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Mallinckrodt Public Limited Company Message Board

my_honest_opinion 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 28, 2015 10:57 AM Member since: Nov 28, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Hedge Funds Owning SRNE

    by a_sky_pilot Aug 27, 2015 8:52 PM
    my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Aug 28, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    i think that holder list is stale and many have sold in the july run up.

    the good news is that they can come back, and i wouldn't be surprised if they're quietly accumulating the shares now - expecting big move on SRNE soon - LOTS of big time catalysts that could propel stock up to $40+. after all, CEO's $35 call options don't really make him any real $ unless stock's $40-50+ within 6 months!!!

  • Reply to

    CEO puts his $ where his mouth is

    by my_honest_opinion Aug 26, 2015 9:02 PM
    my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Aug 27, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    Here's the breakdown of what I think are SRNE's most valuable assets. Everyone should do their own work, but I think SRNE is worth $200+/share.

    FOUR P3 drugs addressing $13B mkt - est worth $5B+.
    Note $7B offer to buy Recepto for ONE P3 for a smaller mkt. SRNE should have either clinical data and/or partnership w/ major pharma. MANY large pharma tried to get these rights, but Henry was able to secure it.

    TNK assets - worth $2B+. This SRNE library has for next generation killer cells and is the secret lab from which Patrick Soon-Shiong(PSS) needs to take weapons for future indications. TNK library should be worth AT LEAST the same as NK or $2B+. Samsung planning to IPO their division for $7B and it's not as far along as SRNE's library.

    Cynviloq $1.3B deal with PSS - worth $1B+ present value)no more expenses/burn related to this asset.
    SRNE already got $100M and additional milestones worth another $600M on FDA submission/approval plus another $600M for rev milestones. Investors should know PSS bot Cynviloq not to gamble $1.3B but because he KNOWS the drug inside out. Cynviloq has been approved outside US for a long time, and PSS did comparisons with this drug during Abraxane trials. Further, PSS knows the P3 BE data, and many believe Cyviloq is SUPERIOR to Abraxane(which PSS sold to CELG for $7B), and that CELG will ultimately acquire the drug from PSS(how much? I think at least $5B, but that will go to PSS as SRNE will get "only" $1.3B, but SRNE spends zero add'l $ on Cynviloq - that's a VERY good deal - thanks Henry).

    NK equity - worth $140M,for stake in NK. This is worth $130M currently or nearly $3.50/share. If this value is recognized with SRNE, the board could distribute the shares to SRNE shareholders for add'l liquidity/value.

    Cash - over $100M+ and $3/month burn, will last A LONG TIME and no need to raise $.

    If I'm right, SRNE is worth $8B+ or $200+/share...now you know why i didn't sell SRNE at $26 & why insiders keep buying.

  • my_honest_opinion by my_honest_opinion Aug 26, 2015 9:02 PM Flag

    not only 8888 shares bot by CEO the past week, but here's more.
    i've NEVER seen a CEO place this type of bullish bet before:

    http://insideri.com/1470981_000089924315004075_0000899243-15-004075

  • my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Aug 25, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    gd to see u mikey.
    hope u stay this time for the buyout as i think MNK would go for $160+ and still be super accretive for the buyer.
    the last conf call was sandbagging, imho, and i still think 2016 EPS will be closer to $10+...so waaaay to cheap for $10B biopharma co at sub 10x p/e.

  • my_honest_opinion by my_honest_opinion Aug 20, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    Got some new data points.

    Feel VERY comfy w/ MNK going into 2016.
    Imho, MNK at $90 is like QCOR last year when it traded at $40 & 10x p/e before hitting $100+.
    Bottom line, too cheap at this price and i expect major catalysts coming up - both internal and external.

  • Reply to

    Big Picture simplified

    by paris1785 Aug 18, 2015 2:14 PM
    my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Aug 19, 2015 8:48 PM Flag

    +1 :)

  • my_honest_opinion by my_honest_opinion Aug 18, 2015 10:41 AM Flag

    i recall last spring when QCOR pulled back and many funds sold the stock down 20% and all the shorts were pooping all over the stock. Oops - QCOR goes up 40% being acquired by MNK, and then goes up ANOTHER 50%+ after the deal closed. I'm not saying the same % gains will happen on MNK, but at sub-10x P/E, i can promise you that ALL the healthcare bankers on wall street are salivating and pitching MNK to larger pharma selling at 18 to 25x p/e as an easy ACCRETIVE target. Further, depending on buyer, they can save even more w/ the lower taxes due to MNK being domiciled in Irleand.
    Bottom line, many dummies have sold MNK the past week, but guys like Buffett always remind people do understand what they own and look at the cash flow. Me, I'm a fan of the growing cash flow and this is too good to pass up. Just a matter of time when MNK will be $160-200 stock, imho :)

  • my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Aug 14, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    been in SRNE since $5 and met Henry many times. have added to my position since meeting PSS also. it takes both smarts and patience to get 20-bagger, but i've done that many times in the past. you seem like a smart guy - email me if you'd like to chat.

  • my_honest_opinion by my_honest_opinion Jul 29, 2015 12:18 PM Flag

    i know there are lots of people who are feeling bad seeing SRNE down from the prior high last week and seeing this pullback isn't fun. however, similar to many of the prior pullbacks(i've been in this stock a long time), whether from $5 to $3 or $12 to $8, or even $26 to $19ish, when you look back later this year and the stock's at $30+, this will just be "noise."
    do your own work and know what you own - that's the best defense against thieves who try to steal shares from you w/ these drops. after all, i did my own work on QCOR and MNK, and it has taught me to value of not getting caught up in the noise - that's the only way to get 5 to 10-baggers.

  • Reply to

    pushing all the wrong buttons?

    by noquickgame Jul 28, 2015 2:53 PM
    my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Jul 29, 2015 12:13 PM Flag

    Einhorn also loaded up on Micron before the last drop...looks like he doesn't realize that he's the fool at the poker table. after all, if you take out his AAPL holdings(which anyone can own w/o paying him 20% profits), not sure he's added ANY value vs. just putting money in index fund or MNK :)

  • my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Jul 24, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    imho, bear raid already occurred and MNK will rally going into earnings as shorts (slowly) figure out the company will likely beat and guide up earnings again :)

  • Reply to

    You Want Catalysts??? SYN's Got Them In Spades

    by apollo1452 Jul 21, 2015 1:06 PM
    my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Jul 21, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    it's a #$%$ business, lol...and I LOVE IT :)

  • Reply to

    MNK fans - check SRNE

    by my_honest_opinion Jul 16, 2015 6:13 PM
    my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Jul 20, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    congrats to all those who are already on board.

    be sure to do your own work and watch the ipo roadshow of NK on youtube.

    imho, this stock could be $40-50+ for patient holders.

  • Reply to

    Top 10 IPO returns since 2001

    by a_sky_pilot Jul 18, 2015 6:29 AM
    my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Jul 18, 2015 9:36 PM Flag

    imho, first day performance is not that important. find the right company and you'll get an even higher return, i.e.. Tencent QCOR VIPS - many of these were 100-baggers that you could buy ALL DAY LONG.

  • Reply to

    THE NK IPO ROAD SHOW VIDEO

    by a_sky_pilot Jul 18, 2015 5:55 PM
    my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Jul 18, 2015 9:34 PM Flag

    yep, this is similar to the roadshow that PSS did at the IPO mtg Friday in SF, except that he is much more dynamic in person, plus there's another 10-15 minutes of Q&A with the fund mgrs.

    bottom line, this is a gigantic market cap to market opportunity story for NK, and since most IPO buyers will be shut out at the initial pricing, probably the best way to play NK might be to buy more SRNE. otherwise, just buy NK on the first trading day at $4-5B+ mkt cap, and watch it possibly go to $100-200B+ over time. Or...just buy SRNE now and you'll have a nice piece of NK.

  • Reply to

    Is Mikey shorting here?

    by kingfish_salmon Jul 15, 2015 10:47 AM
    my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Jul 17, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    mikey has ALWAYS said don't do what he does - he has his reasons/asset allocations, plus he is not always right(as he admits). everyone should do their own work, but imho, MNK is a $200+ stock in disguise(mini-VRX)...and the patient holder will be well rewarded :)

  • Reply to

    NK S1-A and Sorrento

    by my_honest_opinion Jul 16, 2015 5:59 PM
    my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Jul 17, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    glad you're involved.
    i don't give reco, but imho, if don't own any srne, just buy some to be involved and wait for pullback to add.
    my price tgt is $35-40+ s-term, but i think l-term it could be a $100+ stock.
    heading to SF IPO roadshow soon...good luck!

  • my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Jul 17, 2015 10:18 AM Flag

    the IPO is done and the roadshow is just a formality for people to meet PSS.
    NK already did 13 "practice" mtgs earlier and this is a tiny deal w/ good chunk of deal already spoke for, and probably a tiny float after all the big funds get their chunks.
    bottom line, this is meant for a coming out party for PSS for the world to know that PSS wants to be the biggest name in healthcare.

  • Reply to

    High Opening Volume

    by a_sky_pilot Jul 17, 2015 9:51 AM
    my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Jul 17, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    cramer is a bozo and is there for entertainment purposes.

    many people have made LOTS of $ doing opposite of what he says.

    however, at times cramer is in cahoots w/ his HF buddies, particularly on shorts, so be weary of any of this comments on stocks.

    bottom line, do your own work!!!

  • Reply to

    NK S1-A and Sorrento

    by my_honest_opinion Jul 16, 2015 5:59 PM
    my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Jul 16, 2015 7:56 PM Flag

    week of july 27th pricing, probably 28th pricing for 29th am trade.

MNK
82.78-1.59(-1.88%)Sep 3 4:01 PMEDT