I shorted China stocks on Friday - hope their gambling Euphoria ends soon, it appears every person in china now owns stocks - the Chinese are known for gambling, I sold DRYs Friday because frankly the continual dilution was a risk I was no longer willing to take, if they hadn't done that I would still be on board, dilution has long term damage to PPS and limits the rebound price and the low volume is not conducive to pushing it over $1 which was why I got in at .735 in first place
280,000 shares at .735, I can make 20% daily swings in oil or gas , volume too low here for me to make what I need for the $1.5 million I lost which I need to get back - and I don't have the patience to wait it out here
based on prior announcements - this should be a plus to DRYs PPS
DryShips Inc. (DRYS US) rose 5.8 percent to $69.50. The shipping company may see its stock climb 25 percent in the next 18 months as the developing world imports more goods, Barron's reported, citing analysts.
however as they mothball more ships, and most new ships are redirected to tankers, the shipping rates will rebound nicely ,especially during spring harvest time - nothing happens overnight but the floor is been set for the rebound - just how soon and how fast is the real question be patient from here , bottoms are where profits are made not buying near tops when the macro issues are resolved yet - but they will soon IMHO
Longer Term. For the longer-term, however, we will stick with offshore drillers that are well positioned against the vagaries of day rate pricing. We recommend; Transocean Ltd., Seadrill Ltd., Pacific Drilling SA (PACD), North Atlantic Drilling (NADL), Noble Corp., Ocean RIG UDW (ORIG) and Atwood Oceanics (ATW).
this wont last long, strength is still quite evident right now for DRYs to go higher IMHO
Kem, this held up well today, whats your prognosis for the next week or two - are we going to go over $1
when momentum shifts , its usually violent moves either direction once the incremental base is formed and solidified - herds run with emotions, wont happen today but may in days, weeks, months ahead
the rates will rise much faster as the entire price of DRYs is all psychological based on key pts and for DRYs that psychological barrier that DRYs wont survive is now gone, its how slow or fast it will prosper in the coming periods - as a result the selling pressures will be gone and the buying pressures going forwards will roll in
surprising in a recovering sector - DRYs is levered to maximize the most from the recovery more then any other shipper as it was hit the hardest as well - that's how the dynamics works every time be patient
incremental steps build eventually in bigger moves up as the base is solidified and we get closer and closer to $1 the volumes and sentiment can move this much higher later on
big question can it break the $1.0 barrier and can it sustain that level towards the $1.25 major resistance area - that might require fresh much larger increases in BDI to be able to attempt the $1.50 target which is the short term goal of longs
can DRYs restore confidence now that rates have bottomed and the momentum is on the upside - for those that can hang tough for a few months until harvest season is in full swing where rates will be at its highest level during the year $1.90 to $2.45 may not be out of the question after that there has to be significant recovery in world economies for anything more
once the sentiment and psychology that DRYs will not only survive but thrive - much better days will be ahead
how we get there is the BIG question
once the spring grain harvest begins, it should create conditions for a small but significant rally that could drive rates back to normality
furthermore shipping is plagued by boom and bust cycles - with mini boom cycles coming out of bust cycles - if you can catch the mini swing back up cycle - that's where the biggest multiplier gains can occur for DRYs - the spring harvest cycle could be the set up for the swing back up if it can build momentum
spring is already here so let this thing run for a change and see where it go - the higher lows and higher highs each day looks promising - nothings for certain but wallstreet has always been forward looking and will start price in a rebound 6 months ahead before the rise in price becomes too certain - if normal rats resurfaces in next few weeks - it could be a nice run % wise
the supply demand equation is what will push shares up as its all psychology when people think it has hit bottom and is on its way back up - we may be at that point where its always buying on any dips here
While the dry bulk handysize, supramax and to a lesser extent panamaxes were slowly improving for a couple of weeks now, capesize vessels are kept on a freight declining route; only this week capes bounced from a low of 357 points to 423 points in a matter of two days, generating suspense for the coming week whether the freight rates will keep moving higher.