He should do a shelf offering at 10. Might get enough interest to fund development of some drugs.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
It just dawned on me that over the last few month the CEO has been providing investors with progress udates via investor conferences and interviews as opposed to press releases. I think this has had the effect of blunting the volatility. Buy the rumor/sell the news doesn't work if you have to put a little effort into finding the newsworthy tidbits. I think this is good and reflects a notch of maturity. Putting out PRs feeds the short and momo thrill seekers that sit in front of the CNN tube and their RSS robot feeds.
I think there *may* have been a better response at higher dosage. With N you can count on one hand who knows? The problem I see is that there's too much at stake with DMD to risk giving 6002 to someone that ends up dying. And Sebelius hasn't learned the lesson in chapter one of Carnegie's book; "If you want to gather honey, don't kick over the bee hive". Sebelius demanded that SiGA turn over registration batches for nothing, claiming that the API was paid for in the development contract. USG had a chance to have a supply of drug if they really wanted it. They still do and I don't think the terms are really different but the loss of inertia carries a cost to get things moving again.
I'm out. I just trade the channel these days. I don't have an axe to grind. BCRX got screwed by Sebelius. I think pami works but USG thinks they can get it whenever they need it so there's no need to stockpile. I dont think the obama administration cares about biosecurity unless they can spin something to make them look good or provide a distraction. As for the gout drug I haven't really even looked at it. Maybe if my big toe starts hurting I'll take a look at it.
They have given CMX001 to hundreds if not thousands of people. Some of them were really sick, so this has to factor heavily in their decision. I think they have plenty of drug on hand.
I can't help but wonder what happens to CMRX stock price if the patient dies. SRPT would have the same problem only worse.
They have completed several phase 2/3 trials. What I mean is that they seem to be casting for a wider or more lucrative application rather than focusing on one and getting it to market. Take a look at the warning on Vistide (the active metabolite): IN ANIMAL STUDIES CIDOFOVIR WAS CARCINOGENIC, TERATOGENIC AND CAUSED HYPOSPERMIA. The effectiveness of this drug has to be weighed against its potential for harm. So IF it's effective as you point out it would be a good application; i.e. pick your poison. They have a BARDA development contract for smallpox and if it works against ebola it would fit their bill as a broad spectrum antiviral. Another barrier the drug has is that it's not bioavailable in rhesus monkeys so they have to use cidofovir as a surrogate in NHP's.
I did pretty exhaustive search looking for evidence that the drug would work against filovirus. I even got a response on the CMRX message board, but searching the terms in the reply got me nowhere. My opinion is that they would try anything to get their share price up for a shelf offering. Since any work on efficacy would require BSL4 , correspondence with the CDC and NIH offering to develop a testing strategy isn't sufficient for my interest. I took a day trade long on CMRX at the open but I wouldn't invest in the company at this point. Their drug has been used with some success in many kinds of viral infection, especially in immunocompromized patients. But they aren't gertting much traction, i.e. no NDA. I think a major hurdle for their drug is mutagenicity. It is a prodrug metabolized to cidofovir intracellularly. Most of their work has focused on dsDNA virus.
So would it be worth a 12 week wait? It would look really bad if they had a big mutiny.
supply and demand have been equal for 2 milliion shares. 3.5 million shares with a close of 11.88. I predict large sell on close volume.
contract. Government employees have access to information before it's public. "It's the lure of easy money".