Investor Presentation to explain what they are going to do get through this MAJOR DOWNTURN.

    What it tells me is they are proabably working behind the scenes to Sell the company at some low price to another company with the same Investor base. The new company gets it cheap based on market conditions, and they make out like bandits in 12-18 months when the world oil demand returns and all of the terminated drilling projects put us in a severe shortage situation.

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Dec 24, 2014 2:08 PM Flag

    Okay, I did a little homework - the $200,000,000 invested in 2009 resulted in ~2,000,000s (based on stock price ~$10/s). The Conversion Schedule per Convertible Share = 9.21 or 18,422,992 shares * $2.01 closing price on Friday= $36,800,000.

    For a total loss to the Preferred Shareholders of ($163,200,00). Plus we don't have to pay $9.6m dividends (4.5/semi-annual).

    Wow - did they get screwed.

  • mswanson45 mswanson45 Dec 24, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    How did they come up with the 9.2? Is a Preferred Share value = $19. What was the Basis of calculation?
    I ask, because I don't know and haven't found the information yet.

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