Right off the bat, I see that your assumed stock price with warrants is $25 and without warrants is $80. Since the warrants would give the Government 80% (79.9%) of the company, the "with" price should always be 1/5 of the "without" price, regardless of your estimated price.
Also; Though a favorable AIG verdict may cause a boost in investor confidence in the F&F case, it will have no effect on the outcome of the case. The Fairholme case will win or lose on its own merits.
If AIG wins, It sends a clear message that the Government doesn't get to violate the rights of private companies, with no regard for the law, just because they are the Government. An AIG victory should push this stock up to $6-8. If FNMA's court case can eliminate the sweep of all profits to the treasury and a release of FNMA from conservatorship, then FNMA will go to $20-30. If the court case also invalidates the Governments expired warrants, then the stock will go to $100-150.
MadTrader666 = Moron, NYCB is not invested in Greece. They are heavily invested in rent controlled apartments in New York. So, quit grabbing headlines and spinning them against NYCB.
It is not technically an admission of guilt, but it is often taken that way by the general public.
It would be risky for the government to do that, because then they would be admitting that they had done something wrong!
Good news from the AIG trial will only push this stock back to the $6-7 range.$20 - $30 will only happen when we win release from conservatorship. $100 to $150 can possibly happen after that if Government warrants are invalidated.
Why do you want free shares, when you believe them to eventually be worthless?
Logical, please don't sell during a run. You will regret it!!! If you have to just put stop limits a few cents behind the price and follow it up.
No judge has agreed with the Government, they just decided that they didn't have jurisdiction over the case. In fact, Lamberth said that the Governments actions should raise eyebrows, he just felt that his court didnt have the authority to challenge the Federal Government.
@Ireducs, I'm not a basher but I will take on this challenge just for fun. I pick FNMA(Fannie Mae) which closed at $2.75 on Friday the 13th. $11,150 gives me 4,054 shares. Let's see who wins!!!!
Mel "Moe" Watt is the HSIC (Head Stooge In Charge). His duties include bonks on the head, shots to the gut, and eye pokes. Basically, anything for a laugh from Obama, Geithner, and Lew.
On a positive note, 2 months ago Shelby would have screamed about shuttering the GSEs. Now he's asking how Government works to set them free. Looks like he wants credit for saving them, if it happens!
It will be a slow process, because the US Treasury will throw every obstacle, that it can, in the path of justice.