Okay, facts. We know an interim analysis is coming. I think it was a bit sooner than expected. That means one thing, people are dying sooner. That is a very sad fact about clinical trials. So, which arm are the deaths most likely occurring? Looking at the PII, I would be inclined to say the control arm. Not all, but most. However, there have been several trials where the control did as good or better than the treatment arm. I think that is more unlikely here as both arms are based on the same drug. Safety and side effects appear better in the treatment arm, also. So, assuming we see IDMC says let the trial continue, what happens to the PPS? There are calls here anywhere from $.50 to $5 overnight. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, which would not be a bad base to build on, Could the trial be halted for overwhelming efficacy? It's possible but not probable. That is the exception more than the rule. So, we will all know soon enough.
You may want to look at ADXS. It's been beaten down recently but PII data is being released on the 17th by the GOG. May have a run up.
I've read that post. It was very informative and thank you immensely for all the work you put into it. I would prefer a later date for the 70th event. I believe the longer, the better in this case and management was predicting Q4 / Q1. This guy, though, is declaring we'll hear about it on the 29th. I suppose it's possible but I just don't think it's probable.
So, when did the 70th event occur? You can't seem to answer that.
I'm assuming if the results were not very good, the wording in the PR would have been toned down.
If the data stays as strong as it has in previous phases, there is nothing that any short will be able to do. Or any hit piece on SA, either. Nothing can trump a fact borne out by scientific support. I don't know if it's written into the SPA that the trial can be cut short for overwhelming efficacy but, if any vaccine is worthy of that happening, this is it. This, and the coming years, are going to be dawn of new and better treatments for cancer. I think GALE is well-positioned for success. We'll know soon enough.
"Is immunotherapy ready for prime time in breast cancer?" "Yes". I think that's a big game changer from a very respected and influential person. This is a volatile day but GALE is holding up. Looking forward to seeing more 301 data. This may prove to be a pivotal year for GALE's success.
So far, we know that 7 women in the GOG study have reached 12 month survival for a 27% rate. There are 6 women being treated who had not yet reached 12 months as of Feb, per slide 14 of the latest corporate presentation. If we assume 2 more women have reached 12 month survival, that boosts the percentage to 35% roughly (math is not my strong point, please feel free to educate me). So, what would a reasonable market reaction be to the PPS? I am fairly conservative when it comes predictions but I would love to see $20. Any thoughts? All long's opinions are welcome.
hillgoat60 • Aug 17, 2015 2:24 PM Flag
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Chart, Q2 are all bullish
heading to $2 this week. Load your boats up folks.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well, your call on AVXL was so accurate, me must all listen to you.
This could start the turn around of the PPS. Without tipping her hand, Dr. M has gone from 'hopeful' and 'promising' to "ready for prime time". I would not be surprised to see other companies, like Advaxis, start to advance also, The coming year(s) bode well for cancer sufferers and shareholders. That's a win-win for me.
There was really nothing noteworthy she could have said as the trial is still continuing. Calls for a massive run-up today had no basis in fact. I think some were saying interim results would be released next month but I don't see that happening, either. In this case, the later the interim results the better. Eventually, the science will win out or not. The management has made missteps along the way but that shouldn't impugn the drug. It's all about the outcome of the trial.
I'm guessing "...don't give any information out on drugs in development" means it has NOT been denied. On-going dialogue between Advaxis and FDA still continuing?
Well, wisdom is not normally an attribute I associate myself with but I will say I believe DO went with a higher royalty rate in lieu of upfront cash. How high? We know it's double digits so 10% or above. DO is not stupid and has many shares. I don't think he would screw himself. Us, maybe but not himself. In this instance, I think his interests are aligned with ours. All my own opinion. Wisdom sold separately in finer stores everywhere.