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The Hershey Company Message Board

mullam4444 132 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Oct 4, 2012
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  • Reply to


    by investprotect Dec 23, 2014 11:24 AM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 8 hours ago Flag

    I was roughing that in too and came up with a similar number. But, call it 3 cents per share annualized. THrow in a 15 Multiple, and its worth about 50 cents per share. But, after a year of nothing but setbacks and rumors that this was yet another expensive dry hole, this is a win. The team needed a positive, and this is one. Too, there is more upside to this later given that NG prices frankly have no where to go but up.

    This will add to earnings now and this will contribute to debt payments. All good now that it is recognized.. Good post -- thanks

  • Reply to

    its all in the volume

    by mullam4444 Dec 20, 2014 8:34 AM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 21, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    I would agree with that. This is ripe for an activist shareholder to step in and claim some board seats and demand changes or threaten a buyout. Private equity comes to mind given the distinct businesses under the umbrella. Several ways to "unlock" shareholder value and pay for a buyout --- by simply selling pieces. THe old adage of "the parts are worth more than the whole" would be the play. Too, an outright absorption by a larger company would allow for elimination of some significant payroll -- and not the typical back office / administrative ones you generally see.
    I could see several millions of dollars being saved on the salary side without skipping a beat --- and with $2 MM in profit, you'd be doubling or tripling net profit !

    Not saying that is what I would want for the company --- but its there --- and ARTX is a public company --- so its there

  • Rabat (AFP) - Morocco has raised more than $2 billion (1.7 billion euros) for the next phase of a huge solar energy project, officials said on Friday.

    The funds are being provided by international organisations including the World Bank and the European Investment Bank as part of a multi-billion-euro bid to help Morocco produce renewable energy.

    The first phase of the Noor 1 project is already under construction at a cost of 600 million euros in the southern desert city of Ouarzazate, and is due to begin operating in October 2015.

    Noor 1 will be the North African country's first solar energy plant, with a capacity to generate 160 megawatts.

    Construction of the second phase -- Noor 2 and Noor 3 -- is set to begin "within eight to 10 weeks" and last for around 30 months, said Mustapha Bakkoury, the head of Morocco's MASEN solar energy agency.

    He said a call for tenders had attracted seven firms, including from France, Spain and Saudi Arabia. The winner will be announced within days, he added.

  • mullam4444 by mullam4444 Dec 20, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    the problem holding back the company to me is simply volume. A couple of points here. WIth volume at just under $100 MM, you have gross margins of about 25% (not bad) but net margins of just about 2%. Operating margins about 4%. Ehrlich and Esses (not picking on them here) but their salaries represent a full 2% of the entire company revenues. Are both positions needed at the company ? ? ?

    IF ARTX could say double its volume to $200 MM, much of their cost structure would stay the same and margins would expand by a very healthy amount --- they simply don't have room with these types of margins for much error -- nor is there much profit. They do well with what they have, they just don't have enough of it.

    Ive never heard it even mentioned, but it would not be out of the question for them to go on a corporate diet and slim down to get those margins UP, profit UP, EPS up, and stock price UP. FInally, the stock buyback appears to mostly be to neutralize the impact of stock options. I'm open to that as a compensation means, but performance of some type needs to be part of the equation --- and I'm wondering where that is

    I'm long ARTX --- but I would like to see more headway on the operational lines as much of what I bought was belief in the product line and it having good opportunities ahead -- I'll accept that part of the risk

  • Reply to

    oil WILL go up

    by mullam4444 Dec 17, 2014 2:16 PM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 19, 2014 5:14 PM Flag

    interesting how quickly small production rigs are coming off line here in the states. coupled with the rather dramatic future CAPEX reduction announcements (many 10's of $Billions) just this month alone -- and the markets have seemingly found a resting place they are comfortable with for now. 10% bounce this week alone in virtually all things oil from the lows. I think we have seen the bottom -- or right near it. All that volatility and bounce screams bottom. So, 10% off the bottom, now with some confidence, would seem a good entry point. It wont take much for FCX to get back to $30. And lets not kid ourselves, there is inflation steeped in the central bank policies around the world that will in time leak in to the commodity world --- the yield pays you for your patience in waiting for capital appreciation

  • mullam4444 by mullam4444 Dec 17, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    in time. because it has to. Demand is predictable right around 94 MM bb/day. plus or minus 1 - 2 MM barrels does not constitute a 40% drop in oil prices. We are watching the Cold War re-enacted as oil has become a sanction of sorts against Putin and the Crimean and Syrian policies. Desperate players from Iran to Venezuela, and now Russia must sell the Family jewels to meet the monthly rents. The West (and our new buddies in Saudi Arabia) will diminish their influence by diminishing their purse.
    And it wont take long. Demand is the Key. And frankly, supply is a known factor as well at all points on the timeline. The end point is when barrel 2 Trillion is burned. At the current demand, we are looking at 65 years or so.

    Buy oil stocks and hand the certificates off to your grandkids. That last barrel of oil will be worth a fortune. This will likely be the last time any of us have a chance to buy stocks valued at $55 oil again

  • Reply to

    Another insider purchase...

    by paulywalnuts03 Dec 16, 2014 6:34 PM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 16, 2014 7:02 PM Flag

    nice catch. 550,000 shares between the two of them is some serious skin in the game. They cant trade on inside information, but they do buy when they see opportunities, who wouldn't. Clearly a good sign when insiders are buying large blocks

    Too, there is some significant developmental news out there ---- Davey Jones updates, asset sale updates, Highlander updates, ---- any good news on any of these fronts will go a long way to normalizing the issues dogging the company ---- and then we'll just be back to lousy commodity prices causing us heartburn

  • Reply to

    Pickens says oil going much lower

    by opti10mm Dec 16, 2014 2:15 PM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 16, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    there you go again --- making up facts. I sold most of my positions at $37+. Have been buying at sub $30 for the past few weeks. Stop interpreting my posts. Your consistency of inaccuracy is becoming annoyingly dependable

  • Reply to

    Pickens says oil going much lower

    by opti10mm Dec 16, 2014 2:15 PM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 16, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    bankruptcy ? seriously ? ? stop playing chicken little by taking individual points and turning them in to the entire story. There is so much more going on that you fail to see and you sum up information into you own clean inaccurate conclusions.

  • Reply to

    Pickens says oil going much lower

    by opti10mm Dec 16, 2014 2:15 PM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 16, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    demand is NOT 50% of what was expected. Global demand is near 94 MM barrels / day. It has not dropped to 47 MM barrels. Demand has been rising for the past 10 years at 1 - 3 % per year -- or, about 1 MM barrels per day. This year, Supply has jumped to about 96 + MM barrels and demand is below what was predicted,

    Maybe Boones Pickens said it, then its just more banter from a frustrated wildcatter. But it wasn't 2 weeks ago that Boones Pickens said he envisioned oil at $100 + as soon as next year. This is what makes oil such a speculative and wild commodity. There are no experts

    Part of the problem comes not from oil but storage -- where do you put 2 MM barrels (a day) in storage ? Answer : you don't -- you sell it to get it off the market --- and it goes cheap. THe overhang is not that great - a 5% overhang has caused a 50% drop in price ---

    facts need to be right

  • AA's stock price wont make sense day to day right now. Commodities have been crushed but AA was largely immunized by this -- and for good reason. AA is not a commodity company (anymore). THey are investing vast resources in to getting away from that business. To the extent that parts of the company benefit from lower Aluminum prices. They make now so many end products that low input costs vastly improve margins. Exactly according the script of the new plan.
    The Markets are behaving in a way that is quite disturbing to investors to prefer stability. Not going to get it right now. But, looking past the final month of 2014, AA has really restructured itself as a true growth industrial company. Steady growth, improved margins, technological leadership, and growing market shares will be the new future for AA. Buy the dips --- and get in when everyone wants out.

  • Reply to

    FCX actually GREEN!

    by mike.putzman Dec 16, 2014 10:04 AM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 16, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    use your ignore button on him. This board needs a full ignore list to be able to actually stomach participating on it. THe tough lesson for all LONGS on FCX now is to stick to a game plan until something material changes at FCX. Buy when everyone wants out takes special nerve. But that is how many is made

  • Reply to

    what copper players are doing

    by mullam4444 Dec 13, 2014 3:59 PM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 15, 2014 9:33 AM Flag

    sure --- OPEC did exactly what they said they would do. And, by OPEC, we basically mean Saudi Arabia. For them, it was the right thing to do. They have established customers and markets they sell volume to. Now, they have competition at a lower price. They lose a customer if they are the only ones to cut volume. They also lose valuable revenue, albeit on lower dollars. They are simply protecting their business -- and they are in the best shape to do so. Oil is a commodity -- and maintaining share (and your customer base) is an important part of managing the business when it goes south --- as commoditites do

    The markets are now speculating the complete other direction they were just 3 months ago. The sky is falling and predictions of $40 . . . . whatever cost oil. Maybe, maybe not. But it will not just impact FCX -- it will impact every player that produces oil. The oil markets will correct themselves -- not that I as a consumer like $100 oil, that is irrelevant. But the market place is already reacting to the price structure. The volatile swings right now are all about a 2 - 4 MM bpd overhang of 94 MM bpd demand. It is frankly NOT a major issue to fix in the oil world -- but the markets want no part of it. To me, this is the time to nibble on future price actions

  • FCX seems to have tapped in to something real in DJ, but its existence outstrips modern day technology to extract it. Its too deep to get to . . . But, if the reservoir is in fact real, its not going away. Technology will figure it out --- but at what price and when ? ? ? Interesting that neither SLB or HAL could punch thru it to this point. But, getting at it just got cheaper with all drilling players given the dearth of exploration projects coming in the next 5 years. Yes, its a $1+ Billion dollar hole in the ground right now, but FCX frankly doesn't need the gas right now, it just needs to know its there and figure out how to extract it -----
    The big question we would all like to know is ..... is it real ? and how far away (realistically) are we to actually tapping those reserves ? ? its a moving target . . . and it will keep speculators and investors interested and frustrated until we know for sure ---

    wildcatting at its best

  • Reply to

    China set to hit 14GW

    by bucketonickels Dec 11, 2014 8:21 AM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 13, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    China is battling a pollution issue that is unlike anyting else in the world. It is cutting life expectancy in some regions. Solar and Wind are a partial long term solution to that. Obvioulsy they are looking to curb imports of gas, coal, oil as well --- but clearly Demand is strong and it is with no regard to the price of oil. These are interesting times

  • Moffets purchase of $11 MM last week was a significant statement about where he is putting his bets. Obviously a strong bet to the future. But, a director for Southern Copper ( Mota ) has purchased over $60 MM of SCCO in the last months of this year. Leaders in the copper world have been deliberate of late stating that the future copper pricing is significantly higher. Too, FCX's increased processing fees show that demand now and in the future is strong enough for processors to demand (and get) a 15% increase in their fees.

    These recent purchases and agreements to higher fees is pretty significant news. We cant see it from the sidelines right now --- but insiders actions at 2 of the major players are signaling a different future then the one we are seeing right now

    Proof to my logic --- who saw and reacted to this recent plunge in the last 90 days --- anywhere in the entire carbon and metal world ? Look at Baker HUghs and Haliburton among others. Apache's aggressive purchases of Fracking opportunities. I sense some are seeing me as pumping FCX --- that is not my intention at all --- just my viewpoints to explain an incredible turn of events that seemingly defies a good explanation from the business world

  • Reply to

    what the market is telling us

    by mullam4444 Dec 12, 2014 3:43 PM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 13, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    agreed -- on Dec 4th FCX announced that it has increased the Holstein Deep well unrisked resource potential from 140 M boe to 250 M boe -- that is a nice incremental revenue stream that got NO press

    HIghlander wlll be key to future success among others. FCX risked a lot getting in to the O&G world. It doesn't look like such a good move now --- but oil is just another volatile commodity in their portfolio. If these wells produce it will vastly enhance shareholder value regardless of where the price of oil is in December 2014.

  • Reply to

    what the market is telling us

    by mullam4444 Dec 12, 2014 3:43 PM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 13, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    3% isn't my number. Go check GDP, GNP numbers. Go look at retail sales numbers. How does growth help copper (and other raw materials) ? Come on, you cant be serious. Yes, construction starts are weak, and that is keeping copper near $3. But China growth questions and frankly the huge Chinese inventory positions on Copper for Credit purposes is still unwinding. We are looking in to a window not even 90 days old. My premise is that the markets don't understand the data they are getting -- so uncertainty has created this rout. Is it overdone ? maybe. But fundamentally, nothing in the last 90 days when oil was $90 has changed in the world -- other than fear and direction. THe only question is how far it goes before it stops and works the other direction

  • Reply to

    what the market is telling us

    by mullam4444 Dec 12, 2014 3:43 PM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 13, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    show me where I quoted "it wouldn't drop below 30,29,28,27,26 . . . . .

  • Reply to

    what the market is telling us

    by mullam4444 Dec 12, 2014 3:43 PM
    mullam4444 mullam4444 Dec 12, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    good points for sure. Heres my take. OIl has gone from $110 to $57 in about 100 days - give or take. What do we know today that the world didnt know then ? ? ? AS sophisticated as the markets are ( I mean the entire market -- including drillers and such) all over the world, no one saw this coming. There was no "Lehman" event. No 911. Nothing. It just collapsed. Why ? ? There are several reasons, but there is no smoking gun. But what did happen was a momentum of selling that has not stopped.
    In my opinion, just as run ups take place, race downs take place. THis is an overshoot given the lack of news that brought it on. Demand is still there, and might likely pick up given economic outlooks and supply will certainly go down in the future given over $100 BB now in already announced CAPEX cutbacks. 92 MM barrels per day. A 2 MM / day overhang. It really wouldn't take a whole lot to correct that ---- stay strong here. We need to weather this storm and see what daylight brings us

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