I was glad halt was lifted also. I was able to buy more shares under $5 with the knowledge that Illuvien was already approved.
Wall Street left early today for the Rosh Hashanah holiday.
Up 15% in after hours trading. Monday will be the big pop...
You mean the drug that doesn't work half as well as Illuvien? Yeah, that will likely be off the market by 2020.
Keep playing this one on the short side and you'll lose everything --- your home, your nest egg...EVERYTHING
Based on the US FDA approval of Illuvien...
Estimated earnings of $150,000,000 / year = EPS of approximately $5.00
Multiple of 20 for a growing biotech / healthcare concern.
$100 per share in 2020 !!!
Wrong --- Icahn can stop the share price from dropping. He can simply say, "I'm taking HLF private for $85 per share" and it's game over for the shorts.
Then, in 2016, when the ridiculous government probe has been concluded, and Herbalife has paid a minimal fine and agreed to change some procedures and improve its training program, Icahn will take HLF public again for $150 per share.
Carl can do anything he wants. He's Carl Icahn.
Outstanding analysis. I would expect that Carl Icahn has already conducted a similar one.
As for those who keep clinging to the "pyramid scam" nonsense, what they fail to realize is that MLM companies are and have been legal entities in the USA for decades. If the US government determines that Herbalife has done anything wrong, HLF will get hit with a fine and will have to amend its procedures and training programs. Then the company will go back to focusing on making hundreds of millions of dollars in profit each year (just as it does now).
And concerning who may want to buy Herbalife --- well, Icahn for one. If he takes the company private now for $85 per share, he waits out the US government investigation, and in 2016 takes HLF public again at a price of $150 or more. He ends up getting HLF at a discount because of the investigation, and gets the premium when it's all over.
No one really believes that the US government is going to shut down HLF (even Ackman doesn't believe this in his heart-of-hearts). The US government has no interest in making hundreds of thousands of more people unemployed by setting some new unreasonable and extreme standard when it comes to MLMs.
- Price is right for a takeover. Could be $85 target.
- Most likely scenario is that US Government investigation will result in a fine and will require Herbalife to revise its procedures and training program. Chances of the US Government shutting HLF down are less than 3%.
- Following the investigation, Icahn and company would take the company public again at a relative value of around $150 per share. Nearly a double in less than 2 years.
No, I'm not currently involved in DNDN. I sold out my position back when the stock last spiked to $3.30 - $3.40 per share. At that time I also went short for a brief period. I covered the short position in March when it traded around $3. Don't want to have too big a short position in a low-priced stock that can easily be bought out. No percentage in it, and just too much risk.
With a new CEO and a stock price at $1.50, I'm basically kicking the tires to see if it's worth getting back into DNDN. Had a nice revenue pop last quarter, but not enough to stop the cash from bleeding.
This is very much a binary trade now. Either the company gets bought out or they declare bankruptcy. They missed the chance to turn things around nine months or more ago. There's too much debt and too little time for a turn around now.
Can't believe there are still no buyers for the product and technology.
At a $1.50, the share price is like that of a long-term option. You really don't need to buy the options when the share price is this low.
So if he said it will next go to $36 and might later rise to $45, that doesn't mean that he is predicting $36?
Next support level is $34 per share...