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AXT Inc. Message Board

mulletman99 21 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 19 minutes ago Member since: Feb 1, 2008
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  • mulletman99 mulletman99 1 hour 19 minutes ago Flag

    "Does this mean they have to wait to officially sign a licensing deal until the P2 scans for BFPET come in? Or can they sign one for CardioPET and a separate for BFPET? Im not sure. That’s something I will ask management."

    I asked for clarification on this and got it. I misunderstood the 8k. They are only looking at licensing out CardioPET in China, Australia and Singapore right now. The interested party asked for a right of first refusal for both compounds, meaning if someone comes along and offers FPMI a deal, this company has the right to match or beat it. So, they dont have to wait.....a licensing deal for CardioPET could happen anytime.

  • mulletman99 mulletman99 3 hours ago Flag

    In addition, lets think about the market cap of this company. It currently sits at $7 million. Lets take a guess and say the deal brings in $5 million upfront cash plus future royalties for the rights to both compounds in China. This sets a price for both compounds IN CHINA (etc.) ONLY at $2.5mil each, or $5 mil total…....thats 70+% of the current value of the entire company......And only includes China, Australia and Singapore!!!!! (Think about the US market alone!!!). This is EXACTLY what we need……a way for investors to value this company. Because right now, we are the only pure play, public, cardiac molecular imaging agent company out there and no one really knows how to value the company outside of management and those deep in the industry. So, assuming this deal gets done with either 1 or both of the compounds, a value for the company can be set and the market will (hopefully) come to its senses with the valuation via the pps and adjust accordingly.

  • This is how I see it: they just announced that there is a VERY interested party wanting to do a licensing agreement specific to certain geographic areas (areas FPMI wouldn’t be able to get on their own anyway). This potential partner is obviously a VERY interested party.....interested enough to sign a BINDING term sheet. There is no money announced because they haven’t signed the licensing agreement yet. They signed a binding term sheet giving this company the 1st rights to license, pending due diligence.
    If you read what is in the announcement, its pretty clear. Because they want to also license BFPET, they extended the DD period long enough for them to be able to see some of the phase 2 images that will be coming over the next couple of months. From someone in the biotech industry, trust me when I say, companies NEED to see phase2 data to sign deals (partnerships, buyouts, licensing agreements, etc).

    What overall conclusion can be drawn from this?

    In my opinion, this potential partner likes what they see with the CardioPET scans enough to want to license the product. However, they have also seen the P1 BFPET scans and want to license that product, but risk management says they need to see phase 2 data first. So, what does a company do in this situation? They sign a binding term sheet giving them first rights to both compounds with a DD period long enough for them to be able to see the P2 scans from both compounds…..which is exactly what we have here.

    Does this mean they have to wait to officially sign a licensing deal until the P2 scans for BFPET come in? Or can they sign one for CardioPET and a separate for BFPET? Im not sure. That’s something I will ask management.

    This is a nice turn of events IMO. I think it represents a change in attitude, re: more of a willingness to share information. I don’t think they had to share this. I think they CHOSE to share this. And as a long term investor, I find it refreshing.

  • Reply to

    Last chance to buy in the $0.20s

    by mulletman99 Sep 17, 2015 1:54 PM
    mulletman99 mulletman99 Nov 24, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    A chance to buy in the teens was NOT what I had in mind when I wrote this post.

    Just wanted to make that clear.

  • Reply to

    The State of the Union Arrives - Part 1

    by onebarkmill Oct 23, 2015 8:40 AM
    mulletman99 mulletman99 Oct 28, 2015 10:47 AM Flag

    I think an important thing to note with respect partnership talks, is that these are unblinded data. Meaning FPMI has the scans, and can thus show anyone interested in a partnership.

    I guess my point this case, they really dont have to wait for the final P2 results are out to consider the product derisked. It really could happen any time.

  • Reply to

    The State of the Union Arrives - Part 1

    by onebarkmill Oct 23, 2015 8:40 AM
    mulletman99 mulletman99 Oct 26, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    The most important piece of this PR is the fact that they are in partnership discussions and the level of interest in partnering is increasing.

    As I have said previously, partners typically wait until the product is derisked to invest (whether via a partnership or a buyout). The "derisking phase" is considered by most in biotech/pharma land to be phase 2. If the data look good, the product is derisked. If the data are suspect, or major questions remain, the derisking occurs during a 2nd P2, in P3 or not at all. I have seen nothing to date that leaves me to believe that CardioPET wont be derisked once the full data are released. Thats when partnership interest turn into partnership offers.

    My investment thesis continues to hold true.....i.e., that they partner out CardioPET in some way (e.g., license out the rights in Europe or Asia) to bring in enough cash to fund operations so we dont have to rely on these on-demand financings. Dont get me wrong, I think they were positive for us shareholders in the fact that the company was able to try to ensure the new shareholders were long-term and strong holders and to try to limit dilution. But, I think (hope) the company agrees, the time for those types of financing are over. The balance sheet has scared away many new potential investors.....and nothing shores up a balance sheet like up front cash through a partnership. Giving up some rights (the use of CardiopET in Europe and/or Asia, etc.) could bring in enough cash to make the balance sheet a reason to buy instead of reason not to. My belief is that the good folks at FPMI feel the same way and this is where we are headed.

    Based on the letter, it looks like the scans/data, etc., are right now being prepared for the blind read by "qualified and experienced Nuclear Cardiology practitioners".

    Also and importantly "The Phase II trial for BFPET is now open for patient recruitment, and "All of the key components are in place to recruit the first subjects"

  • mulletman99 by mulletman99 Oct 16, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    Pretty good summary, IMO.

    I posted a comment to the article correcting a couple of inaccuracies, but overall pretty good.

    I like their comment on risk.....i.e., if there isnt news soon, the stock will slowly drip back down.

  • Reply to

    New investor deck 8K filed this morning

    by onebarkmill Oct 16, 2015 10:00 AM
    mulletman99 mulletman99 Oct 16, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    Nice addition at the end of the presentation:

    "Near Term Milestones:
    CardioPET Phase 2: Analysis underway from trial recently concluded"

  • Reply to

    Some quick thoughts

    by onebarkmill Oct 14, 2015 10:39 AM
    mulletman99 mulletman99 Oct 14, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    I assume Thijs is presenting tomorrow?

    I assumed the radiologists at MasGen were the ones doing the buying over the last 3 days after seeing the first scan for BFPET ;`)

    This consistently higher volume and taking out the blocks on the ask sure is refreshing. Lets keep it going!

    Time for news of the first HAS to be any day now.....

  • Reply to

    End of an Era

    by doctor_of_value Oct 2, 2015 9:31 AM
    mulletman99 mulletman99 Oct 2, 2015 11:57 AM Flag

    I am glad this era is behind us.

    Unfortunately, only those that actually read the SEC filings (those that own the stock) understand this.

    We need actual PRs for those that dont own the stock to give them reasons to buy.

    As I have stated, those should follow soon, but cant come soon enough, IMO.

    Its time.......LET'S GO!!!!!!!!

  • mulletman99 mulletman99 Sep 25, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    LMAO! like mulletman, MYT used to be one of those "politicopudpullers".

    BTW....Speeeeeeeeedy had a "strong sell" on BMY when I bought it below $20. Noone here should be listening to advice from Speeeeeeeedy, regarding investing......or dating for that matter (OH THE STORIES!!!!).

  • mulletman99 by mulletman99 Sep 24, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    ...........the last time we heard from management outside of SEC filings.

    I think its WAY WAY WAY past time for an update.

  • Lets think about it.
    - They just raised over $2mil.
    - They increased the note to $3mil, so IMO, its a safe bet that more is coming in
    - They owe the CRO for CardioPET $500k (see 10Q) - They raised enough to pay this. IMO, its safe to assume this has been paid with the $2mil raised and the data is in hand. We know they need a blind read of the results. There are 3 options here: a) this is already happening b) they are waiting for more $$$ from the note to start
    - BFPET P2 is set up and ready to go. I am betting that thet are enrolling and we will get an announcement soon. I have seen others guess that they are waiting for the first patient to be scanned.

    Based on the above, the news is about to start flowing, and so is the data. Data = attention, especially P2 data, which anyone who knows anything about biotech knows.....this is the de-risking stage. Companies that WANT to partner, will almost always wait until after P2 data.

    Once the CardioPET P2 data rolls in, there will be presentations, conferences, (analysts???) etc. This will bring some attention to the stock and get it out of the bargain-bin pricing territory.

    And while the final P2 data from CardioPET P2 is still being presented, we should start seeing initial P2 data from BFPET P2 in the form of scans, either from the company, or from MassGen at industry conferences. This should happen very quickly, since as I have said, there are a lot of fat people in Boston.

    This company is about to come out of the darkness. Before it entered this quiet period due to finances, the pps was in the $0.60s. I fully expect to see that again (at minimum) by years end. Thats only 3 1/2 months away.

    Its time folks. Here we go!

    Oh yeah......dont make me look stupid management......LETS GO ALREADY!!!!!

    All your own DD and think for yourselves.

  • Reply to

    Looks like there's some hidden supply at .25

    by cernade78 Sep 1, 2015 10:32 AM
    mulletman99 mulletman99 Sep 4, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    And now some not so hidden supply along with some hidden supply at $0.29. That 30k on the ask was there for 35k yesterday and remained at 35k even though someone was nibbling at it.
    I noticed some short activity going on here as well. I dont think they know what they are dealing with here.

  • Reply to

    Looks like there's some hidden supply at .25

    by cernade78 Sep 1, 2015 10:32 AM
    mulletman99 mulletman99 Sep 1, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    "NO sales".......LMFAO! Nature of the beast.....if you understand what type of company you are invested in here anyway.
    Very few (if any) microcap, early stage, biotech companies have

  • Reply to

    Looks like there's some hidden supply at .25

    by cernade78 Sep 1, 2015 10:32 AM
    mulletman99 mulletman99 Sep 1, 2015 2:10 PM Flag

    I dont think the method of raising money is what is driving the stock down. Take a look at the largest shareholders listed. See anything missing? Thats a LOT of shares on the downside, with such a low floater. How they managed to get out without causing even more damage is beyond me........if what I am seeing is true.

  • Reply to

    Looks like there's some hidden supply at .25

    by cernade78 Sep 1, 2015 10:32 AM
    mulletman99 mulletman99 Sep 1, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    Investing in ANY microcap comes with HIGH risk. What I know about this company, management, products, market, the reporting status, etc., significantly reduces the risk when compared to most microcaps......IMO.

    What about you joejoe? What aspects do you think are VERY high risk?

  • Reply to

    Looks like there's some hidden supply at .25

    by cernade78 Sep 1, 2015 10:32 AM
    mulletman99 mulletman99 Sep 1, 2015 10:47 AM Flag

    I bought more at $0.24 and $0.25. Not much in comparison to what I hold, but couldnt resist. Assuming we know everything there is to know, this is EXTREMELY undervalued and these prices are a gift.
    I do pretty extensive DD, so I am betting that I know everything there is to know.
    HIGH risk and VERY VERY HIGH reward here.

  • Seriously.........whats the delay now?

    Shareholders have suffered enough. Put out a damn PR.

  • Reply to

    MM NITE wont let it go

    by mulletman99 Aug 28, 2015 2:28 PM
    mulletman99 mulletman99 Aug 28, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    And how about that $60 trade at the EOD by NITE to being it down to a $0.30 close.

    C'mon Spoor and co., AT LEAST give is an update on progress. The SEC filings arent enough. Yes, we can keep up with the financials and GUESS what you do with the money you have and if you are still actively trying to raise money through the open note, but we shouldnt have to guess.

    For example: are you using the money to fund CardioPET P2 results? Will you be presenting them at a conference first, or releasing a PR? Are you spending the money on getting BFPET P2 going? Has enrollment started? If not, when? Aside from the obvious (getting results) what are you doing to get the word out on FPMI? Those little analyst reports from One Equity Research are cute and all, but we need REAL analyst coverage. What are you doing to attract that?

    C'MON ALREADY!!!! LETS GO!!!!!!!!!!!

2.45+0.01(+0.41%)1:38 PMEST