was long ZIOP SRNE going into JPM week...been adding to position on pullback after my mtgs - think going to be BIG winners this year.
keep in mind, FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, the q&a/breakout for JPM has a separate webcast. congrats to all the ol' gang who's still around :)
#1, ceo is pedro and not a woman.
#2, you're not buying/hiring a spokesperson, but investing in the science/patents...those guys are not always so polished.
#3 AST going up is GREAT for BTX...more people will realize how undervalued the company is.
thx for the idea.
funny thing, i'm a BUYER of the calls - not seller.
w/ p/e this low, i've been a BUYER of out of money calls.
currently i own some jan 2016 $70 strike but it certainly makes sense to take some of that $ and roll it fwd.
my only regret on these 2016 calls is that i wish that i owned more!!!
everyone should do their own work, but time flies and it's already jan 2015.
imho, by the Fall of this year, investors/analysts will begin looking at 2016 calendar yr earnings.
although MNK estimates are currently $6.70 range for FY15(sept yr end), that # is likely to be beaten by a bunch - both from earnings upsides as well as from (hinted) accretive acquisitions.
therefore, by this Fall, i anticipate that the 2016 CALENDAR yr estimates will edge toward $10.
given that MNK p/e trading range has been from a low of 12 to as high as 25x P/E, i think it's reasonable to assume that the stock could hit 20x the $9-10 eps, or $180 to $200.
p.s. of course this assumes that MNK does not itself get acquired before then, but either way, i think all the shareholders will be happy.
as title says, it's a joke.
for those who have history w/ qcor, we remember the condo in seattle w/ a website claiming to destroy acthar pricing a few yrs back. turns out, there was NO credible mgmt, no office, no $, and they were asking for donations of used acthar gel vials so they could run their trials(is that even safe and who will be willing to be a patient for their experiment when Acthar is 60 yrs safe?) , lol.
heck, several people i knew contacted them offering vials, and NOT A SINGLE phone call or email returned.
further, these SF showcase headlines - THERE ARE NO MEETINGS WITH REAL PEOPLE...i've had many legit funds contact them, and NOBODY from biosim returns phone calls.
like i said, it's a JOKE - not a real company, and just meant to scare/steal $ from retail longs who sell MNK cheap...and helps smart $ acquire more stock at lower prices.
most smart $ say it'll take AT LEAST $100M and 5 years to run A-B trails to PROVE that a new product is both SAFER and...SUPERIOR to Acthar Gel before getting FDA approval - and that's before ANOTHER $100M to hire a proper salesforce. in addition, think about it, what kind of dummy is going to give biosim $200M+ to sell a product cheap(and get no return on investment)?
bottom line, sellers(MNK) beware!
YMB is dead, and too many paid bashers who are cluess - they did this on QCOR from $3 all the way to $88 when it was acquired by MNK.
bottom line, do your own work and ignore these paid bashers - this is yet another reason why YHOO biz is dead.
...see his 20% ownership, and how he is STILL adding.
now look who else is involved - former shire ceo just joined board this week.
2 former execs of questcor also joined earlier this year.
oh yea, their division AST went public and raised capital, just like they said it would.
finally, let's go back to largest holder - yes, the same guy who took qcor from 40 cents to $100+ :)
do you think these guys are adding because they like to lose money, or because they know LOTS of good stuff is on the horizon?
do you own work.
i've seen lots of paid bashers here on yahoo, so you can't trust anyone.
i say again, do your own work.
totally different company. different board, different mgmt, difference business/focus. this is a re-start, much like questcor at $3 - which btw, went to 40 cents, before getting to $100+ equivalent on the buyout. do your own work and read the company's info on their website and sec filings.
you guys have seen this before?
i've seen it(incl QCOR) for many years.
buyers want to buy lower, and retail holders w/ stops get triggered - and that's why stock drifts lower on light volume.
there's no "real" sellers - and buyers keep adding on dips.
going into JPM next month and mgmt reiterating 2015 EPS confidence, i sense many major accretive catalysts including imaging biz divestiture, hospital prod acquistions, and/or stock buyback.
bottom line, stock's had nice pullback here and perfect entry for those who are still not involved.
again, i'm not trading this for $1 or $2.
looking at 20x $7.50 eps or $150...or 15x $8+ eps as a minimum price target.
my $8 eps is based on MNK mgmt's history of being conservative on their guidance - just sept qtr along they beat eps by 20 cents+, that's just for one qtr.
reminder for most newbies that MNK's FY is sept, so even a sept qtr 2015...you need to shift one qtr to get the CALENDAR 2015 EPS to compare to SP500 (or other stocks) on equivalent PE.
imho, MNK can do $7.50+ in core biz just from rev/earnings upside from their portfolio, incl acthar.
further, i think they'll be making an accretitve acquisition soon, as well as divest imaging biz(and use cash to buy back stock and/or pay down debt - both add to EPS).
bottom line, for patient GROWTH holders(incl Paulson) who look out 18 months, MNK will make $10 range and i think this is a $180-200 stock in disguise as a $96 stock today. all this, of course, is assuming it DOES NOT get acquired in the mean time, in which case it can get to $160+ even sooner than i expect.
i've maintained all along that MNK would hit $100+, and then hit $120+, based on 15 x estimated 2015 EPS of $8+(my forecast).
one of the main reasons why MNK keeps going up is that it's a $11B mkt cap SP500 stock, and yet if you look at the top holders - MOST large funds still don't own it. as MNK continues the 52-week hi and outperforms SP500 YTD %, even at 2/3 the P/E, more and more funds will NEED to add MNK to buy list - and that's why it'll keep going even higher, until at least it's near SP500 mkt p/e of closer to 15-20x for the spec pharma group.
i wouldn't worry about Einhorn - he's a loudmouth and has made NO $ for investors in a long time, including w/ Lehman(loud but never made $ shorting). In fact, if you take out Einhorn's gains in AAPL, he probably lost money in most of qtrs. Bottom line, do you own work, and don't worry about him...I know guys who have asked about his MNK/QCOR short thesis, and Einhorn knows NOTHING.
ambulance chasers...these lawsuits never go anywhere, esp as the stock usually recovers and there's no real damage to shareholders (unless they sell and take a loss), and even then, unless there's intent to deceive that's PROVEN, just a bunch of lawyers using this to abuse/waste our legal system.
take it from someone who's been here for a LONG TIME...it's not about the sept qtr, but about the commentary going into 2015. there are MANY catalysts coming up that could boost eps and revs quite a bit, so it's really about whether MNK has the right/stable investors base vs. before. The difference this time is $10B+ mkt cap and SP500 stock vs. $3B and lots of little small cap funds/daytraders who were just trading for chart. in watching MNK, it's pretty obvious that LOTS of smart money own, but many still looking to add on weakness - thus why stock bounced pretty quickly from $85 on FDA news despite obvious news of # cut.
just my 2 cents, but lots of dummy shorts still here, and stock's going to $120+ for patient holders, so do your own work. i would hate to be the dummy who sold QCOR at $66 before the MNK acquisition. similarly, i'd hate to be the dummy who sells MNK on weakness right before a large cap pharma buys them for big premium.
Have you ever noticed that Mikey and Warren Buffett have never been seen together AT THE SAME TIME...kind of like Clark Kent and Superman?