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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

my2cows 123 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Aug 7, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Some ludicrous numbers:

    by mspieks May 24, 2015 10:10 PM

    This is where Hession has really failed (besides drilling of coarse). He is strongly hinting at 10TCF, but not willing to put the companies numbers on the recert.... Not surprisingly however they are willing to talk about 17TCF when the most important info isn't commented on. Well Communication and what the company believes the recert amount will be.

  • Reply to

    Some ludicrous numbers:

    by mspieks May 24, 2015 10:10 PM

    2.25 Billion @ 10TCF from total.... plus 200 million cash on hand at the time of payment.

    That leaves 3.7 TCF in retained interest,

    That retained interest and everything else is trading at a negative value. Interoil trading with a 2.3 Billion dollar market cap would mean the market is valuing the retained interest at -.01 cents per mcf.... and With NO value attributed to Triceratops' 300 bcf's, Raptor, Bobcat and Wahoo.

  • Reply to

    Sounds like 10-12 tcf's

    by bullrush107 May 12, 2015 9:50 AM
    my2cows my2cows May 12, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    Notice Hession stated Multi-train? Between Tri and Elk/Ant we could be looking at 12-15TCF..

  • Reply to

    Q1 CC takeaways

    by valuesleuth May 12, 2015 8:37 AM
    my2cows my2cows May 12, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    4 to 6 months after antelope 6, and for some unknown and unexplained reason they Hession prioritized Triceratops and Wahoo ahead of Antelope-6.

    I'm really missing something on the order of importance. Why any wells before Antelope 6, and why Triceratops (that MAY have tie-back) prior to Bobcat which flowed liquids to the surface and that in the last CC Hession stated "has the potential to really move the needle".

  • Reply to

    Wahoo seems to be a big uncertainty.

    by reality_gerald May 12, 2015 9:13 AM
    my2cows my2cows May 12, 2015 9:18 AM Flag

    What gave you that impression?

  • my2cows my2cows May 12, 2015 6:49 AM Flag

    Hopefully they have more info on the call. We've had 14 more days of testing than that chart shows. Interesting that they are going back to Tri before Ant-6. Glad to see Wahoo is setup and ready to sidetrack with a larger BOP as well.

  • Reply to

    NBL buys ROSE 30% premium.......

    by reality_gerald May 11, 2015 9:21 AM
    my2cows my2cows May 11, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    There isn't a shale company in the US I would invest in at this point. The economics don't work, hence the reason they are all saddled with massive debt and most if not all are running negative cash flows.

  • Reply to

    NBL buys ROSE 30% premium.......

    by reality_gerald May 11, 2015 9:21 AM
    my2cows my2cows May 11, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    That's actually pretty good for a company with 1.8 Billion dollars in debt and negative 530 million in cash flows.

    That's a bet on gas/oil being higher.... not that the company as it operates is worth close to that now.

  • Reply to

    More Buyout Rumors Circulating

    by reuben.kincaid May 8, 2015 10:03 PM
    my2cows my2cows May 11, 2015 8:34 AM Flag

    Seems like every weekend for the last month someone on this message board is circulating this rumor on Friday's. Have no idea what purpose it serves.

  • Reply to

    Any predictions for tomorrows earnings?

    by reality_gerald May 11, 2015 8:17 AM
    my2cows my2cows May 11, 2015 8:33 AM Flag

    Nothing about takeover rumors, Hopefully we get confirmation on connectivity.

  • Reply to

    Big Volume

    by bullrush107 May 7, 2015 10:11 AM
    my2cows my2cows May 7, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    PNG Industry news is reporting that Total S.A. could be about to make a bid.

  • Reply to

    I just gotta say

    by bonkthegrups Apr 27, 2015 5:08 PM
    my2cows my2cows Apr 28, 2015 10:07 AM Flag

    I think Phil's estimates on Tri were pre drill and after it got drilled and we knew we didn't have as high of porosity... he got very quite on Tri.

    "All I am saying is "don't get carried away" by Hession's comments."

    I agree there, and there certainly is several additional wells to drill to prove it up but all I'm saying is those fields which have been drilled and confirmed NG in... cannot be considered fairy dust. And for the love of Gawd, can we get on to drilling already. It's crazy we cannot get the proper rigs and operators out there.

  • Reply to

    I just gotta say

    by bonkthegrups Apr 27, 2015 5:08 PM
    my2cows my2cows Apr 28, 2015 7:32 AM Flag

    "Now Hession is proclaiming that they have 17 t's"... They have drilled all the fields they are claiming the 17tcf from.

  • Antelope flow testing starts
    Prime Minister visits operation

    Singapore and Port Moresby, April 27, 2015: InterOil Corporation (NYSE: IOC; POMSoX: IOC) has begun flow testing at the Elk-Antelope gas field in Papua New Guinea as part of the field appraisal.

    Papua New Guinea Prime Minister the Honorable Peter O’Neill and the Minister for Department of Petroleum and Energy the Honorable Nixon Duban today visited the Antelope-5 well site in the Gulf Province to see the operation and to be briefed on the Elk-Antelope LNG Project, a joint venture of InterOil, Total of France, and Oil Search.

    InterOil Chief Executive Dr Michael Hession, Total Managing Director in Papua New Guinea Philippe Blanchard, and Oil Search Managing Director Peter Botten accompanied Prime Minister O’Neill and Minister Duban.

    The Antelope-5 flow rate is constrained by reservoir engineers to a maximum test rate of about 70 million standard cubic feet a day.

    Dr Hession said pressure gauges are planned to be placed in the field to monitor the pressure response during an extended test of Antelope-5.

  • Reply to

    Everyone has an opinion. No lessons learned?

    by mspieks Apr 24, 2015 4:13 PM
    my2cows my2cows Apr 25, 2015 5:28 AM Flag

    I think it's worth total cash + retained interest at 60 cents/mcf + PRE implied valuation. I'm all in at 44, and can buy all I wanted at 50/sh because the market is incorrectly valuing. If you think it's "worth" what it's trading at you should sell.

  • Reply to

    Everyone has an opinion. No lessons learned?

    by mspieks Apr 24, 2015 4:13 PM
    my2cows my2cows Apr 24, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    In fact that's why you're still invested... you believe it's WORTH more than it's being valued by the market. If you ever believe the market is valuing it equal or more than it's WORTH... that's the time to sell.

  • Reply to

    Everyone has an opinion. No lessons learned?

    by mspieks Apr 24, 2015 4:13 PM
    my2cows my2cows Apr 24, 2015 7:04 PM Flag

    With all due respect, it's not "worth" 50... the market is valuing it at 50. Those are two completely different things and the market imho is incredibly wrong VALUING Interoil at 50 per share. That difference is why one would invest in Interoil.

  • Reply to

    "fairy dust" worth 1-1.5 Billion

    by my2cows Apr 24, 2015 12:19 PM
    my2cows my2cows Apr 24, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    Further....I'm not getting back into Phil's BS. Hession states Tri is at 1tcf, and COULD prove up to 2-3tcf. We've hit 5 fields, assuming each only has 3tcf with the drill bit in the field and seismic I don't think is a stretch.

    The REAL value of 17TCF@ 60 cents/mcf or 8 BILLION dollars will not be realized for 2-3 years and 12 more wells drilled.... but I can tell you for sure. The value of fields which have been drilled, and have seismic on them is not ZERO as Mikesioc states.

    Anyway....Have a great weekend. Glad we're back in the 50's and showing a lot of relative strength. But short term moves aren't my call... The assets will eventually buy me that porche I do have an eye on! LOL!

  • Reply to

    "fairy dust" worth 1-1.5 Billion

    by my2cows Apr 24, 2015 12:19 PM
    my2cows my2cows Apr 24, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    PRE is not selling anything out of PRL-15. Bobcat has been declared and discovery as well, as has raptor...but nothing has been proven up with any certainty outside of PRL-15. A lot of the value in assets outside of PRL-15 is exactly the "fairy dust" (internal estimates of Hession and crew) mikesioc is speaking of. I don't see how you can have it both ways?

    Here your saying in HAS been converted to a PRL and IS recognized has a discovery.... but then turn around and say it has no value? I'm not saying it is going to be valued at $/mcf because it has not yet been proven up to get that type of value.... what I am saying is the PRE sale will give an implied minimum value of IOCs position in those assets.... and it won't be ZERO, as he states, also I believe the PRE sale will give IOC and implied value of 1-1.5 Billion in those assets. i.e. The "fairy dust", which has no value according to mikesioc.

  • Reply to

    "fairy dust" worth 1-1.5 Billion

    by my2cows Apr 24, 2015 12:19 PM
    my2cows my2cows Apr 24, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    and for the record prior to the PRE sale... I will be valuing IOC position outside of PRL-15 25% higher than whatever the PRE deal implies as 1) IOC is not in a distressed position and 2) It is the operator in this license area.

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