well said bubba --- you will be proven right in time. a 10% haircut off of yesterday, given how hard won all that gain has been, is a stark reality of investor dissatisfaction. Trust in guidance and information that helps guide expectations in to earnings is important. And the reaction to the stock is a clear indication. All the money spent has not grown the company 1 cent. Nor has it grown your wallet via dividends. Investors will demand an accounting and GLW is ripe for a takeover in my opinion. Its margins are leaking, its volume is leaking, and its doing little to stop it other than buying in to more of itself. But its no longer convincing Wall Street of its greatness. Pristine balance sheet and strong cash flow and a discounted stock with bumbling leadership are the ingredients needed for a shakeup
Weeks has chased $Billions of good dollars after a COrning operation led by himself that underperforms. IN other words, the constant use of good cash buying nothing more than paper equity has brutalized growth and income for investors. What you've gotten for the $10 BB or so spent on buybacks here is a larger share of a $20 BB company. That's it. More of something that doesn't grow. $10 BB with roughly 1 BB shares equates to $10 per share of value. And where is it ? Don't tell me its embedded in your $19 stock. ITs been largely squandered on hope. Too many eggs in the no growth basket of Corning. IT should have been split between shareholder income via a now 80 - 100 cent annual dividend and a much reduced buyback and added acquisitions. Same dollars, different mix of investments.
We've all invested in things that didn't do so great. Corning does it every week. And we suffer for it.
Weeks is a trainwreck for stockolders
makes me think FCX undervalued it if that was the Indo offer. Bargaining with the devil here. Intro offers will be obscene --- and here we are
another quarter an another let down. Weeks has been signaling the much anticipated turnaround in glass for years. THe much anticipated blaze about to come. It never happens. THe recent acquisition was the BEST thing I have seen under his watch in a long time. He is a catastrophe running a public company. He cant instill confidence in investors and he cant align risk and reward for gains needed to run his business for shareholders. He's running this like its his company to his comfort level and Wall Street yawns. But, he's also under delivering on promises -- and that is the biggest sin of all sending value plummeting when truths must be revealed on earnings day. And so it goes --- more hype and more misses. Months of shaky gains to nudge over $20 and a total collapse of investor faith again --- terrible. THis one is all on Weeks
If Orn can fix its Tampa issues and if they can sustain recent momentum and get margins in to the high single digits we will see ORN as a $20 stock. I should be the objectives as they are quite doable and ordinary. Selling at 0.6 X Book Value with modest debt levels ORN is priced for a correction. With the TAS purchase, management replacement in Tampa, and a poor stock price there is plenty of motivation for a total turnaround by all levels of employees and plenty of pressure from shareholders.
The demand or services is out there. ORN has become one o my larger holdings for no other reason than it is poised for a major turnaround given its very cheap metrics. Management has engaged it would seem and results should follow --- and we should see a significant rise in the stock price with the first good upside earnings surprise.
good post. the asset sales have been quite telling. the acquiring companies know the value of those assets
and are simply payng what they see as market value. And it is quite different than what wall street believes
my bet is that the players have a better handle on the long value of the assets. FCX is heading to $20s this year. My bold predicton
we will los 52 week high' up until July 6 at which point we will have a range of approx. $15.50 and $19.50 for the 52 week high and low. And then one can look back 2 decades to see both of these prices. Chartists would tell you GLW has bottomed and ready for an uptick. Historians would tell you to expect more of the same. Investors . . . . . like death by a thousand cuts. Cornings massive cash flow should be used for investor income (aka dividends). Its misguided to pour so much in to something that doesn't grow, produces handsome ROI, and yet benefits no one. Corning sould be paying a $1 dividend -- hands down
probably to keep Ephraim Fields from scaring the beejeezus out of them again
people need to buy this with a 5 year time horizon. Near term FCX and all commodities will be volatile. Demand is uncertain and the supply is frankly out of balance due to the distortions of so much Miner debt. AS the industry consolidates and gets balance sheets in order, you will see something vastly different. There is not one miner right now that is in the business of selling finite supply at cost. They do it for now to pay bills, but a complete revaluation of this industry is in the works. 5 years. FCX could well be trading at 5X its current price. The dearth of CapEX and the new supply and demand curves are not even visible. But things will change and new financial metrics will change all these valuations in a big way. Buy the dips. Trade if you want. But FCX under $10 is a bargain for the future
its an option that must be on the table. It could prove the least toxic of the poisons they must consider to relieve the debt burden. But, the recent asset sales have proven to be valued highly by the buyers. It puts a spotlight on the quality of FCX assets. Too, the recent run up in the stock would make another equity offering more attractive than it might have been a month ago. Another $4 BB is the magic number for FCX
Rig counts collapsing weekly. Near record low. Gas demand going up with major coal fired utilities converting at the rate of 1.5 per month. OK, the weather is warn today. Gas demand is going up, supply is getting aligned, and exports are just starting as well. And if you think there is no future in that --- check the spread between US nat gas and ASian and Euro nat gas.
this is the junction for north and south. UP or down. THe bets are on the table and even the recent volume suggests strong hands in both directions. Long and SHort. WIth a low of $3+ and a 52 week high of $23 and up over double in just a month it is a traders pick right now. Shorts would play this in the belief that FCX cannot dig out from its debt pile and that its current market cap exceeds the discounted value of its future profits. IT would mean commodities will not rally. It would imply that asset sales would not extend life and health. It would suggest that supply will continue to exceed demand -- in spite of all the CapEx cutbacks.
My bet is that is a bad bet. I have taken long bets on both the common as well as long calls. Too much supply coming off the markets in all phases of energy and metals. Supply is being curtailed and consolidation of companies is happening before our very eyes. Investors must look at what is happening to understand what the future is going to look like. The shift has already happened but the price models have yet to fully respond. But it is happening as well. Look at the daily volume. Look at the long and short positions. Look at the futures prices growing. Look at things like rig count. Capex. Real output. And look at expected demand. Look at infrastructure needs that wont go away. ANd look at where prices are now. Multi year lows. WHere do things go from here ? We already have the answer. Near term pricing needs to be ignored and traded. Long term value need to be bought NOW. There is no bigger industry play right now than metals and carbon
cyclical means they run in cycles. If the demand is there for the commodity, and it is, and if supply is coming down, and it is, then there is only one direction for the price model. And that is UP
commodities bounced off multi year lows. Producers have cut CapEx like never in the history of the industry. Current supply is high across the board, but coming down. And fast. Last weeks jobs report and recent US growth numbers suggest demand is in tact. ANd commodities responded. Add to that an abundance of short positions in both commodities and stocks and you have a recipe for a wild ride.
THe market completely dismissed the big inventory build on oil. Gold is suggesting more strength in the economy than what is apparent. And copper has rebounded nicely. Watch Nat Gas now especially if manufacturing comes in stronger than expected. We will be off to the races.
Way too many factors spelling BULL to be short this market. Not the least of which is the multi year low position of most commodities. China drove this in to the ditch. Western company economics appears to have gotten it out. And here we go !
right on highest. good post. there is a lot of room to grow for FCX. 3 factors will drive the stock and the combination in tandem will be quite electric.
1) the debt paydown via reasonable asset sales is a big boost of confidence in the long term survival of FCX
2) that confidence is already translating in to a higher valuation as it should --
3) higher commodity prices are the jet fuel for all of this
And we are in fact seeing the results of all of this at once. And it is only the beginning. As you state, FCX is already salivating on the prospects of an additional $1 BB. That number can easily multiply with a spike in commodities -- which I believe is happening. ANd finally, a higher valuation multiple will be assigned to FCX given improving metrics. THus, we will see a compounding effect that could see FCX back in to the $20's later this year.
Remember, at the peak of the market just 20 months ago, FCX had $500 BB (that's half a $trillion) in proven and probable commodities in the ground. A remarkable treasure chest of future assets to tap for 20+ years in to the future. Better days are upon us at last I do believe.
good posts today neily. you are spot on. Lots of tailwinds for FCX right now. Debt coming down with easy asset sales at favorable prices. Commodity prices going UP. And overall sentiment finally shifting. There is a LOT of room to run here. THe sale a couple of weeks ago for $1 BB really highlighted the value the industry places on the assets verses Wall Street. Its catch up time now as the reality of the valuations gets fixed as well as fundamentals getting adjusted as the supply curve tightens. I agree with you FCX could well be in the $20's by year end. And I too am very greatful for my last anguished purchases in the $3's
right on. Gold is telling the world that there might be some signs of life out there, or maybe some signals of some inflation even. Demand appears to be healthy and all the commodities are responding. That in turn will drive FCX just like this.
FCX has some of the best assets in existence in copper and in gold and it holds some very nice GOM assets as well. This latest lift in commodities benefits FCX as well as any company out there
no one is suggesting to go the other extreme . . . . speculative internet play. That is not a fair comparison to what is ailing the stock. Ensuring that a crash doesn't happen by consuming stock with cash is hardly an enticing game plan for investors. And that is what we have. Things have changed since all that. And that is good. So its time to move on to more ambitious goals than just beating the clock
Weeks has created a game plan for Corning that Is a clear and consistent loser to the marketplace. He is in charge and dictates the same tired play, and it leaves everyone flat. And he will not change the plan. The recent 6 cent hike in the dividend was another miss. It left the yield below 3% and there is nothing appealing for future investors if the price were to rise. At $25, it would be a yield barely over 2%. Compare that to CMI, GE, UTX, MMM, EMR, etc all well over 3%,many over 4%, and most with higher PE's and more towards their 52 week highs.
So many metrics to compare to. The only reason to invest in Corning is to speculate on its low valuation. And it is low for many good reasons. Bad leaders make bad game plans which lead to bad stock