Reading this thread while trying to deal with a wicked case of insomnia, I think I might have a third explanation for the recent run up. I've followed a few marginal stocks just for entertainment and seen the P&D in action a few times. You've got an illiquid stock with a story and in this case the timing is right so it fit's the profile. I believe a more modest run up before the big pump is part of the operation to prime the pump. IE: give the newsletters something to hang their hat on. I'm just speculating here but don't be surprised if longs make their nut the easy way on this one.
Looks like the Yahoo police deleted my previous post. Condensed version:
It takes most companies only a couple of months after the close of the year to get their audited financials out and that includes the time for the company to prepare them. Mathison feels "good about meeting the 6 month deadline"? Didn't he also feel good about meeting the original deadline and the extended deadline?
What is this gibberish about "onboarding" time fouling up signing D&T onboard as their auditor? I thought D&T already did a "forensic audit" and only needed to be crowned their official auditor to sign off? MDP doesn't need "onboarding" time?
Per my follow up to my first attempt, make sure you record this bull so you have evidence when this fraud disappears.
BTW, I'd record your conversations with Mathison so that when you lose everything and are looking for someone to sue you have plenty of evidence. You ain't gonna get jack from China but you might get something from the U.S. clowns.
Management believes that due to the small patient population and favorable comparison to the cost of traditional treatment, the insurance companies will pick up at least part of the tab for the clinical trials. I think they've already picked up the tab on the compassionate care cases.
If you are interested, "fundamental.value" is the alias that made some compelling posts about HART's potential including what he believes are realistic costs. He/She is a good read IMO.
Thank you, that was very helpful. You could very well be right about the short term however when you do the math on 8M shares outstanding and hundreds of millions per year in revenues "IF" they get FDA approval the upside is enormous even considering potential dilution.
I'm not from the medical industry so I ball parked they triple shares outstanding to get to an operating company and the upside is still enormous "IF" they get approved. There is another person posting on this board who sounds like he does have a medical background or more experience with drug stocks who makes a compelling case that dilution will be much less and profit margins much higher than I ball parked.
Looking at the two main products; the scaffold and the proprietary bioreactor on their web site, and factoring in we're only talking about 6K-7K patients per year, I think he may be right. He also makes a good argument, and one management makes as well, that HART's chances of approval should be much greater than most companies, because they already have proof of concept due to the compassionate care cases.
Thanks again for your help what ever your position is in HART.
Unfortunately Yahoo won't even allow cut and paste anymore. The last line is:
FDA Orphan Drug Status: Not Approved.
Pending or Rejected?
You forgot the last line. Does this mean the request is still pending or it's been rejected? I'm out if it's been rejected.
Management had been guiding for U.S. Orphan Drug status approvals in June. This is probably their main moat as it gives them 10 years exclusivity in the U.S. Europe has their own version for 7 years (or I might have them backwards). In any event June has come and gone however they updated the process on their cc. The FDA requested additional information regarding their compassionate care patients. Most of these patients were treated in Russia and apparently it is hard to get information from Russia so management was only able to get the information the FDA requested in June, however they expect to get an answer on orphan drug status in the coming weeks.
According to David Green the primary obstacle to getting this status is the number of patients. To qualify you need a patient pool less than 200K. At a market of ~6K for their trachea product they've already cleared this hurdle. I'm not in the medical field so I can't say how likely this approval is, however I believe all but two of the patients who received their proprietary trachea still survive and the two that passed away did so of unrelated causes. One was an auto accident and the second was a two year old girl who died during an unrelated surgery.
It would seem to me results from compassionate care would support orphan drug status however I did notice management seemed more cautious in talking about this approval. They seemed in the past to almost assume this approval was a foregone conclusion. On the cc David Green just spoke of getting a determination on orphan drug status leaving open the possibility they don't get approved. I don't know if he's just getting more cautious as D-day gets close or something in his correspondence with the FDA spooked him but I think the street picked up on this as well and is probably behind recent weakness. This one is probably a binary event on this approval for now. Get orphan drug status and were in for a big move up, don't get it and look out below.
Just being able to raise (or appear to be able to raise) the $590M doesn't mean the NON BINDING offer goes through.
Probably had to show they could get financing for the deal and that's the best they could do.
A good chance insiders were behind the buying after they downgraded to the "Auditor to the Frauds", to cash in on this news.
A. They're not Legit.
B. The offer is fake although a great opportunity for longs to salvage something
C. They're assets are untouchable due to the VIE, what are you going to sue for?
Dude you realize he would have built his position BEFORE he put out his research on NQ or in the $20's. Even if this were a real offer (it ain't) he's made a killing outing this fraud.
LMAO CC I knew this was coming, after pimping this fraud to no end in the teens and twenties you suddenly have a cost basis of $3.5. Who do you think you're fooling CC?
If you listened to me in the teens and twenties you would have done a lot better than the "opportunity" to cut your losses. Hopefully you are smart enough to take this gift before it disappears.
This offer is a gift to longs, NQ is a fraud, you're getting a chance to get out with something left to salvage. It's a fake offer so don't get greedy holding out for the whole $9.8.
Specifically, NQ Mobile has signed a definitive agreement to sell up to 5.88% of FL Mobile, or up to a total of $25 million, consisting of $15 million to Bison Mobile Limited, a division of Bison Capital Co Ltd and $10 million from other investors, at a pre-money valuation of $400 million dollars or post-money valuation of $425 million
One more time if...if this doesn't work find the Bison minority investment in FL Mobile valuing the one segment at $425M
At 60.33M shares outstanding and $9.8/ share that puts NQ's market cap at $591M based on todays fake offer or just 39% more than Bison supposedly valued just FL Mobile. What a Bargain!