I hear you --- its counter intuitive. And its not just our Fed printing money. Japan is doing it, Eurozone is doing it, and CHina has to do because they have pegged the yuan to the US dollar. Its creating serious inflation there. Plus, the devaluation of long term debts in fixed currencies would lead to some form of hard hedge (like gold). China has been buying gold recently as a hedge. I suspect some major economies in Europe have off loaded some to offload the burden of their heavy debts, but that does not account for the crash. India too has been way down on the market given their poor economy this year. Too many fundamental reasons for gold to move up again at some point in near future. I don't like what the global treasuries have done and am long on long calls on NEM ---- too, supply will dwindle as production will fall off given that gold is now near its production costs ---- too many factors now geared to move gold north in my opinion
I agree. Imagine that IF AMSC actually did go under. Most of the investing world would hold Sinovel responsible for this and they would NEVER get out from under the weight of public opinion. Seems an out of court settlement where they can get the Chinese court system out of it (to save face for the government) is in their best long term interest as well as the Chinese government. Not sure if they could pull off one of those " no admission of guilt' settlements, but it would allow them to face the trade once again with some dignity that they resolved the issue and were not responsible for the demise of a company. Sinovel is clearly NOT better off with a dead AMSC
I'm curious as to why any customer would buy from Sinovel given the circumstances and risks surrounding their business. Warranties could go out the window if disaster strikes and they lose the lawsuit. Can you trust a company that could be involved in such a scandal ? And why would you want to associate with them if you had viable alternatives -- which are certainly out there ? I for one need for Sinovel to sustain their model in hopes that a settlement does get reached and ample funds are available to settle this --- but, I cant imagine a scenario where I'd give my business to a company surrounded in such a breach of ethics
unfortunately, broadcasters realize that airing news is a business. And news can be dull -- because its facts that the viewer must use to calculate his own opinions. TO make it more interesting, cast opinion as fact, and suddenly the opinion that is now news has tempers flaring and has created partisan viewership. Never mind that the opinions are at best loosely tied to facts. Great for ratings --- but not worth a penny of its profits as far as "News" goes
I think you're repeating my point. I don't know where the bottom is, maybe it is $19, but I am accumulating long at this point for all the reasons Ive stated. Get out when everyone wants in and get in when everyone wants out. The entry point has begun in my mind. Every major bank is devaluing its currency in a modern day currency war and yet it seems to go unnoticed because stock markets are booming. Countries like India are caught in the trap and will have to accelerate their devaluations as well. It is disastrous policy that works in the short run --- but the addiction is too great to ease off the printing presses. Im not really a gold enthusiast, but it is the next swing of the global pendulum
I personally like the idea that Corning is playing coy with its future forecasts. They let us know they like what they see, but they dont let us see much of it. Under promise and over deliver. FOr each of the last several quarters they have surprised on virtually all the important metrics. Despite the Wall Street run up, I still do no believe Corning has gotten the credit for this. THe stock is up becasue the market is up -- but the merit based boost seems to be left on the table still. Corning could easily have a 17 PE adding another $3 to share price. Time will fix this as good money never goes un noticed for long. In the mean time --- accumulate on dips. Corning holds a $30 stock price in the next couple of years under its belt coupled with a nice dividend while we wait
still waiting for any signs of intelligent life. I'll respond to myself here. Not that I want to use day to day stock market runs to make my point, but what is driving it is the peace of mind created by all the Central Banks easing monetary policy. THIs is spurring demand for cheap money, pushing unemployment down, deflating debt, and creating inflation. And, of all things, commodity prices (metals) are in a multi year funk coming out of the great recession. So what gives ? ? ? All this artificial demand has not yet hit this part of the market. The lull if you will. It cannot happen that demand booms, services boom, payrolls boom, and commodities bust. At least not thru the cycle. The other side of the pendulum is out there --- at least a way out there. Not predicting any calamity, but you cannot look at the new euphoria of events and not see that 3 years of $85 BB per month is finally having its way ---- a bottom is out there on metals
Not sure why Im taking a chance posting on this board as it seems completely irrelevent to investors. But there are several tangible precedents for buying gold stocks right now.
1) its cyclical -- and we are somewhere deep in to a cyclical trough. No telling if at bottom, but we're in it
2) the Fed - $85 BB / month is a real catalyst for gold. Its inflationary no matter what is said. Whether you like gold or not, history has always used it as a hedge against inflation --- and it will continue. The Feds continued push on the gas pedal is only more fuel to future gold pricing
3) China - the yuan is pegged to the dollar -- and the Chinese are being forced to print money just like we are to keep their currency whole. And they don't like it, but its not a free floating one, so they are stuck following US monetary policy -- little wonder why Hong Kong is importing as well as Beijing more gold than they ever have. It is a hedge against currency inflation
4) Japan --- ditto
5) improving global economies - always good for gold / metals pricing
don't be fooled by Fed speak and no inflation. Its there. They are doing this because of the moronic portion of their charter that mandates them to get unemployment to 6.5%. They cant, but they have to try -- and they do only what they can do. Print money --- but what it does is create inflation, cause income tax creep in AMT, causes the minimum wage to get cheaper artificially, and deflate current debt
Gold WILL go UP ! ! ! It will. The trick is buying gold stocks to the bottom and having the nerve and guts to wait it out. I dont like what the Fed is doing and I wish I could look at gold as a metal. But it is an investment vehicle for individuals to protect themselves against very dangerous Fed policies to our US dollar as well as others Dollars.
There, I did it --- I'll wait to see if there really is intelligent life out here
frothy market conditions and ever tight yielding cash and Bond markets are going to create safety investing over the next 8 weeks as we get in to the new year. Many companies hitting new highs daily. Fear of a correction is causing money shifting to safety and to value. GLW represents BOTH ! Stock holding up well in erratic market trading. Too, GLW's earnings future is more than likely to surprise upside. Has beaten estimates for several quarters -- should again next. PLus, added bonus of Samsung acquisition which was said to be immediately accretive -- by how much ? ? ? they were vague. And wisely so.
Just a few more reasons to nestle in to this stock thru year end ---- Next year will be a good one !
the Chinese don't really have legal precedents in their legal system nor in their psyche to review the case. Everything about it is counter to their interests. Namely, this defines "Rights" about an individual company. And Intellectual Property. And compensation for trampling on these. Defining penalties. And finally, establishing a system of justice with rules and penalties to establish these defined Rights. The Communist government wants no part of it --- so they will play the shell game with this for the world to see they have it in their legal proceedings, but with no real intention of addressing it. For doing so, they would be putting the entire Communist system under the weight of newly defined individual rights. And that would be suicide. A sad truth to this --- and one that should be noted by ALL who are willing to expose their valuables in China
Short interst now sitting at 11+% of float. Full 6 trading days to cover. SO a lot of bets on the table acting as a lid or as a floor depending on the next burst in fundamentals. Clearly, with stock trading below Book Value, Aluminum stuck in a capacity funk, and a pretty lofty debt load, many believe things will get worse thus the short postions. However, Aluminum is a growth commodity. AA is also a leader of high end manufactured products -- ie Airlines and Wheels among others -- growth business in which AA does well. And that is what has been providing the modest upsides to recent earnings and forecasts. And more to come with the latest rounds of Fed and Eurozone monetary easings ---- also, this is inflationary no matter how you look at it --- and taht will put yet more upward pressure on the commodity in time.
All told, AA has several opportunities for a breakout. ALuminum will eventually spike and AA will mint money at that point. THe end user market is providing upside that is overlooked. ANd finally, consolidation in the Metals industry is over due. Too many players not making money -- its going to happen. Will AA be on the "buying lunch" or "being lunch" menu ? Either way, that is a booster for the company once that starts
Big bets both ways now ---- I'm long this one for the reasons above. If it happens, it wont be a small move. Any of the above happens and this is a quick double. Mark it !
that is interesting --- and sloppy shoddy "research". Seems a top line review of numbers and suddently an expert report can be written to guide investor money. Every investor needs to do his own homework. What interests me, and it is subject to much important debate, is how big SPWR can be ? THe numbers are all over the board in varied degrees of speculation, but that is the basis for its future value. THey are gaining share in nearly all their global markets, the global market is growing, and the share of solar of the global energy market is less than 5%. So, as a basis for looking at SPWR's latest capacity numbers in 1, 3, and 5 years out and beyond . . . . just how big will the solar space be globally and what share could SPWR realistically achieve? Grasp that number, and we can easily back in to some profitability numbers.
One final point yet to be reviewed, is lifetime service now of sold panels. Their latest acquisition puts a new revenue stream in to place for routine maintenance (Cleaning) for possibly all solar panels -- not just SPWR's. Anyway, I do see 10 fold growth ability in SPWR based on my own "expertise"
with the market hitting fresh highs every day now, its the sexy stocks that have high growth or 'promise' of high growth that are getting investors dollars now. Not smart money coming in at this stage of the game. ONce again -- patience GLW investors. Healthy and profitable will be in vogue once again soon enough. No substitute for profitability and financial health. Corning sitting on enough cash to wipe out its long term debt.
THe $250 MM credit line at 3.7% is a non story -- Very normal -- and healthy. WIth 22% net profit margins, they should take all the 3.7% debt they can get their hands on.
Its all about growth now. Everything is in place. I would not rule out either another acquisition or a divestiture in the coming months as Corning is clearly rationalizing assets and balance sheet. Delivering shareholder value is the end objective and there is a LOT of pent up value waiting to be unleashed.
My sense is that good things are in store with the Samsung deal -- I think volume and margins are going to be bigger than stated. Drive that top line north of 10% in the coming year with prospects of sustained momentum and you'll see GLW go up both from earnings expansion as well as PE expansion -- to say 16 - 18. I see $25 - 30 by 2015
these notes are priced at 3.7%. Cheap debt --- another sign of GLW's financial health that they can get money this cheap. And so it is --- I'd borrow too at that rate if my cash was spent in ways that generated more tahn this --- and managment has made it clear that its own shares are good value as well as paying down higher rate debts.
Finally, with roughly 6 MM shares per month being bought at 2.7% dividend yield they no laonger have to pay, the costs is just 1%. And if you think the stock is worth 50% more in 2 years, then this is a no brainer --- borrow away Corning
I dont think so. There is this amazing thing called INSURANCE. IT protects investors from loss of assets in catastrophic events. You should check it out some time after you recover from your lobotomy
average analyst estimates for net year are $1.52. And its fair to assume this will be under stated given the recent beats. My number is $1.70. THrow in a 14 PE and there is your $24 stock. Little has been written about what the Samsung deal provides in earnings, but mgmt was quick to say that it would be instantly accretive to earnings. So start counting NOW. But how much ? THe synergies of this to GLW will materialize over a couple of quarters, but again, I believe the consenses falls short and holds the stock back with very little resistance.
I look for Corning to announce another dividend hike in the next 2 quarters to 44 cents ( a 10% bump). You'll continue to see approx 6 MM shares per month br bought in the share repurchase. ANd, the increased volumes from Samsung deal and no additional overhead to support it will fatten margins. Wall Street is simply not recognizing what is right in front of everyone. GLW should be apporaching $25 by this time next year sporting a 3+ % dividend for current holders. Little to speculate on here as the story is so straighforward.
well -- so much for interesting. THe meetings did in fact take place. And the discussions did cover governement/industry targets in many sectors and tightening up on capacity. It is a delicate matter in China as the central government is determined to keep unemployment in check and mandating capacity expansions is a great way to do it with massive treasury surpluses. But, even the CHinese will run out of money building things that arent needed and paying workers to produce things that arent wanted. Capital destruction is no way to placate your people. THe end game on this is clear -- how we get there is not clear. But, lower output and higher prices are in teh future for aluminum for no other reason than economics is going to take this game over at some point. Market prices below production costs is not sustainable --- anywhere
amen bucket. I accumulated over the last 2 years myself on "Belief". During the drought I had my doubts. But, I tested my will and bought and bought till I could buy no more. Accumulated quite a stockpile and held nearly all of it. Even bought some long options last May. Now, I look at my daily ups and downs range and I literally cant believe what I am seeing. Its joy and pain all at once. And no one to tell except my wife who who gives me a look wondering if 'its joy or pain'
thanks for all your postings -- you provide interesting factoids that I cannot uncover despite all my looking's. Lets enjoy the ride to $300 now. Start imagining how SPWR obtains $20 BB in revenue and we are all over it