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Affymax, Inc. Message Board

mystockisfalling 127 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 8, 2016 5:02 PM Member since: Dec 5, 2007
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  • mystockisfalling mystockisfalling Jun 8, 2016 5:02 PM Flag

    I've been comparing Sarepta to Dendreon for a while now. And they're similar in more ways than just an offering.

    The fact is, Sarepta should do an offering NOW before it tanks, after FDA rejection or compassionate use.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Do or Die

    by joelwilson46 Jun 2, 2016 3:24 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling Jun 2, 2016 3:37 PM Flag

    You're wasting your money. Approval is not going to happen.

    The FDA doesn't care whether or not BMRN is in the game. They don't care if Sarepta is profitable. You're looking at the whole situation from either a trader's or public's point of view. That is why you will fail.

    I haven't seen any long that is able to see the situation from the FDA's point of view. And that's the ONLY view that matters.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Hmmmm

    by mystockisfalling Jun 2, 2016 3:01 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling Jun 2, 2016 3:13 PM Flag

    The drug process has never been about saving life.

    But politics is involved. So I suspect compassionate use will absolve the FDA of being heartless. It's their middle ground. The truth is they really don't care...but it's about image.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Approval is near

    by bronsonouest Jun 2, 2016 2:46 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling Jun 2, 2016 3:10 PM Flag

    Nope. Approval will not happen.

    This reminds me of longs who thought Provenge/Dendreon was going to make them rich. They kept hoping, even while the stock tumbled week after week. In their minds, they could rationalize every excuse for the drop.

    The same thing is happening with Etep/Sarepta. Clueless longs with visions of $40-$60 stock price overnight.

    The FDA pretty much stated that they will NOT approve. From their point of view it will be a nightmare for them should they approve. So speaking to their future they will not approve Etep. It's sooo simple.

    However, they may work it out so that compassionate use is an option without compromising the integrity of the process.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • mystockisfalling by mystockisfalling Jun 2, 2016 3:01 PM Flag

    It is sooooo obvious that the FDA does NOT want to open Pandora's box. MOST longs on this board can't look at it from the FDA's vantage point. And there lies their problem.

    Etep will NOT get approval. Perhaps "compassionate use" at best. They really really really want to find a middle ground without compromising the process.

    That is the truth.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    compassionate use

    by samizm123 May 26, 2016 2:10 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling Jun 2, 2016 2:57 PM Flag

    So, what I and a few others thought as a possibility may actually play out. It isn't too hard to figure out when one is OBJECTIVE. Most people trading biotechs should give it up. YOU folks will lose in the long run

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • mystockisfalling mystockisfalling May 30, 2016 1:58 PM Flag

    It has not been proven to be safe. The extremely small cherry picked sample size is not a good indicator. Contrary to what many believe, we still don't know how the immune system will react in a larger randomized trial.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • mystockisfalling mystockisfalling May 30, 2016 1:47 PM Flag

    Spot on. It's only about money. This is a finance board.

    If the longs really cared about the kids, they would have no problems with a Compassionate Use ruling. In fact, they would welcome it. After all, it's really about the kids for them

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    hmmmm

    by mystockisfalling May 29, 2016 12:37 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling May 30, 2016 1:40 PM Flag

    The Depp issue concerns me. If it escalates, it may have an effect on next year's Pirates of the Caribbean box office.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mystockisfalling by mystockisfalling May 29, 2016 12:37 PM Flag

    Zootopia is sooo close to $1Billion. Just needs another $9 million worldwide.

    Alice looks to flop. With a weak opening weekend, I don't think it'll do more than $130 domestically. Perhaps foreign box office will save it? I hope so.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    good entry point for DIS and PSX today

    by cramerstrophywife May 26, 2016 12:00 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling May 26, 2016 5:02 PM Flag

    Good move. I plan to do the same on June 2nd with DIS.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    compassionate use

    by samizm123 May 26, 2016 2:10 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling May 26, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    "...that would have serious consequences for sure for the entire biotech sector.."

    No it wouldn't because NOTHING will have changed. Compassionate use is part of the standard protocol.

    On the other hand, outright approval will change everything for the FDA.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    compassionate use

    by samizm123 May 26, 2016 2:10 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling May 26, 2016 3:48 PM Flag

    You make a lot of assumptions about things you know nothing about. If you have a problem with my post, state your objections to what was stated. Personal attacks are the products of a weak mind. I have no patience for it.

    So I will just ignore you like a mosquito.
    Shoo Go Away.
    Click "ignore"
    done.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    compassionate use

    by samizm123 May 26, 2016 2:10 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling May 26, 2016 3:44 PM Flag

    BTW Big Pharma will not stop investing in new drugs. They will just follow the FDA's protocols as usual. Nothing changes.

    If Etep were to get approval, that will change everything. It will be a nightmare for the FDA to address every company that wants to cut corners. They will use Etep as a precedent.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    compassionate use

    by samizm123 May 26, 2016 2:10 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling May 26, 2016 3:41 PM Flag

    They save face by not giving in, by not altering the protocol for the process, while at the same time "giving in". In other words, by allowing compassionate use they satisfy the parents and politicians. But they don't have to compromise their process and protocols. They won't have h3ll to pay for every other company that wants to cut corners.

    EVERYBODY thinks that it's either TOTAL rejection or TOTAL approval. Compassionate use may very well be the answer.

    It wouldn't surprise me.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    compassionate use

    by samizm123 May 26, 2016 2:10 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling May 26, 2016 3:26 PM Flag

    The FDA wants to reject ETEP. It has not been shown that any perceived benefit from the cherry picked sample was attributed to ETEP. That is the truth.

    BUT the FDA is weighing enormous political pressure against it's standard protocol. If it gives in, it will open Pandora's box. Biotechs and Big Pharma will demand that they be allowed to cut corners too...especially if they're working on a treatment for a debilitating disease.

    So (maybe) compassionate use may be THE COMPROMISE. From the vantage point of the FDA, they couldn't care less if Sarepta is a viable entity. They will have satisfied the public's demand that they aren't heartless. At the same time, they are sending a message to other companies that if you want to make money, you don't cut corners. In essence, the FDA will save "face".

    SRPT will tumble but not as much as it would have with outright rejection. All option buyers get wiped out. Option writers make out like a bandit.

    Yeah, this scenario could very well be how it's played out.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • mystockisfalling by mystockisfalling May 25, 2016 2:03 PM Flag

    Wow, the trailer drew a HUUUGE number of views. Almost 92 million views in the first 24 hours...a record.

    Like Titanic or Avatar, it's a love story that may do $2 billion worldwide. I will definitely add to my DIS position on June 2nd...after my funds clear.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    FDA problem

    by musherga May 25, 2016 12:38 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling May 25, 2016 1:41 PM Flag

    The patients were cherry picked. Also, it's not that improvements weren't seen in the small cherry picked sample, it's the issue of whether Etep was responsible for any perceived benefit. That has not been proven.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    FDA problem

    by musherga May 25, 2016 12:38 PM
    mystockisfalling mystockisfalling May 25, 2016 12:55 PM Flag

    Etep has not been proven to work. I know it's hard to think otherwise, but it's the truth.

    I believe the real issue is that most of the FDA staffers want to reject but are being opposed by a couple of reviewers who want to approve. So like a jury trial, they can't come to a consensus. And need an extension.

    In the end, I think Etep will get rejected.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • mystockisfalling by mystockisfalling May 25, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    Nice pop. Soon it will be time to load up on puts. Glad I didn't get any options yet.

    Unfortunately, since we don't know when the verdict will be known, I may have to get puts that expire in July or Aug. They've dropped in price after today's pop in shareprice.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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