This is where Hession has really failed (besides drilling of coarse). He is strongly hinting at 10TCF, but not willing to put the companies numbers on the recert.... Not surprisingly however they are willing to talk about 17TCF when the most important info isn't commented on. Well Communication and what the company believes the recert amount will be.
2.25 Billion @ 10TCF from total.... plus 200 million cash on hand at the time of payment.
That leaves 3.7 TCF in retained interest,
That retained interest and everything else is trading at a negative value. Interoil trading with a 2.3 Billion dollar market cap would mean the market is valuing the retained interest at -.01 cents per mcf.... and With NO value attributed to Triceratops' 300 bcf's, Raptor, Bobcat and Wahoo.
4 to 6 months after antelope 6, and for some unknown and unexplained reason they Hession prioritized Triceratops and Wahoo ahead of Antelope-6.
I'm really missing something on the order of importance. Why any wells before Antelope 6, and why Triceratops (that MAY have tie-back) prior to Bobcat which flowed liquids to the surface and that in the last CC Hession stated "has the potential to really move the needle".
Hopefully they have more info on the call. We've had 14 more days of testing than that chart shows. Interesting that they are going back to Tri before Ant-6. Glad to see Wahoo is setup and ready to sidetrack with a larger BOP as well.
There isn't a shale company in the US I would invest in at this point. The economics don't work, hence the reason they are all saddled with massive debt and most if not all are running negative cash flows.
That's actually pretty good for a company with 1.8 Billion dollars in debt and negative 530 million in cash flows.
That's a bet on gas/oil being higher.... not that the company as it operates is worth close to that now.
Seems like every weekend for the last month someone on this message board is circulating this rumor on Friday's. Have no idea what purpose it serves.
I think Phil's estimates on Tri were pre drill and after it got drilled and we knew we didn't have as high of porosity... he got very quite on Tri.
"All I am saying is "don't get carried away" by Hession's comments."
I agree there, and there certainly is several additional wells to drill to prove it up but all I'm saying is those fields which have been drilled and confirmed NG in... cannot be considered fairy dust. And for the love of Gawd, can we get on to drilling already. It's crazy we cannot get the proper rigs and operators out there.
Antelope flow testing starts
Prime Minister visits operation
Singapore and Port Moresby, April 27, 2015: InterOil Corporation (NYSE: IOC; POMSoX: IOC) has begun flow testing at the Elk-Antelope gas field in Papua New Guinea as part of the field appraisal.
Papua New Guinea Prime Minister the Honorable Peter O’Neill and the Minister for Department of Petroleum and Energy the Honorable Nixon Duban today visited the Antelope-5 well site in the Gulf Province to see the operation and to be briefed on the Elk-Antelope LNG Project, a joint venture of InterOil, Total of France, and Oil Search.
InterOil Chief Executive Dr Michael Hession, Total Managing Director in Papua New Guinea Philippe Blanchard, and Oil Search Managing Director Peter Botten accompanied Prime Minister O’Neill and Minister Duban.
The Antelope-5 flow rate is constrained by reservoir engineers to a maximum test rate of about 70 million standard cubic feet a day.
Dr Hession said pressure gauges are planned to be placed in the field to monitor the pressure response during an extended test of Antelope-5.
I think it's worth total cash + retained interest at 60 cents/mcf + PRE implied valuation. I'm all in at 44, and can buy all I wanted at 50/sh because the market is incorrectly valuing. If you think it's "worth" what it's trading at you should sell.
In fact that's why you're still invested... you believe it's WORTH more than it's being valued by the market. If you ever believe the market is valuing it equal or more than it's WORTH... that's the time to sell.
With all due respect, it's not "worth" 50... the market is valuing it at 50. Those are two completely different things and the market imho is incredibly wrong VALUING Interoil at 50 per share. That difference is why one would invest in Interoil.
Further....I'm not getting back into Phil's BS. Hession states Tri is at 1tcf, and COULD prove up to 2-3tcf. We've hit 5 fields, assuming each only has 3tcf with the drill bit in the field and seismic I don't think is a stretch.
The REAL value of 17TCF@ 60 cents/mcf or 8 BILLION dollars will not be realized for 2-3 years and 12 more wells drilled.... but I can tell you for sure. The value of fields which have been drilled, and have seismic on them is not ZERO as Mikesioc states.
Anyway....Have a great weekend. Glad we're back in the 50's and showing a lot of relative strength. But short term moves aren't my call... The assets will eventually buy me that porche I do have an eye on! LOL!
PRE is not selling anything out of PRL-15. Bobcat has been declared and discovery as well, as has raptor...but nothing has been proven up with any certainty outside of PRL-15. A lot of the value in assets outside of PRL-15 is exactly the "fairy dust" (internal estimates of Hession and crew) mikesioc is speaking of. I don't see how you can have it both ways?
Here your saying in HAS been converted to a PRL and IS recognized has a discovery.... but then turn around and say it has no value? I'm not saying it is going to be valued at $/mcf because it has not yet been proven up to get that type of value.... what I am saying is the PRE sale will give an implied minimum value of IOCs position in those assets.... and it won't be ZERO, as he states, also I believe the PRE sale will give IOC and implied value of 1-1.5 Billion in those assets. i.e. The "fairy dust", which has no value according to mikesioc.
and for the record prior to the PRE sale... I will be valuing IOC position outside of PRL-15 25% higher than whatever the PRE deal implies as 1) IOC is not in a distressed position and 2) It is the operator in this license area.