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Solar Capital Ltd. (SLRC) Message Board

mysonchino 148 posts  |  Last Activity: May 3, 2015 4:56 PM Member since: Dec 4, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Opportunity

    by mysonchino May 3, 2015 10:29 AM
    mysonchino mysonchino May 3, 2015 4:56 PM Flag

    Yes and it will be long term. It isn't easy to make 14% with pps appreciation on top of that. However, it patience is the watchword. If they make their .16 this qtr and .17 next then I think public opinion will start to change. They seem to be doing things right. They are trying to be extremely transparent. I think Cohen can see it and gets a little ahead of himself. But this is what provides the opportunity. If they really have turned it around and the price is over 6 three years down the road it will be a very nice total return. It will also be a lot of money for those who accumulated a lot of shares. GLTA

  • mysonchino mysonchino May 3, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    Pacman is an attention seeking kid who changes his "investment predictions " as often as people change their underwear. Follow his self aggrandizing advice at your peril.

  • mysonchino by mysonchino May 3, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    I once owned a stock much like RSO. No one wanted it.Even when things turned around and the future was apparent it languished. I bought more it went down again. The numbers kept looking good it kept going down. I kept buying more because it was a financial and once you turn a portfolio around and it is earning money it's a little bit like an oil tanker and hard to change course once the direction is set. One day for what ever reason the stock began to get noticed and it started to go up. then when the numbers would come out it went up some more. My point is don't worry so much about what the PPS of RSO may be. If the numbers look good and the projections, backlog or pipeline are solid then focus on the future. If RSO has affo of .16 or better as the analysts and things are moving in the right direction I will buy more. Remember we are getting paid 14%+ to hold this stock. I get a little tired when people post "what good is the dividend when the PPS keeps going down"? Here is a secret, you don't have to sell it today, tomorrow or next year. Actually you never have to sell it until you decide you want to so if it is down don't sell . Wait. It may take years but as long as we can collect .16 div each qtr someday the PPS will be higher and we will have been paid to wait. GLTA!

  • Reply to

    Reluctantly bought RSO this morning @ $4.49

    by marionpolk2000 Apr 23, 2015 11:51 AM
    mysonchino mysonchino Apr 24, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    Hang in there Seeds. Its going to get better. RSO will make the .16 and next qtr it will be .17. Then it will .38 over the combined last 2 qtrs. I know you are frustrated but its going to turn. GL

  • Reply to

    RSO

    by frontfields Apr 22, 2015 2:55 PM
    mysonchino mysonchino Apr 22, 2015 11:55 PM Flag

    The analysts earnings projections are .16 for the 1st qtr and .17 for the second qtr and .71 for 2015. Affo could be different of course. Regardless, best not to expect too much. Mr Cohen has over promised for far too long. The only way to rehabilitate himself is to hit the analysts numbers quarter after qtr to gain credibility. Not better nor worse. I truly believe we will see numbers that are massaged to do this. Of course it is just my opinion and that along with 2.00 dollars will get you a beer most places in Mazatlan. But--- I think the corner has been turned and if sufficient patience is exercised things will be better by year end. GLTA.

  • Reply to

    RSO

    by frontfields Apr 22, 2015 2:55 PM
    mysonchino mysonchino Apr 22, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    Just be patient with rso. Earnings/affo will be .16. this will meet expectations but disappoint others. By the end of the year things will look better and be moving in the right direction. GL.

  • mysonchino mysonchino Apr 21, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    Seeds, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. The analysts say .16. They say .17 next qtr and 71 for the year and .81 next year. Why expect more than this? If RSO makes these numbers we will have a .72 doc by the end of next year and probably be looking at a 6.00+ share price. You have waited a long time don't get impatient now. .16 is what it will be. The numbers are going to come out exactly as the analysts call them, at least this year. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    will they increase the dividend?

    by mysonchino Apr 16, 2015 11:30 AM
    mysonchino mysonchino Apr 16, 2015 9:18 PM Flag

    You are probably correct. 14.5% is an exceptional dividend. The company appears solid with adequate coverage. I own some along with EARN NYMT ORC and WMC. Thinking of increasing my merit sector by another .75% and believe this may be the best bet for high and continuing dividends. Opinions welcome. TIA

  • projected earnings provide more than enough coverage for the dividend according to analysts projections. Any thought as to an increase or a special?

  • mysonchino by mysonchino Apr 15, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    Nice to see RSO move up with the market and then some. I took the press release yesterday as good news. I really doubt they would publish such a positive update if earnings/affo were going to disappoint. I still am looking for .16 as the analysts have projected. I think and hope that going forward Mr Cohen simply informs the analysts appropriately and then hits their numbers. If he does that for 2 or 3 quarters things will work out much better than spewing false hope. GLTA

  • Reply to

    OK, I"m familiar with

    by bobdbeck Apr 14, 2015 7:23 PM
    mysonchino mysonchino Apr 14, 2015 10:22 PM Flag

    Bob, good to hear from you. I have been in Rso for years but have recently decided that Mr Cohen has come to grips with reality and the stock has taken its lumps. I have just made Rso my largest holding. Obviously I believe the doc is now safe and I anticipate very slow growth. Maybe a cent per quarter per year. There are convertibles out there at 5.35 but add the difference back on top of the dividends and you have a 20% total return. This stock should provide solid income, growing NAV and modestly increasing pps.

    I think it may sell off a bit when earnings are released because even though analysts are calling for .16 many are hoping for more. I don't think that will happen. It's controlled numbers going forward.

    Another prospect is Newt. You have to read the CEOs message from a few months ago when they converted to a BDC to get a feel for the company. Newt is going to provide nothing but positives every quarter plus a special div already framed out. A 10% yield with a 20% pps upside within 12 months.

    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    loan originations update

    by theo2_2004 Apr 14, 2015 4:19 PM
    mysonchino mysonchino Apr 14, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    Stoner, keep adding to position. Unless they are completely misrepresenting the facts affo and earnings will rise. SLOWLY! That's ok. With slow positive results we can continue to add and collect an out sized dividend. The business model has changed dramatically and at some point the market will no longer require RSO to pay such a high dividend. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    loan originations update

    by theo2_2004 Apr 14, 2015 4:19 PM
    mysonchino mysonchino Apr 14, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    The .80 will come back. We will get a penny this year a penny next year and 2 cents by the end of 2017. Now I can look forward to some troll with nothing to do in life to remind me I said this (if I'm wrong)

  • Reply to

    Hows The Stock Repurchase Going...

    by your.jim72 Apr 11, 2015 8:28 AM
    mysonchino mysonchino Apr 13, 2015 11:18 PM Flag

    Bonzo, I own some RAS and am waiting to see what first qtr looks like to determine if I buy more. Trying to find high yield with the possibility of dividend increases. I like NEWT, NRZ, ARI, RSO and RAS in this regard. Good luck.

  • mysonchino by mysonchino Apr 13, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    jumped in for more this morning and increased position by .33%. Now I think I have enough as it is my largest holding. Hope I'm right on this on this one. Should have a pretty good idea by mid August. Analysts are looking for .16 this qtr and .17 for 2nd qtr with .71 for the year. If this happens RSO should get pps appreciation and a .01 wryly doc increase. There may be a little sell pressure in May as some are too optimistic and are hoping for more than .16. If it performs to analysts expectations I'll be elated as they have 2016 at .81 which at a 90% payout would be a .72 dividend. Assuming a 12% yield and its a $6.00 pps.

    Anyway, enough cheer leading. Just wanted to verify I put my money where my mouth is. GLTA

  • Reply to

    So How Much RSO is Enough

    by mysonchino Apr 11, 2015 6:53 PM
    mysonchino mysonchino Apr 12, 2015 10:55 PM Flag

    Ken, I hear you. I did quite well on one financial stock myself and it took some false starts and a lot of patience. Then I sold the stock and invested in equity reits. Always aimed for a 10% yield and bought a bunch as well as the Cohen and Steers closed end funds. I was almost 100% in equity reits and did very well. Should have left well enough alone but sold the equity reits instead to be more conservative and invested in banks and retail mortgage companies. Lost my@&$ in the downturn. Many positions disappeared. So now I'm back with large positions in several stocks. I like NRZ RSO NEWT PNNT ARI MCC BDCL CEFL some residential mortgage reits. And about 30% in equity option income funds mostly S&P Stuff.

    Going forward I think individual companies that pay a large div will be the place to be because I think the market can go sideways for a long time. It took the Dow about 15 years to cross 1,000 and then cross it again. With a 14% yield on RSO it can go sideways forever and you still win. I've been optimistic before and been wrong but. I think they really have turned the corner. Should know quite solidly by early August. GLTA.

  • Reply to

    Hows The Stock Repurchase Going...

    by your.jim72 Apr 11, 2015 8:28 AM
    mysonchino mysonchino Apr 12, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    I am considering getting out of ticc. I own oxlc and am much happier with it. Problem is repalcing the income. Even assuming another cut to 1.00 it's still close to a 15% yield. I am looking at replacing it with a bit more rso as I think they have turned the corner, maybe a little oaks and some ari solid but lower yield. With RSO and ARI i think dividends will increase minimally over time but increase. OAKS, good yield but increases not likely. Ticc will cut again and then maybe once more. I guess I am on the fence with OAKS maybe pnnt instead. Any thoughts would be welcome. Need to exercise the brain a bit on this one. TIA

  • Reply to

    So How Much RSO is Enough

    by mysonchino Apr 11, 2015 6:53 PM
    mysonchino mysonchino Apr 12, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    stoner, analysts are predicting .16 for the first quarter and .17 for the second quarter. The have 2015 at .71 so they are anticipating improving earnings over the year. They have 2016 at .81. to hit .71 this year with .16 the 1st qtr and .17 the 2nd means we have to be at .18 and .20 for 3rd and 4th quarters or .19 for both 3rd and 4th quarter. Looks like they think .19 for 3rd and 4th with earnings growth of .01 per quarter in 3 quarters out of 4 in 2016.

    If the analysts have it correct then 2016 div should be .72 by year end 2016 yield should come down to 12% which would result in a 6.00 share price. Analysts are at a 5.56 one year target price so 6.00 in 20 months doesn't seem out of line. If IF IF IF this is correct RSO should return an annualized rates of return of over 35% by the end of next year. I"m at about 6.75% of portfolio and considering going up to 7.65 and average up to 9%. Not something I would advise others to do but it seems that this just might have become a true get rich slow stock and get a great income at the same time. IMHO. GLTA

  • analysts predict a 20% increase in pps within the next 12 months. Earnings are pegged to be .81 in 2016. At 90% div x earnings puts us at a .72 div. that's an .08 increase over current annual div. the current yield is already over 14%. But if the div goes up 8 cents by the end of 2016 that's about a 13% increase. I have quite a bit of RSO and keep buying for the dividend. Price appreciation would be nice but if it just got to 5.00 and stayed there forever and sustained a .72 div I would be extremely happy.

    So here is the question. How much RSO is enough? 1%, 4%, 7% or up to 10% of portfolio? I realize 7 and 10% are too much to be prudent but I have always made the most money by being very overweighted in a stock and or sector or both and been right. Too much diversification provides middle of the road returns. Anxious to hear from serious RSO investors.

  • Reply to

    Hows The Stock Repurchase Going...

    by your.jim72 Apr 11, 2015 8:28 AM
    mysonchino mysonchino Apr 11, 2015 9:54 AM Flag

    very disappointing price performance. It seems odd when both TICC and OXLC are managed by the same people. If we're simply being pulled down by CLO performance or fears then both companies should suffer which is not the case.

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