Morgan Stanley sees gold and copper going UP later this year. Goldman Sachs sees Gold and silver coming down still more later this year. And the marketplace, no clue. Look at where all the commodities have been in the last 6 months. All the greatest forecasters on the planet have been wrong -- big time. So how much faith should we have in the next prognostications ? not much.
Oil is down 50% on a less than 5% supply overhang. Demand is actually UP over last year, just not as much as forecasted. Oil, like clockwork, has grown in demand nearly 1 MM bpd for the last 15 years running to todays 94 MM bpd.
My belief is that the major price swings in commodities are driven largely by large hedge funds moving their positions around aggravating small moves in to large ones in vast momentum trades. No one wants to be the last seller so they all get out (and IN) at once. My belief is still that investors need to look at this as one of 2 things.
1) the world is indeed crashing and all commodities are giving us a glimpse in to a grim future --- there is some case to be made from that --- except physical assets (Like commodities) get some play in those situations
2) the other is that the whipsaw of trading activity is taking place right now looking for a bottom from which traders will return to reap the large rewards created by buying at the bottom and riding it up and no one wants to be the last buyer.
I don't like Indonesia but I do like FCX at $20. Hang tough and see what management has in store for answers as they have weathered these types of storms before
this is not the plan that was in mind when all this was written up. A Mkt Cap of $20 BB with debt of nearly $20 BB on revenues of under $30 BB. Capex has to come down BIG TIME this year and lets hope that commodities get off the floor and that these oil and gas properties come up big
with SYF now up nearly $2 on the day, this equates to roughly 20 cents of GE's 40 cent rise. Both beats bode well for GE in the coming quarter as speculation on a new valuation must take place to account for the surge in SYF. It is real money and GE will spin this off for an unplanned for and unaccounted for windfall. With $25 BB or so coming from this, I'd personally love to see GE retire a massive chunk of shares and put greater equity back in to existing shareholders pockets that way
that is something. If you take the Mkt Cap from last Summer at say $35 BB is equals the prices paid for PLains and MMR. Means the original Freeport operations have no value to the market. Its not that straightforward, but you bring some interesting perspectives to the value of the acquisitions and the cost of the debts piled on to FCX.
You look at the litany of tough issues from EVERY single things they dig from the earth is at multi year lows to shareholder lawsuits to the fact that most of their revenue comes from what can arguably be one of the most hostile business environments on the planet (Indonesia) --- and its hard to get comfortable holding a lot of long stock (as I do)
THe Saudis are going to great lengths to tell the world that $100 oil days are over forever. AS holders of the most vast reserves on the planet, that is interesting talk to a marketplace from which they would like higher pricing. But that part of the story comes later.
What better way to entice high cost producers OUT but by the big dog saying high selling price days are over. They are basically telling the supply world that the gravy days are over in an effort to get them to throw in the towel. It would be against their interests to suggest prices will rebound. And facts of the matter are ---- who could know ? its a commodity. It goes up and it comes down --- in wild swings. Will it ever get over $100 ? Of course it will. God knows what that last barrel from our planet will be worth. But, for now, the Saudis are posturing with tough talk to get nervous suppliers OUT --- it puts them back in charge for the long term -- which is what they are looking at with this position
todays beat of 4 cents by SYF should help solidify SYF's near $30 stock price. Actually very healthy numbers they posted throughout their report. GE still owns 85% of the common. Each $1 price represents about $850 MM in asset sale value later this year to GE. Since this is nearly $7 over the IPO price its roughly $5 BB of added capital. Hoping SYF can inflate further as this report settles in as GE longs are on house money now for future valuation. Each dollar in SYF would translate to approx. 10 cents to GE common upon the sale
and only $2 BB of it is smelter related -- the other $15 BB is "normal" operations expenses to do what they do -- mine copper -- so its really a $2 BB investment to secure all that additional copper capacity. FCX did the math and will make it work -- so long as the rules don't keep changing, and they will
agreed --- central banks have committed to inflation. openly and willingly. Whether you are pro or con these money prints is not the debate. THe fact is that the very first thing that happens is a reaction by other currencies -- which is happening. The other is the raw materials that go in to all finished products get re-evaluated. And that is commodities. THe objective is to create real demand growth and that has been painfully slow. But creating cheap money has worked (kind of) and everything FCX mines and digs should get juiced by all this stimulus.
appreciate the response --- you look at the business and clearly it is in a pioneering growing industry. Is it leading edge ? Not even sure if it has to be if the market is big enough --- but there are so many questions and opinions on the state of their position in 1) tech leadership 2) market position 3) capacity and 4) growth prospects (ie - visibility).
that would be music to many investor ears. Indonesia is a bad place to have the biggest parts of your assets. Too unreliable and too uncertain.
will be interesting to see how long this Honeymoon lasts. No mention of any second Smelter. Nor any mention of contract extensions beyond 2020 which was all important to the investments from FCX. ANd how tight are contracts with Indonesia anyway ? Agreements seem to be the pretext for more negotiating and extorting. I can understand Indo wanting to maximize the value of their assets to their own country -- perhaps they should have some equity in FCX, but they undermine their business credibility with tough talk posturing and outright contempt with signed contracts. Thus, I think with so much of FCX's revenue streams tied to such a precarious cart, it will always carry a lighter PE multiple from Wall Street and greater volatility to its price
THe rub on GLW has been its lack of top line growth. IT sports high margins, low debt, and a diversified product line among its 5 business segments. And, it has hoards of cash that it has been using to repurchase shares. But, a good acquisition seems in order for them. Opinions on whether Corning would be a suiter for MXWL ? MXWL seems to need the direction of a bigger more global entity -- or not ? Cummins ? ? ?
MXWL lives in a niche that has yet to go to its intended and hyped place. The rapid descent from this years highs and managements inability to rekindle any enthusiasm from the investment world makes me wonder how long a sub $8 price tag the company will have
I hope Europe enjoys and utilizes this oil and gas tax holiday. They need it and the rest of the world needs them to get back in black. Russia supplies much of the EU with gas. And once again they are using it as a lever for control. Too, a bully Russia is now a desperate Russia, broke and angry --- not the kind of neighbor that inspires investment and spending ---
Cheap oil and gas is all the more reason for the EU to ratchet UP their spending on solar. Dollars have been freed up to do so. Oil and Gas WILL go up soon enough, dollars will be short, and options thin ---- history repeats all too often --- but cheap gas is not a problem to solar but actually should be a solution of sorts in that it has created options for a different future. Can you imagine the EU right now in its deep financial funk also dealing with $120 oil ? Its right around the corner if they don't prepare.
thanks for catching that --- 43.5 MM cfd. I think the revenue estimate is correct based on pre holiday readings --- so gas it is. DJ done would be a real bummer. So much promins and hype and investment. No doubt any big exploration CapEx would be off the table --- do you know how long they hold the lease
I agree that GE ought to be broken up and / or simply made smaller. THey could vastly reduce the share count (10 BB) with proceeds from sales to keep equity holders whole for the new smaller company. THe SYF sale coming in May is interesting as well. That IPO'd at $23. 1 BB shares and now its near $30. GE has booked $7 BB in paper profits --- and where is it in the stock price ? ?
Basically SYF appreciation is worth about 60 cents to GE stock. So shave another 60 ents off the current price without the SYF appreciation ---
began on Sept 7 2001. Stock price right near $40. Coming up on 15 years later, The stock price is nearly half what it was. You cant blame it all on Immelt, 9/11 and the Great Recession came in this reign, but most other companies, many of them direct peers, have long since rebounded and moved on to new highs . Its time for a change. If nothing else, the mere idea that the company will look to new leadership would spark life in to a stock that is a growing frustration to millions of stockholders around the globe. Its time !
someone correct me if Im off, but my accounting of the recent scores from FCX are
Highlander getting up and running at about $100 MM annually ( - depending on oil price used)
Holstein at $400 MM and up to $2 BB by 2020
Luscious at $700 MM annualized
total now on line as of December is $1.2 BB in first full year and $2.8 BB by 2020
left out are any developments on the all important Davey Jones projects. any insights on that ? ?
As an FCX long, we spent all of 2014 looking for good news -- and it was hard to come by. But at least these recent developments are some relief as they are a stream of revenue for the next 15 years +. You cant help but believe that with every commodity they mine being at multi year lows that better times must be ahead
way back in 2011 TOT bought its first stake in SPWR for $23.25 / share only to watch it crumble to less than $4 not long afterwards. "Way" back them SPWR part of an industry many thought was certain for bankruptcy. Part of an industry where 30 GW of installs was a milestone. Revenues were barely over $1 BB. Today, the plans thru 2018 are for SPWR to have capacity of 5GW, power storage in battery systems, new plant construction thru the next 3 years with panels offering 24% efficiency. Part of an industry pushing 100 GW of installs. A pipeline 8X its current capacity.
And yet, the stock price is little changed from the day TOT bought its stake. What has changed is considerable, both inside and outside of SPWR's walls. No one could say SPWR is the same company it was 4 years ago. No one can say the industry hasn't changed. And no one can say the environment for alternative power has stagnated.
As an investor, this is an inflection point of sorts. Clearly SPWR is a much larger company today with greater visibility and assets under its belt. Gone too is much of the speculation. It has matured past much of that. The value proposition has revealed that
1 costs do come down steadily,
2 the market has grown steadily
3 technology advances are changing the value thru efficiency and cost
4 the issues of pollution and resources have only intensified - link the oil collapse
5 the last major dig at solar was its inability to offer a complete solution at an affordable price.
So here we are --- the storage solution is the next breakthrough to this industry. And it will happen. And the plans SPWR has to leapfrog its capacity and technology forward have not yet been recalculated by Wall Street in my opinion. Today, SPWR is worth no more than the day TOT bought it. SPWR is hardly your Grandfathers GE ---
nice -- that would effectively make this closer to $2 MM per day with gas. $700 MM annualized. Add to this the Holstein and HIghlander news last month and production is ramping up. Not exactly the best timing in the world, but most of the cost of these projects was booked months ago when oil was at $110. Cant control that part of it. These projects are 20 - 30 year ventures. A lot of oil and gas and pricing to manage till then. But the key is to obtain revenue from tehse wells once they create costs --- and that is now happening --- no matter what ---- it beats a dry hole any day
thank for the info
sounds like you have some friends on deck. Thank you for the post. That is good news indeed. I believe FCX interest in this is 23% ? means revenue addition of 20,000 bbl X say $50 or $1.2 MM per day with the nat gas