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The Hershey Company Message Board

mullam4444 144 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 30, 2015 2:51 PM Member since: Oct 4, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Management needs Accountability here

    by hoboszmt Jul 29, 2015 9:44 AM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 30, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    you don't seem to like anyone challenging the company. No bashing here. I come armed with facts and educated opinion. As far as the dividend being above industry standards --- what industry are you talking about ? Look at UTX, MMM, GE, CMI. Their payout is much higher. Their yield is much higher. I sold a large long position last year and bought again in this downdraft. Sold for the same reasons I see going on today but bought based on the big pullback. But, nothing structurally different --- and that needs to change. You don't need to read my posts and I certainly don't need your advice

  • Reply to

    Management needs Accountability here

    by hoboszmt Jul 29, 2015 9:44 AM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 30, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    you are right. and I think management is feeling the heat. Flaws exit was likely the result of pressure given the very short time frame for his departure. It looks nice and was prettied up for the picture, but he took the bullet for this one. More bullets are going to be fired now at Weeks. It is his turn. And finally, the ridiculous BOD that has given a good old boy pass to all things insider friendly starting with the overly generous options packages. Corning is a flat our under performer despite its solid balance sheet. Accounting is NOT Cornings issue, its lack of growth and the questionable use of now $11 BB in cash. THey could have doubled the size of the company used other ways. COuld have doubled the dividend for a 5% yield. And many things in between --- but they chose to invest in buybacks that have proven to be squandered opportunities. THese buybacks will raise the price but at too high a cost. ITs like buying a car for a million dollars. You have a car, but you way overpaid for it. Corning is likely getting 50 cents on the invested dollar here where better use would more likely be like $1.50 on the invested dollar

  • Reply to

    GLW outperforms again!

    by highintellect Jul 23, 2015 5:32 PM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 24, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    if this board is representative of the typical investor, its little wonder why this thing is in the ditch. complete complacency and acceptance of a plan. never mind that it doesn't work, just tick to the plan, the leaders in place, and never complain.

    Like you, it is irritating watching this go no where and nothing ever changes -- even the attitude that its somehow OK. Its not OK -- thanks for being one of the few who dare to challenge

  • Reply to

    Any guesses on ARTX M&A activity?

    by leweslandingfisherman Jul 23, 2015 10:09 AM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 24, 2015 8:22 AM Flag

    right on. efficiency in operations is key. they need to get the bottom line UP. And that appears doable from the expense line as gross profits of 30% are adequate for a nice net return (if your expenses are aligned to revenue properly). ARTX is tantalizingly close to breaking out of this slump. You are correct regarding what would make this pop. Lift in revenues, consolidate costs t lift bottom line, repay some debt, and for gods sake don't issue any more shares. Accomplish that and ARTX with EPS of 35 cents would easily double from here.

  • ARTX priced below Book Value, 20% of the current price is cash on hand, sells at 8X forward earnings, has 30% Gross Margins.

    But, those 2% net margins are the killer to be sure. Screams for more volume to soak up the overhead that is apparent by such numbers. Get that volume up and good things will happen to the stock

  • mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 22, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    good post spec ---

  • With the recent $2 BB buyback announcement, Cornings revenues now eerily match the cumulative amount of cash spent buying back stock with about 1.25 BB shares in the tank. By 2016, $11 BB sunk in what is now a $24 BB stock. What might $9 in cash on the balance sheet look like ? Nearly half the company's value would be nothing but cash. Wow. How often do you see that in a company producing 25% net margins with little debt sitting on a 10 PE ? NEVER ! You can run the numbers any way you like, but its impossible to find the value of the BB's to date. Might it come in the future ? We had better hope so. Flaws quick departure did nothing to excite the markets. We need one more departure to create anticipation. Then, a new BOD, and maybe then . . . . .

  • mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 21, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    it'll happen. Gamesmanship is being played here. Not one of the OPEC countries can run their governments sustainably at $50 oil. And you are right --- there is a bottom in those oceans of oil --- so its important for them to maximize their revenues as selling Sand is a poor plan B. The Iran Nuke deal has altered things far larger than most Americans realize. It has destabilized what little sense of security was left among our ME allies in Saudi Arabia as well as Israel. This is SA flexing its muscles while the US has made a deal with the enemy. Once the pain among the OPEC members is great enough, SA will drag them to the table and spell out production quotas that will re-stabilize oil prices. Until then, they will play coy and act as if they can do this forever. All parties should know they cannot. This is a pure function of the Iran deal

  • state run enterprises that operate with no regard to economics or financials. Subsidized simply to produce and able to ell at whatever the market will accept in all their commodity industries. I know why they do it, to keep angry hungry mobs employed and out of Tianamen Square, but what a trainwreck to Global industries. Nearly 1 Billion workers and how many are simply kept on payrolls thru nothing more than subsidies. But its not sustainable. All those foreign reserves accumulated thru the 90's is burning away

  • Reply to

    Acquisition candiate

    by bullseyecatnip Jul 18, 2015 9:00 AM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 19, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    agree again. All the talk of infrastructure projects and needs from India, China, Europe, Africa, etc have yet to materialize. But, its not so much a demand deficit as a supply glut. ANd it is all a result of over investments made over the last 5 - 10 years.

    But -- that doesn't help investors right now --- that much is true. You cant bail now in my opinion --- have to ride this one out. It is now a long term play but I do believe that a bottom is near and it will be known when changes in ownership of companies begins

  • Reply to

    Acquisition candiate

    by bullseyecatnip Jul 18, 2015 9:00 AM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 18, 2015 6:32 PM Flag

    yes -- they are stuck between a rock and a heard spot. I don't see any way out of this one other than to simply plow thru it and get to the other side. Cant even sell it for any kind of money. But, Im sticking to my painful doctrine that a bottom is near for miners if for no other reason than future supply is so curtailed via the capex cuts. THe world is in glut mode and all this supply will burn off in time given the lack of reinvestment.

    As far as inflation --- I have no idea where it is amidst all the funny money and credit created ----

  • mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 18, 2015 6:24 PM Flag

    whatever. your lack of substance is clear heinylickt. Flaws & Weeks are lucky to have fools with undying devotion to any plan. And, I don't know why I respond to your nonsense, but your notion that the benefit of buybacks does not occur until well under way ? ? ? uhhhh, so after $9 BB in the hole, when does it get good ?
    adios

  • Reply to

    Acquisition candiate

    by bullseyecatnip Jul 18, 2015 9:00 AM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 18, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    I agree. On all your points. I too am mystified by a firm global economy with multiple years of Bull Market under its belt and commodity prices near where they were in the great recession.

    What is holding back consolidation is the mountains of debt most Miners have on their books. Several have more debt than exists in total market cap. But the day is coming. Most have little left in dividend cuts to make and ALL have cut CapEx big time. Not much else to do on the savings front. Next up --- Sell. But all of this assures the next cycle as future supply will be constrained across the board.

    My feeling is that FCX comfort zone to servicing debt is in the $12 BB range. Its cash flows would be sufficient to run the company without damaging future prospects. I hope the pending O & G spinoff can yield some mojo --- but I wonder how given the state of the markets. Its hold on time right now

  • intent on being a glass company. fair enough. But the other business assets are being held back by the weight and commodity nature of the glass business. They are the biggest and the most innovative, and glass has its place in the investment world. But there can be NO doubt among investors that Corning is an under achiever for investors. FOr all the R & D, for all the balance sheet heroics, for all the buy backs, etc etc. Its a dud of an investment. To be fair to investors, up to and including a sale or management restructuring, a spinoff of the 4 other business units would unleash those assets to appreciate on their own merits and not be weighed down by very different glass markets and business metrics.

    Bottom line --- change of game plan before these guys spend $50 BB to create a $30 BB company

  • Reply to

    Acquisition candiate

    by bullseyecatnip Jul 18, 2015 9:00 AM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 18, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    a bottom for the industry will be established when one of the larger Miners is acquired or merged. That will be the trigger for anyone on the sidelines to step in before assets in play are lost to the marketplace. I'll guarantee that all of these are on the radar screens of others. A bottom is out there and it will be established by a milestone event of sorts when someone steps in and announces an acquisition. It'll tell the world that homework has been done, risks have been taken, investments made --- because its too cheap to pass up. RIO and BHP seem likely acquirers given their size and scalability. But, even Private Equity could step in here and gobble up some of the many sub $20 BB assets now. Its gotten a little crazy now

  • Reply to

    Saudi's will hang by thier own petard

    by larry888adler Jul 17, 2015 11:06 AM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 18, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    you are spot on kurt. THis whole drama with Saudi Arabia comes straight from US dealings with Iran. The Saudi's, having clearly lost regional influence with the US and the world, are looking to get it back in the wake of a renewed and feared
    Iran. They are getting in front of the customer base with their oil to subdue inevitable Iranian efforts. And new Iranian oil money will be plowed in to new Iranian Nuclear interests as well as beefing up an antiquated Military machine. All bad news for the Saudi's. They have picked their poison and it is lower oil prices (for now). But this game is NOT sustainable --- it will, from the Saudi perspective, hopefully draw the OPEC members back to the board humbled and willing to play by the new rules set by a muscle flexing SA ---- just wait

  • mullam4444 by mullam4444 Jul 18, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    AA is not done buying end product companies. ITs just getting started -- and for good reason. Aluminum is a good commodity because its growing, but its also nearly impossible to make money in its raw commodity form given they compete against 3rd world countries tat produce with wreckless and unabated abandon. For 10 years now the metal has been in a slump despite its growth.

    But -- they use the raw material in their new finished goods. They have bought innovative non commodity high margin businesses. Organic growth of 9% per year coupled with future acquisitions will lift margins, profits, revenues, and the stock multiple for that matter. AA will not be a $10 stock forever given its new direction. The market still prices AA as a commodity Aluminum play. And, it doesn't like the debt load. But, these are changing and changing the company for the better.

    AA can ultimately earn 10% profitability on their revenues. THey can also be priced at a multiple of revenues verses the 0.50 today. Can trade at a multiple of Book Value. And can pay a respectable dividend. All in the future with these new plans. AA will see $40 in 5 years as the new realization catches up to new metrics applied to the old company

  • mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 18, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

    fair enough --- different routes getting to the top would be OK by me

  • mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 18, 2015 8:19 AM Flag

    1 - yes -- in spite of R&D efforts Corning is still not growing
    2 - yes - commodities are down - their input costs are down as a result. And their core business is a commodity

    a 2.5% return for buying back shares is absolutely ZERO justification to burn $9 BB in cash.
    finally, you envision another quarter of the shares retired (350 MM shares) -- so another $ 7 BB oughta do it ? So, $16 BB and that's the magic number ? That's not what Ilook for in an investment. But you've boiled it down in a way that should be very easy for Corning to meet your expectations

  • mullam4444 mullam4444 Jul 17, 2015 6:54 PM Flag

    so you are right and the rest of the investing world is wrong. congratulations on that. I suppose you want Corning to buy every share until you have the last one worth $20 BB ? And they'll have spent $100 BB doing it.

    Here is the problem with your argument. Investors buy stocks for either growth or income. Corning is doing neither. And they are not using valuable cash to position the company to do so. THey continue to buy their own stock -- one that is NOT growing and one that does NOT provide good income. Thus, they are bypassing better options to enhance shareholders by engorging on a no growth low income investment. They have the cash and are simply blowing the opportunity to substantially raise the distribution (say $1) or buy a major new asset ---

    For all that has been spent, the business of Corning is now valued at less than $10 --- and you profess that getting cash is a waste ? wow --- Ive never heard that argument before. You are in a class by yourself. You should look for Heinylickt ---

HSY
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